How do the weak win wars? The likelihood of victory and defeat in asymmetric conflicts depends on the interaction of the strategies weak and strong actors use. Using statistical and in-depth historical analyses of conflicts spanning two hundred years, Ivan Arregúin-Toft shows that, independent of regime type and weapons technology, the interaction of similar strategic approaches favors strong actors, while opposite strategic approaches favors the weak. This new approach to understanding asymmetric conflicts allows us to makes sense of how the United States was able to win its war in Afghanistan (2002) in a few months, while the Soviet Union lost after a decade of brutal war (1979–1989). Arreguín-Toft’s strategic interaction theory has implications not only for international relations theory, but for policy makers grappling with interstate and civil wars, as well as terrorism.
• Engages both academic and policy audiences on an important and timely topic: how the weak defeat the strong • The book’s theory can be applied to a broad range of conflicts, including business competition and terrorism • The book combines a broad statistical analysis with in-depth historical case studies
Contents
List of figures; Preface; Acknowledgements; List of abbreviations; 1. Introduction; 2. Explaining asymmetric conflict outcomes; 3. Russia in the Caucasus: the Murid War, 1830–1859; 4. Britain in Orange Free State and Transvaal: the South African War, 1899–1902; 5. Italy in Ethiopia: the Italo-Ethiopian War, 1935–1940; 6. The United States in Vietnam: the Vietnam War, 1965–1973; 7. The USSR in Afghanistan: the Afghan Civil War, 1979–1989; 8. Conclusion; Appendix; References; Index.
Review
'Arreguín-Toft has made a major contribution to the literature on a fascinating and very timely subject. How the Weak Win Wars should be required reading not only for International Relations scholars but also for would be US presidents who still do not grasp the limits of American military power now on display in Iraq.' Survival
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