| List of Contributors |
page vii |
| PART I INTRODUCTION |
|
| 1. |
|
Taking the Interface between Mind and Environment Seriously |
3 |
| |
|
Klaus Fiedler and Peter Juslin |
|
| PART II THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS |
|
| 2. |
|
Good Sampling, Distorted Views: The Perception of Variability |
33 |
| |
|
Yaakov Kareev |
|
| 3. |
|
Intuitive Judgments about Sample Size |
53 |
| |
|
Peter Sedlmeier |
|
| 4. |
|
The Role of Information Sampling in Risky Choice |
72 |
| |
|
Ralph Hertwig, Greg Barron, Elke U. Weber, and Ido Erev |
|
| 5. |
|
Less Is More in Covariation Detection – Or Is It? |
92 |
| |
|
Peter Juslin, Klaus Fiedler, and Nick Chater |
|
| PART III BIASED AND UNBIASED JUDGMENTS FROM BIASED SAMPLES |
|
| 6. |
|
Subjective Validity Judgments as an Index of Sensitivity to Sampling Bias |
127 |
| |
|
Peter Freytag and Klaus Fiedler |
|
| 7. |
|
An Analysis of Structural Availability Biases, and a Brief Study |
147 |
| |
|
Robyn M. Dawes |
|
| 8. |
|
Subjective Confidence and the Sampling of Knowledge |
153 |
| |
|
Joshua Klayman, Jack B. Soll, Peter Juslin, and Anders Winman |
|
| 9. |
|
Contingency Learning and Biased Group Impressions |
183 |
| |
|
Thorsten Meiser |
|
| 10. |
|
Mental Mechanisms: Speculations on Human Causal Learning and Reasoning |
210 |
| |
|
Nick Chater and Mike Oaksford |
|
| PART IV WHAT INFORMATION CONTENTS ARE SAMPLED? |
|
| 11. |
|
What’s in a Sample? A Manual for Building Cognitive Theories |
239 |
| |
|
Gerd Gigerenzer |
|
| 12. |
|
Assessing Evidential Support in Uncertain Environments |
261 |
| |
|
Chris M. White and Derek J. Koehler |
|
| 13. |
|
Information Sampling in Group Decision Making: Sampling Biases and Their Consequences |
299 |
| |
|
Andreas Mojzisch and Stefan Schulz-Hardt |
|
| 14. |
|
Confidence in Aggregation of Opinions from Multiple Sources |
327 |
| |
|
David V. Budescu |
|
| 15. |
|
Self as Sample |
353 |
| |
|
Joachim I. Krueger, Melissa Acevedo, and Jordan M. Robbins |
|
| PART V VICISSITUDES OF SAMPLING IN THE RESEARCHER’S MIND AND METHOD |
|
| 16. |
|
Which World Should Be Represented in Representative Design? |
381 |
| |
|
Ulrich Hoffrage and Ralph Hertwig |
|
| 17. |
|
“I’m m/n Confident That I’m Correct”: Confidence in Foresight and Hindsight as a Sampling Probability |
409 |
| |
|
Anders Winman and Peter Juslin |
|
| 18. |
|
Natural Sampling of Stimuli in (Artificial) Grammar Learning |
440 |
| |
|
Fenna H. Poletiek |
|
| 19. |
|
Is Confidence in Decisions Related to Feedback? Evidence from Random Samples of Real-World Behavior |
456 |
| |
|
Robin M. Hogarth |
|
| Index |
485 |
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