MATCHED SAMPLING FOR CAUSAL EFFECTS

Matched sampling is often used to help assess the causal effect of some exposure or intervention, typically when randomized experiments are not available or cannot be conducted for ethical or other reasons. This book presents a selection of Donald B. Rubin’s research articles on matched sampling, from the early 1970s, when the author was one of the few researchers involved in establishing the statistical foundations of the field, to recent contributions in this now extremely active area. The articles include fundamental theoretical studies that have become classics, important extensions, and real applications that range from breast cancer treatments to tobacco litigation to studies of criminal tendencies. They are organized into seven parts, each with an introduction by the author that provides historical and personal context and discusses the relevance of the work today. A concluding essay offers advice to investigators designing observational studies.

   The book provides an accessible introduction to the study of matched sampling and will be an indispensable reference for students and researchers in statistics, epidemiology, medicine, economics, education, sociology, political science, and anyone doing empirical research to evaluate the causal effects of interventions.

Professor Donald B. Rubin is the John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at Harvard University. Professor Rubin is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, the Institute for Mathematical Statistics, the International Statistical Institute, the Woodrow Wilson Society, the John Simon Guggenheim Society, the New York Academy of Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is also the recipient of the Samuel S. Wilks Medal of the American Statistical Association, the Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation, and the Fisher Lectureship. Professor Rubin has lectured extensively throughout the United States, Europe, and Asia. He has more than 300 publications (including several books) on a variety of statistical topics and is one of the top ten highly cited writers in mathematics in the world, according to ISI Science Watch.

MATCHED SAMPLING FOR CAUSAL EFFECTS

DONALD B. RUBIN
Harvard University

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© Cambridge University Press 2006

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First published 2006

Printed in the United States of America

A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Rubin, Donald B.
Matched sampling for causal effects / Donald B. Rubin.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-521-85762-8 (hardback)
ISBN-10: 0-521-85762-7 (hardback)
ISBN-13: 978-0-521-67436-2 (pbk.)
ISBN-10: 0-521-67436-0 (pbk.)
1. Sampling (Statistics) 2. Statistical matching. I. Title.
HA31.2.R82    2006
001.4^′33 – dc22    2006011564

ISBN-13 978-0-521-85762-8 hardback
ISBN-10 0-521-85762-7 hardback

ISBN-13 978-0-521-67436-2 paperback
ISBN-10 0-521-67436-0 paperback

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the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or
third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication
and does not guarantee that any content on such
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Contents

Contributor Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank his co-authors for their contributions to the publications and, where appropriate, their permission to reprint the articles in this book. Current affiliations are listed when known.

William G. Cochran

Paul R. Rosenbaum, The Wharton School, The University of Pennsylvania

Neal Thomas, Pfizer, Statistical Research and Consulting Center

Jennifer L. Hill, Columbia University

Ralph B. D’Agostino, Jr., Wake Forest University School of Medicine

June Machover Reinisch, The Kinsey Institute for Research in Sex, Gender, and Reproduction; Institute of Preventive Medicine, Danish Epidemiological Science Center, Copenhagen University; Vice President of Scientific Affairs, The Museum of Sex

Stephanie A. Sanders, The Kinsey Institute for Research in Sex, Gender, and Reproduction, Indiana University

Martin W. McIntosh, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, University of Washington

Paul W. Holland, Educational Testing Service

Sarnoff A. Mednick, University of Southern California

Herman A. Witkin
Fini Schulsinger
Eskild Bakkestrøm
Karl O. Christiansen
Donald R. Goodenough
Kurt Hirschhorn
Claes Lundsteen
David R. Owen
John Philip
Martha Stocking
Erik Lykke Mortensen

MATCHED SAMPLING FOR CAUSAL EFFECTS