How the Weak Win Wars

Cambridge University Press
0521839769 - How the Weak Win Wars - A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict - by Ivan Arreguín-Toft
Frontmatter/Prelims

How the Weak Win Wars

How do the weak win wars? The likelihood of victory and defeat in asymmetric conflicts depends on the interaction of the strategies weak and strong actors use. Using statistical and in-depth historical analyses of conflicts spanning two hundred years, Ivan Arreguín-Toft shows that, independent of regime type and weapons technology, the interaction of similar strategic approaches favors strong actors, while opposite strategic approaches favor the weak. This new approach to understanding asymmetric conflicts allows us to makes sense of how the United States was able to win its war in Afghanistan (2002) in a few months, while the Soviet Union lost after a decade of brutal war (1979–1989). Arreguín-Toft’s strategic interaction theory has implications not only for international relations theory, but for policymakers grappling with interstate and civil wars, as well as terrorism.

IVAN ARREGUÍN-TOFT is Fellow in the International Security Program, at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. He has authored numerous conference papers and his articles have appeared in International Security and the Cambridge Review of International Affairs. He is a veteran of the US Army where he served in Augsburg, Germany as a military intelligence analyst from 1985 to 1987.

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CAMBRIDGE STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: 99

How the Weak Win Wars

A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict

Editorial Board

Steve Smith (Managing editor)

Thomas Biersteker Phil Cerny Michael Cox

A. J. R. Groom Richard Higgott Kimberley Hutchings

Caroline Kennedy-Pipe Steve Lamy Michael Mastanduno

Louis Pauly Ngaire Woods

Cambridge Studies in International Relations is a joint initiative of Cambridge University Press and the British International Studies Association (BISA). The series will include a wide range of material, from undergraduate textbooks and surveys to research-based monographs and collaborative volumes. The aim of the series is to publish the best new scholarship in International Studies from Europe, North America and the rest of the world.

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CAMBRIDGE STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

100 Michael C. Williams
       The Realist Tradition and the Limits of International Relations

99 Ivan Arreguín-Toft
       How the Weak Win Wars
       A theory of asymmetric conflict

98 Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall (eds.)
       Power in Global Governance

97 Yale H. Ferguson and Richard W. Mansbach
       Remapping Global Politics
       History’s revenge and future shock

96 Christian Reus-Smit (ed.)
       The Politics of International Law

95 Barry Buzan
       From International to World Society?
       English School theory and the social structure of globalisation

94 K. J. Holsti
       Taming the Sovereigns
       Institutional change in international politics

93 Bruce Cronin
       Institutions for the Common Good
       International protection regimes in international society

92 Paul Keal
       European Conquest and the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
       The moral backwardness of international society

91 Barry Buzan and Ole Wœver
       Regions and Powers
       The structure of international security

90 A. Claire Cutler
       Private Power and Global Authority
       Transnational merchant law in the global political economy

Series list continued after index

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How the Weak Win Wars:

A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict

Ivan Arreguín-Toft

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CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press,
New York

www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521548694

© Ivan Arreguín-Toft 2005

This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2005

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Arreguín-Toft, Ivan.
How the weak win wars: a theory of asymmetric conflict / Ivan Arreguín-Toft.
 p. cm. – (Cambridge studies in international relations; 99)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0 521-83976-9 – ISBN 0-521-54869-1 (pbk.)
1. Asymmetric warfare – Case studies. 2. Military history, Modern – Case
studies. I. Title. II. Series.

U163.A776 2005
355.4’2 – dc 22  2004058131

ISBN-13 978-0-521-83976-1 hardback

ISBN-10 0-521-83976-9 hardback

ISBN-13 978-0-521-54869-4 paperback

ISBN-10 0-521-54869-1 paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for
the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or
third-party internet websites referred to in this book,
and does not guarantee that any content on such
websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

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To Monica

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Epigraph

Do not press a desperate enemy

Sun Tzu

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Contents

	List of figures				page  x
	Preface				xi
	Acknowledgments				xiii
	List of abbreviations				xv
1	Introduction				1
2	Explaining asymmetric conflict outcomes				23
3	Russia in the Caucasus: the Murid War, 1830–1859				48
4	Britain in Orange Free State and Transvaal: the South African War, 1899–1902				72
5	Italy in Ethiopia: the Italo-Ethiopian War, 1935–1940				109
6	The United States in Vietnam: the Vietnam War, 1965–1973				144
7	The USSR in Afghanistan: the Afghan Civil War, 1979–1989				169
8	Conclusion				200
	Appendix				228
	References				235
	Index				243

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Figures

1	Percentage of asymmetric conflict victories by type of actor, 1800–2003				page 3
2	Percentage of conflict victories by type of actor over time				4
3	Expected effects of strategic interaction on conflict outcomes				39
4	Strategic interaction and asymmetric conflict outcomes, 1800–2003				45
5	Strategic interaction and conflict outcomes when weak actor received no external support				46

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