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9780521879620 - The Paradox of Predictivism - by Eric Christian Barnes
Index
Index
accommodations, evidential 24–5, 82–7, 165
ad hoc theory 11, 46–7, 120
dubious 2–3, 5, 46
glorious 5
Mendeleev and 88, 96–7, 97–101, 101–2, 104–5, 112–13
Worrall and 117
accuracy, probability 207–8
Achinstein, P. 6, 59
ad hoc hypotheses 3, 13–14, 18, 63, 185, 241
see also built to fit explanations
ad hoc theory
accommodations 11, 46–7, 120
endorsements 45
rescues 2–3, 63
adhocery 109
aether theory of nervous system 7–9, 10
agent evaluation 207
agnostic evaluators 106–7
agnostic predictivism 191–4
American Astronomical and Astrophysical Society (AAAS) 103
anthropologists example 213
anti-inductivism 122
anti-realists 16–65, 125–6, 143, 146–7, 152–4, 164, 167, 187
/realists debate 123–4, 126, 142, 163, 166, 186, 242–3
challenge 155–62
anti-superfluity principle (ASP) 127–8, 136–41, 243
Arago, D. F. J. 8
arbitrary conjunctions 25, 120
argon 84
Aristotle 40, 222
assessment, theory see theory evaluation
atomic weights 82, 86, 93, 102, 105
calculation (Km1) 88–90, 97–101, 119
authority 40–1, 245
epistemic 190, 211
pluralism and 33
of science 50–1
auxiliary hypotheses 117, 134–5
Avogadro’s hypothesis 88
background beliefs
arbitrary 174–7, 182–3
common body of 204
comprehensiveness 192–4, 195–7
defined 190
differing 202, 205, 209
empirically adequate 161–2, 164–5
experts and 52, 54, 56–8
Mendeleev’s 87–96, 97–104, 107, 109–13, 119
non-experts and 41, 45, 46–7, 49
novel success and 125, 192–4, 196
observation and 223, 226
per se predictivism and 114
pluralist evaluators 65–6
prior probabilities and 163, 166
probability function and 230, 233–5, 239
scientific community 39, 120
silly 189
success predictivism and 191
theoretical 205–7, 210, 211
true 131–2, 137–9, 144–6, 168–72, 187–9, 193–5, 241
virtuous predictivism and 69–73, 77–8
background knowledge 233, 237
background theories 143–4, 148–9, 151, 155, 164, 167, 187
Bamford, G. 12
Barnes, E. 19, 116, 127
Barrett, J. 59
base rate fallacy 125, 162–6
Bateson, William 150–1, 165
Bayes’ theorem 16, 21, 163, 174, 188, 189, 199
old evidence and 217–18, 221–2, 225, 237–8
virtuous predictivism and 69–80
beliefs, basic 228
see also background beliefs
Bensaude-Vincent, B. 90, 92–3, 96
benzene 147
Berthelot, Marcellin 92, 105, 116
beryllium 105
Berzelius, J. J. 89, 95
biographicalism 6–7, 14–15, 24–6, 140, 187
pluralism and 33
Boyd, Richard 46, 49, 121, 128
miraculous endorsement argument for realism 139, 141, 143–4, 144–62, 243
Boyle, Robert 43
Brush, S. 83–4, 87, 103–4, 105, 108–10
Bryan, William Jennings 50
Bugg, William 52
built to fit explanations 13, 130–1, 132–6, 137, 141, 161, 240
see also ad hoc hypotheses
Callender, C. 125, 155, 162, 243
candidate theories 137, 164–5
Cannizarro, Stanislao 88–9, 97, 100, 119
Cassebaum, H. 93
Cavendish, H. 3
Ceci, S. 215
Chariots of the Gods (von Daniken) 47
Chemical News 108
Chemical Society of London 95
Chihara, C. 220
Christensen, David 232–7
Clarke, F. W. 103
classifiers 93
Clavius, C. 132
Coady, C. A. J. 32
coin flip example 4–5, 17, 19–21, 169–72, 172–3, 173–9
counterpredictors 181–4
Collins, R. 6
communitarian epistemology 32
community see predicting community; scientific communities (SCs)
competence 195–6, 197
comprehensiveness requirement 192–4, 195–7
conditional confirmation 18–19, 116–19
conditional probabilities 182
confirmation theory 14, 18–19, 116–19, 240–2
rebound effect 19
see also novel confirmation
connect the dots example 4, 16
consensus 39, 40–1, 49, 57
experts and 53, 110
forced 46, 50
unforced 43–4
consequentialism, pure 9–15, 18
constructive empiricism 126
Cooke, J. P. 93–4
Copernicus, Nicholas 4, 152, 244
core ideas 18–19, 117, 119, 135, 241
correct probabilities 208
Correns, C. F. J. P 150
counterfactual history 220–1
counterpredictors 181–4
creationism 18–19, 117, 119
creativity 115
credibility 41, 166
agent 33, 205, 207–8, 212
endorser 79, 113, 140
Dallas Cowboys example 31
Darden, L. 115, 149–50
Darwin, Charles 90, 142–3, 154, 160
data overfitting 24–6, 121
data-fitting theories 148
Davy Medal 82–3
de Boisbaudran, Lecoq 100, 104
de Chancourtois, A. B. 93
de Milt, C. 89–90, 96
De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium (Copernicus) 4
de Sitter, W. 53–4
de Vries, H. 150
demarcation problem 9, 12, 122
Descartes, René 8, 32, 98
D.I. Mendeleev et la loi periodique (Kolodkine) 89
diachronic problem 218
direct observation 95, 98
dissolution of predictivism 15–18, 23–4
distinction problem 226–7
divine e-assurance 230–2
divine M-assurance 230
Dixon, Jeane 168, 185
Dobereiner, J. W. 93
dogmatism 45, 62
Doolittle, E. 229
Drake, Stillman 244
dubious accommodations 2–3, 5, 46
Duhem, P. M. M. 128
Dumas, J. B. A. 93
Dyson, F. W. 53–4
e-difference approach 219–20, 221, 228–9, 235–6
e-evidence, h-independent 223–30, 230–2, 236
Earman, J. 31, 53–4, 221
eclipse expedition (Eddington) 107
Eddington, A. S. 53–4, 107
Edwards, P. 152
Eells, E. 220–1, 232–4
Einstein, Albert 17, 53, 71, 107, 109, 132
in 1915 223–30
pure consequentialism and 9–10, 12
eka-aluminum 100
elements and systematic unity (Km2) 90–4, 101–2, 119
emergence of theories 143, 147, 152, 154
emission theory of light 8
empirical adequacy see novel success, truth, empirical adequacy and
empirical knowledge 94–5
empirical success 126, 141, 142–4, 154, 166
endorsement
-novelty 37, 37n, 240
defined 35–6
epistemic significance of 63–4
level probabilities 61, 66, 77, 193, 196
pool of 168
see also miraculous endorsement argument for realism
epistemic authority 190, 211
‘Epistemic Dependence’ (essay) 31
epistemic individualism 110, 189, 242, 243–4
defined 27, 31–2
realists and 166–7, 187–9
romantic ideal of 32, 60
epistemic pluralism 31–59, 190–216, 242
experts 51–8, 244
mapmakers example 197–205, 210–11
mixed weights 212–14
model of theory evaluation 38–51, 195–7
non-experts 166, 244
novelty and 33–8
overview 27–8, 29
probabilistic jury example 205–10, 211
realists and 166–7, 187–9
weighted averaging, objections to 214–16
see also pluralist evaluators
epistemic significance
of endorsement 63, 168, 188, 189
of judgments of scientists 41, 125, 241–2
of novelty 123–4, 140
predictors and 178, 180
of theory construction 115, 117
equivalence claim 157–8
Essay Concerning Human Understanding (Locke) 98
Essays on the Intellectual Power of Man (Reid) 55
Eva examples
Alex and Peter 61–4, 65–9, 70–8, 78–80
Priscilla and Countess 172–3, 179–81, 181–2
evaluation see theory evaluation
evaluators 96
agnostic 106–7
individualist 68, 113–14, 140
see also experts; pluralist evaluators
evidence
-based method 212–14
deletion 220–1, 228
hunch-producing 202
intuition and 170, 202, 226, 232, 234
possession 212–13
private 203–4
redundant 237
sensory 99
sharing 202–5, 206, 208, 211
see also accommodations, evidential; old evidence
evolutionary theory 50–1, 151
examples
anthropologists 213
coin flip 4–5, 17, 19–21, 169–72, 172–3, 173–9, 181–4
Dallas Cowboys 31
Eva, Alex and Peter 61–4, 65–9, 70–8, 78–80
Eva, Priscilla and Countess 172–3, 179–81, 181–2
financial advisor 1, 60, 123, 169
French bread 2–3, 11–12
mapmakers 197–205, 210–11
pharmacologists 212–13
probabilistic jury 205–10, 211
psychic 3–4
experts 39, 51–8, 166, 244
humble 54–6, 111, 244
imperfect 52–4, 107–9, 244
interdisciplinary 51–2, 111, 244
non- 39–51, 125, 166, 244
pluralist 125
reflective 56–8, 110–11
team-member 51–2
falsifiability 9–11, 13, 122
Faraday Lecture 89, 91–2
Farrar, W. V. 94
financial advisor example 1, 60, 123, 169
Fine, A. 146
first good theories 145, 147, 155
First Meditation (Descartes) 98
Fitelson, B. 232–5
Foley, R. 31
foundationalism 228
France 89, 96, 105
French bread example 2–3, 11–12
Fresnel, Augustin 8
Freud, Sigmund 9–10
fudging explanation 63
funding 51
Galen 8
Galileo 244–5
gallium 82–3, 86, 100–1, 104, 105, 110, 118
Garber, D. 221
Gardner, M. 6
general theory of relativity (GTR) (Einstein) 9–10, 17, 53–4, 107–9, 132, 223–9, 230
genetic theories 19–24
Gerhardt, C. F. 88, 97
germanium 82, 110, 118
Germany 89, 108
Giere, R. 27, 34, 48, 133
Gillespie, C. C. 104
Gladstone, J. 93
glorious accommodations 5
glorious predictions 5, 8
successful 3–4, 85
Glymour, Clark 53–4, 133
old evidence and 217, 219, 221, 224–5, 229, 237
Gmelin, L. 93
Gosse, Philip 18–19
Great Britain 83, 89, 107
Gren, F. A. C. 3
Grossman, M. 229
Gutting, G. 143
h-independent e-evidence 223–30, 230–2, 236
Hacking, I. 13
Hardwig, John 31–2, 52, 60
Harker, D. 20
Hartley, David 7–9, 10
heliocentric theory 4
Herschel, John 8–9, 10
heuristic approach 1–2, 7, 117
high frequency assumption 160–1, 164, 168, 186
history, theory of (Marx) 9
Hitchcock, C. 24–5, 114, 121, 241
Hoel, P. G. 208
Holden, N. E. 89, 95
Homer 12
horizontal inference 125–6, 153, 156–9
Howson, Colin 4, 16–17, 67, 219
humble experts 54–6, 111, 244
Hume, David 10
hunch-producing evidence 202
Huygens, Christian 59
hydrogen 93
hypotheses
ad hoc 3, 13–14, 18, 63, 185, 241
auxiliary 117, 134–5
method of 7–9, 10
support 69
theoretical 134–5
Ihde, A. J. 88
imagination 115
imperfect experts 52–4, 107–9, 244
inaccessibility thesis 55–6
individualism see epistemic individualism
individualist evaluators 68, 113–14, 140
inductive logic 10–11, 16
anti- 122
pessimistic 163
infinite regress argument 222
instrumental reliability 144, 146
interdisciplinary experts 51–2, 111, 244
intuition 27, 66, 122, 136, 195, 214
evidence and 170, 202, 226, 232, 234
posterior probabilities and 76, 80
weighted averaging and 205, 210
‘Jeane Dixon effect’ 168
justification 37, 221–2, 228, 231
Kahn, J. A. 19, 22–3, 26, 114, 120, 186–7, 241
Kant, Immanuel 32, 90
Kantorovich, A. 115
Kaplan, M. 219
Karlsruhe Conference 88–9, 96, 97
Kauffman, G. B. 93
Kekule, F. A. 147
Kennedy, John F. 168
Kepler, Johann 103
Keynes, John Maynard 15–18, 23–4
Kitcher, P. 3
Knight, D. M. 92, 95, 109
Kolodkine, P. 89
Kremers, P. 93
Kuhn, T. S. 56, 58, 151, 194
Kultgen, J. H. 90–1
Kusch, M. 32
Lackey, J. 32
Ladyman, L. 146
Laing, M. 88
Lakatos, Imre 1, 12–15, 17–18, 62, 135, 151, 238
Landsberg, S. E. 19, 22–3, 26, 114, 120, 186–7, 241
Lange, M. 25–6, 114, 120–1
Laudan, Larry 8–9, 11, 138–9, 142, 151
Laurent, Auguste 89
Lavoisier, A. L. 3, 92
law of octaves (Newlands) 93, 95
Lehrer, K. 208
Lenssen, E. 93
Leplin, Jarret 6, 18, 34, 38, 129, 132, 237
Leverrier, U. J. J. 229
Lewis, D. 220
likelihood ratios 73–4, 78, 85
Lipton, P. 25, 63, 83, 121, 240
Locke, John 98–9
logical positivism 126
Longino, Helen 215, 245
Lundgren, A. 95
Lysenko, T. D. 43, 46
McAllister, J. W. 15, 148
MacDonald, H. 40
Magnus, P. D. 125, 155, 162, 243
Maher, P. 4, 82–3, 173, 175
method-based theory 19–23, 26, 34–5, 114–16, 169–70, 189, 241
Manahan, S. E. 52
mapmakers example 197–205, 210–11
Marsden, G. 50
Marx, Karl 9, 11, 62
Maxwell, G. 126
Mayo, D. 4, 221, 238
Mendel, G. J. 149–51, 153–4, 165
Mendeleev, Dmitri 49, 97–112, 194, 238–9
see also periodic law (PL)
method
-based theory 19–13, 26, 34–5, 114–16, 169–70, 189, 241
of hypotheses 7–9, 10
scientific 6–7, 22–3, 143, 144
methodology 14–15, 27, 243–5
principles of 145–6, 150, 152, 155
of scientific research programmes (MSRP) 12–14
Meyer, J. Lothar von 89, 93
Mill, John Stuart 9, 13
miracle arguments 143, 162, 165
for realism 123–4, 126, 128–32, 136–41, 242
for strong predictivism 127, 128–32
miraculous endorsement argument for realism 139, 141–62, 165, 242–3
current state of 142–4
objections to 144–62
mixed weights 197, 212–14
model of theory evaluation 38–51, 195–7
criteria for 41
modest approach 200–1, 203–4, 211
Musgrave, Alan 1, 128–9, 132, 142
natural selection 143
Neptune 110
New England Journal of Medicine 41
Newlands, J. A. R. 93–5
Newton, Isaac 7–8, 17, 59, 71, 90
Nickles, T. 13–15
NMR spectroscopy 115
no-miracles argument 121
noble gases 84
non-consequentialism 14–15, 16
non-experts 39–51, 125, 166, 244
non-observation problem 229
Nostradamus 185
novel confirmation 1
experts and 53–4, 57, 244
non-experts and 41, 46–9, 244
periodic law (PL) and 103, 106–11
novel success
background beliefs and 125, 192–4, 196
chance and 187
credibility and 207
high frequency assumption and 186
miraculous 124
periodic law (PL) and 100, 101, 104, 105–6, 109–10, 112–13
pool of endorsements and 168
posterior probabilities and 189
realism and 128–9, 166
take-off theories and 154–5, 163, 165
weighted averaging and 210
see also novel confirmation
novel success, truth, empirical adequacy and 124–5, 126–41, 147, 165
anti-superfluity principle (ASP) 127–8, 136–41, 243
built to fit explanations 132–6
miracle arguments for realism/strong predictivism 123–4, 126–7, 128–32, 136–41, 242
novelty 12–13, 139
degrees of 186
epistemic significance of 123–4, 140
nature of 1–2
pluralist evaluators and 33–8
objectivity 45–6
observation
direct 95, 98
observability 157–8
observable consequences 138, 141
statements 133, 159, 197, 236–7
observational acts 226, 227–9, 231, 237
defined 222–3
Observations of Man (Hartley) 7
Ockham’s razor 127–8, 136–41, 243
Odling, W. 93–5
old evidence 45, 217–39
Bayes’ theorem and 217–18, 221–2, 225, 237–8
h-independent e-evidence 223–30, 230–2, 236
overview 30
quantitative problem 217–19, 221, 227, 230–2, 232–7, 242
overfitting data 24–6, 121
particle theory of light 59
Partington, J. R. 108
Paulos, John Allen 168
Peirce, C. S. 103
per se predictivism 67–8, 76–7, 107, 117, 191
tempered 68–9
thin 69, 97
periodic law (PL) 82–7, 96–121, 194
arbitrary conjunction and 120
confirmation theory and 116–19
data overfitting and 121
Km1 88–90, 97–101, 119
Km2 90–4, 101–2, 119
Km3 94–6, 102–4, 119
Mendeleev’s background beliefs 87–96, 97–104, 107, 109–13, 119
method-based theory and 114–16
overview 28
talent and 120
tempered predictivism and 106–14
thin unvirtuous predictivism 104–6
thin virtuous predictivism 96–7
truth-aim methodology and 120–1
Periodic Table of the Elements 49, 82, 87
pessimistic induction 163
Peters, D. 215
Pettenkofer, Max von 93
pharmacologists example 212–13
phlogiston theory 3, 5
Plato 190
pluralist evaluators 140, 171, 172
agnostic 106–7
background beliefs and 65–6
experts 125
novelty and 33–8
tempered predictivism and 86, 109–11, 113, 191
see also epistemic pluralism
Poisson, S. D. 8
Popper, Karl 9–15, 18, 45, 53, 62, 122, 128, 217, 240
Posterior Analytics (Aristotle) 222
posterior probabilities 71, 73–7, 78, 80, 85, 189
practical observability 158
predicting community 168–89
coin flip example 4–5, 17, 19–21, 169–72, 172–3, 173–9, 181–4
counterpredictors 181–4
overview 29
random factors 179–81, 181–2
realism, pluralism, individualism 187–9
size of 168–9, 185–7, 189, 241
see also scientific communities (SCs)
‘Prediction and the Periodic Table’ (Scerri & Worrall) 83
predictions, risky 11–13
see also successful predictions
predictivism
defined 1–2, 5–7
dissolution of 15–18, 23–4
genetic theories of 19–24
history of 7–24
see also specific types
prestige 214–15
Priestley, Joseph 3
Principia (Newton) 7
prior probabilities 198
background beliefs and 171, 191, 193, 210
novel success and 193–4
periodic law (PL) and 113, 114
realism and 154, 163–5, 166, 187–9
species of predictivism and 65, 67, 71, 75–7, 78, 80
private evidence 203–4
probabilistic jury example 205–10, 211
probabilities
estimation 212–13, 216
function 230, 233–5
posting, defined 35–6
see also posterior probabilities; prior probabilities
Prout’s hypothesis 93–4
pseudosciences 9–10, 12, 15, 62, 122, 240
Psillos 46
psychic example 3–4
psychoanalysis 9–10
Ptolemy 4, 8, 132, 152
publicity vs confirmation 109–10
pure consequentialism 9–15, 18
Putnam, H. 128
qualitative problem 217, 219
quantitative problem 217–19, 221, 227–8, 237, 239
solutions 230–2, 232–7, 242
quantum mechanics 59
Quine, Q. V. O. 126
Ramsay, W. 84
random factors 21–2, 179–81, 181–2
rationality 32
Rayleigh, Lord John 84
realism 187–9
miracle argument for 123–4, 126, 128–32, 136–41, 242
overview 28–9
retail 125, 163–5, 166
scientific 49, 127
wholesale 163–4, 166
see also miraculous endorsement argument for realism
realists 124–6, 165
/anti-realist debate 123–4, 126, 142, 163, 166, 186, 242–3
epistemic pluralism and 166–7
Redhead, M. 133
redundant evidence 237
reflective experts 56–8, 110–11, 244
Reid, Thomas 55
relativity see general theory of relativity (GTR)
relevant candidate explanation 137
reliable methods see method-based theory
research
programmes 12–14
project reports 41
retail realism 125, 163–5, 166
retrograde motion 4
revolution, scientific 58
reward structure 42
risky predictions 11–13
Royal Society 43–4, 46, 82–4
Russell, Bertrand 217
Russia 108
Rutherford, Ernest 95
Salmon, W. 11
Sambursky, S. 89
sameness condition 128, 131, 137
scandium 82, 105, 110, 118
Scerri, E. 4, 83–4, 86, 93, 114, 118
Schaffer, S. 43, 46
Schaffner, K. 18
Schlesinger, G. 6, 132–3
scientific communities (SCs)
defined 38–9
epistemic pluralism and 39–51, 53–4, 56–7
periodic law (PL) and 85, 96, 110, 114, 116, 118
weighted averaging and 205, 211
see also predicting community
scientific method 6–7, 22–3, 143, 144
scientific revolution 58, 194
scientific theories 9–13, 18
Scopes trial 50
sensory evidence 99
separability requirement 157–9
serendipity 115
Shapin, Steven 43, 46, 59
shared evidence 202–5, 206, 208, 211
simplicity 148–9, 152, 153, 155–7
skepticism 35–6, 45–6, 57, 125, 139, 164, 207
periodic law (PL) and 83, 91, 94, 97–8, 101–6, 110–12
Sobel, M. 59
Sober, E. 24–5, 114, 121, 148, 241
Social History of Truth (Shapin) 59
social predictivism 241–2
Socrates 190
solar system, heliocentric theory of 4
Solov’ev, Y. I. 107
Sosa, E. 32
Soviet Union (USSR) 43, 46
spectroscopy 100, 115
Speelman, C. 56, 202
Spring, R. J. 100, 108
Stalin, Joseph 43
Stanford, P. K. 139
starlight bending 53
Stockman, A. C. 19, 22–3, 26, 114, 186–7, 241
Strathern, P. 92, 95
strong predictivism 24–7, 61, 124, 142
miracle argument for 127, 128–32, 136–41
success predictivism 67–8, 76–7, 191
tempered 69
thin 69, 97
successful predictions 84, 87, 96, 118, 192–3
glorious 3–4, 85
see also novel confirmation; novel success
Suppe, F. 36
Sweden 95
synchronic problem 218
System of Logic (Mill) 9
systematic unity (Km2), elements and 90–4, 101–2, 119
take-off point 46, 145, 165
take-off theories 145–6, 147–55, 155–6, 163, 165
talent 120, 241
team-member experts 51–2
tempered predictivism 25–7, 61, 77–8, 216, 240
epistemic pluralism and 33, 86, 191, 195
per se 68–9
success 69
unvirtuous 68, 81, 106–14
virtuous 68, 81, 106–14
temporal account of novelty 1–2
testability 9–10
testimony 32
theoretical account of novelty 1–2
theoretical hypotheses 134–5
theoretical inference and truth-conducivity (Km3) 94–6, 102–4, 119
theoretical knowledge 212–13
theory construction 3, 34–5, 114–16, 136
theory evaluation 5–6, 13, 15, 22, 26–7
model of 38–51, 195–6
theory of history (Marx) 9
theory-free reasons 151, 152
theory-laden criteria 148, 150
thin predictivism 26–7, 61, 68, 77–8, 240, 242
per se 69, 97
social 189
success 69, 97
unvirtuous 81, 104–6
virtuous 81, 96–7
Thomason, N. 6
Thorpe, Thomas 107
thought experiments see examples
track-record based method 212
triads, of elements 93
truth 130–1
-aim methodology 120–1
background beliefs and 131–2, 137–9, 144–6, 168–72, 187–9, 193–5, 241
background theories and 187
entailment facts 132–6, 137, 141, 170
of predictivism 189
truthlikeness 195
values 207
see also novel success, truth, empirical adequacy and
truth-conducivity 125, 147–9, 152–5, 156, 162, 163, 165
theoretical inference (Km3) and 94–6, 102–4, 119
unconditional confirmation 18–19, 116–19
United States of America (USA) 83
unvirtuous predictivism 61–4, 87, 191, 193, 240–1
overview 28
realism and 161, 166
tempered 81, 106–14
thin 81, 104–6
uranium 105
use-novelty 34–5, 34n, 37, 114, 115, 128–9, 138, 141
USSR 43, 46
van Fraassen, B. 124, 126, 142, 146, 154, 156–8, 160, 219–20
van Spronson, J. W. 93
Velikovsky, Immanuel 185
Venable, F. P. 93
vertical inference 125–6, 153–4, 156
virtuous predictivism 64–9, 87, 191–2, 240–1
in Bayesian terms 69–80
miracle arguments and 124–5, 132, 142, 160–1, 166
overview 28
tempered 81, 106–14
thin 81, 96–7
von Daniken, E. 47–8
Wagner, C. 208
Walton, D. 40, 55, 55–6, 245
wave theory 8–9, 59
weak predictivism 24–7, 61, 96, 131
see also tempered predictivism; thin predictivism
weighted averaging 195–7, 197–205, 206–10, 210–11
mixed weights 197, 212–14
objections to 214–16
Whewell, William 8–9, 10, 13–14, 123, 128
White, R. 22, 114, 120–1, 241
wholesale realism 163–4, 166
‘Why I am not a Bayesian’ (Glymour) 217, 237
Winkler, C. A. 105
Worrall, John 4, 38, 83–4, 86
confirmation theory and 18–19, 114, 116–17, 241
Zahar, E. 1, 13–14, 17, 132
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