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TEMPERED PARETO-TYPE MODELLING USING WEIBULL DISTRIBUTIONS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 February 2021

Hansjörg Albrecher
Affiliation:
Department of Actuarial Science Faculty of Business and Economics University of Lausanne Lausanne, Switzerland Swiss Finance Institute Lausanne, Switzerland E-Mail: hansjoerg.albrecher@unil.ch
José Carlos Araujo-Acuna*
Affiliation:
Department of Actuarial Science Faculty of Business and Economics University of LausanneLausanne, Switzerland E-Mail: josecarlos.araujoacuna@unil.ch
Jan Beirlant
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics LStat and LRisk KU Leuven Leuven, Belgium Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science University of the Free StateBloemfontein, South Africa E-Mail: jan.beirlant@kuleuven.be
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Abstract

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In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behaviour is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may, for instance, be subject to a higher level of inspection at highest damage levels leading to weaker tails than apparent from modal claims. Generalizing earlier results of Meerschaert et al. (2012) and Raschke (2020), in this paper we consider tempering of a Pareto-type distribution with a general Weibull distribution in a peaks-over-threshold approach. This requires to modulate the tempering parameters as a function of the chosen threshold. Modelling such a tempering effect is important in order to avoid overestimation of risk measures such as the value-at-risk at high quantiles. We use a pseudo maximum likelihood approach to estimate the model parameters and consider the estimation of extreme quantiles. We derive basic asymptotic results for the estimators, give illustrations with simulation experiments and apply the developed techniques to fire and liability insurance data, providing insight into the relevance of the tempering component in heavy-tail modelling.

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The International Actuarial Association

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