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Risk, information and noise: risk perception and risk management of French and German banks during the nineteenth century1

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 September 2008

Monika Pohle
Affiliation:
European University Institute

Abstract

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Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © European Association for Banking and Financial History 1995

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References

2 For a criticism of this see March, J. G. and Shapira, Z., ‘Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking’, Management Science, 33 (1987).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

3 Rasmusen, E., Games and Information: An Introduction to Game Theory (Cambridge, Mass., 1990)Google Scholar. In the case of most games Rasmusen describes, risk aversion by the players is assumed: see p. 47 and 89ff.; Backhouse, R., A History of Modern Economic Analysis (New York, 1987), p. 299Google Scholar. For a critical view by a sociologist, see Baecker, D., ‘Rationalität oder Risiko?’, in Glasgow, M., Willke, H. and Wiesenthal, H. (eds), Gesellschaftliche Steuerungsrationalität und partikulare Handlungsstrategien (Pfaffenweiler, 1989).Google Scholar

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12 Hayes, R. M., ‘Measurement of information’, Information Processing and Management, 29 (1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar, complains of the confusion among the terms ‘knowledge’, ‘fact’ and ‘information’ in the various disciplines.

13 Rasmusen, , Games, pp. 48ff.Google Scholar; for a critique of this concept of information see Dosi, G. and Egidi, M., ‘Substantive and procedural uncertainty: an exploration of economic behaviour in changing environments’, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1 (1991).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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There can have been no lack of available financial capital, but it found its way into industry only to a slight extent, since yields there were not comparably satisfied, given a correct assessment of the risks. The violent short-term economic fluctuations and frequent liquidity bottlenecks simply stressed the uncertainty of such investments … Essentially, the point was to contribute towards mobilizing capital through improving the fit between the desires (as regards times and security) of capital investors and demanden of capital.

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34 AN, 132 AQ 128.

35 AN, 68 AQ 3, 59–61, 64, 65, 67, 72, 77, 82, 98, 114, 125–127, 132, 133, 141, 144, 146, 150, 151, 162, 134, 173.

36 Oppenheim Hausarchiv, Cologne (hereafter OH), vols. 24, 27, 28, 43, 89, 90, 94, 96, 194, 196, 216, 220, ‘Bilanz’, Sign. 02.

37 AN, 25 AQ.

38 Deutsche Bank Archiv, Frankfurt (hereafter DA), A 576–77, 735–39, 840, 1251, 1254, 1338, Or 5–8, 68, 1001, 1564, 1714, S 1279, 1511–12, ‘Ordner Gwinner’.

39 DA, NB 54, 56, 58.

40 Landesmuseum für Arbeit und Technik, Mannheim; Aluminium Industrie AG-Fürstenberg.

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55 Bradford, and Kelejian, , ‘Value’Google Scholar; Grossman, et al. , ‘A Bayesian approach’.Google Scholar

56 Baecker, , Womit handeln Banken; p. 34.Google Scholar