The considerable public discussion of the past two years on the subject of our social insurance schemes and their post-war reconstruction has culminated in the publication of the Government's plans as a White Paper (Cmd. 6550–1). At present, social insurance in this country (now to be called National Insurance) is divided into a number of independent sections, each with its own statistical arrangements covering a large part of the population. At the same time some aspects of the whole population are regularly surveyed by the Registrars-General by means of an independent system of recording. The Government's plan greatly expands the field of insurance to cover all classes and groups. Before this unified plan can begin to function, fresh statistical machinery will have to be prepared, adequate to the task of keeping it efficiently in operation, and there will in consequence be a great opportunity for coordinating, simplifying and generally improving the national population records as a whole.

Two persons turn up cards alternately, each starting with a similar, but differently shuffled, pack of n cards. What is the probability that before all the cards have been dealt two identical cards are showing at the same time?

If the two players deal simultaneously the answer is unity minus the probability that none of the n pairs of cards is an identical pair. The problem is thus reduced to the calculation of the number of ways in which n letters can be put into n addressed envelopes without any letter going to the correct addressee. This is the classical example of derangements, and the solution can be found in Chap, IV of Whitworth's Choice and Chance, viz.

Ever since the abrupt announcement that Lend Lease was to be discontinued, the attention of the British public has been focused on Anglo-American economic problems. So furious has been the spate of articles (well informed and otherwise) launched by the Press, and so vociferous have been the supporters of wholly divergent views, that most people must by this time be heartily sick of the whole subject. I must therefore apologize for inflicting upon the Society the subsequent remarks on such a well-worn theme, but in self-defence would explain that the subject was chosen before the recent clamour and shouting arose.