Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-2pzkn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-01T05:33:09.994Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Macro Economic Determinants of Electoral Support for Incumbents in Turkey, 1950–1995

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 July 2015

Alı Çarkoğlu
Alı Çarkoğlu*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science and International Relations, Boğaziçi University, e-mail:, carkogla@boun.edu.tr
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

The assertion that economic conditions prevailing during a government's tenure influence the level of electoral support it receives is frequently expressed in Turkey. Despite frequent references to economic dimensions of electoral behavior in Turkish media and academic circles, however, there are only a few systematic analyses of the impact of macro-economic performance on incumbents' electoral success. Bulutay and Yıldırım (1969) and Bulutay (1970) were the first attempts in this direction. These pioneering empirical analyses were mainly descriptive and rely on cross-sectional observations across provinces for the elections between 1950 and 1969. Based solely on developments in the agricultural sector they concluded that economic factors were first among the factors determining election outcomes. Özselçuk (1975) included macro-economic indicators, such as changes in per capita income and prices, in a regression model to explain changes in incumbents' vote share. Özselçuk provided some evidence that incumbents' electoral support was shaped by developments in macro-economic indicators, however, his analyses were technically deficient and his results were poorly documented.

Type
Articles
Information
New Perspectives on Turkey , Volume 17 , fall 1997 , pp. 75 - 96
Copyright
Copyright © New Perspectives on Turkey 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bulutay, Tuncer. 1970. “Türk Toplumsal Hayatında İktisadi ve Siyasal Gelişmeler” (Economie and Political Developments in Turkey's Social Life) SBF Dergisi, vol. 25.3, pp. 79–119.Google Scholar
Bulutay, Tuncer. 1995. Employment, Unemployment and Wages in Turkey. Ankara: International Labor Office and State Institute of Statistics.Google Scholar
Bulutay, Tuncer and Nuri, Yıldırım. 1969. “Türk Seçmenlerinin Oy Verme Eğilimlerinde İktisadi Sebeplerin Üzerinde Bir Deneme” (An Essay on Economic Reasons behind Voting Tendencies of the Turkish Electorate) SBF Dergisi, vol. 22, 4, pp. 7–39.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1986. “Forecasting the 1986 Midterm Elections to the House of Representatives”, PS (Winter) pp. 83–87.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1992. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 36.2, pp. 386–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coşar, Nevin and Örs, Birsen. 1996. “Türkiye'de İktisat Politikalarında İstikrarsızlığa Neden Olan Siyasi Etmenler” (Political Factors that Cause Instability in Economic Policies in Turkey) Toplum ve Ekonomi, vol. 9, 2, pp. 23–56.Google Scholar
Çakmak, Cem. 1985. “Türkiye'de 1950'li Yıllardaki Genel Seçimler Üzerine Bir Deneme” (An Essay on Elections of the 1950s in Turkey) Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, vol. 12, pp. 245–283.Google Scholar
Çakmak, Cem. 1990. “1987 Genel Seçimleri ve 1989 Yerel Seçimleri: Bir Karşılaştırma” (A Comparison of 1987 General Elections and 1989 Local Elections) Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, vol. 17, pp. 1–24.Google Scholar
Çarkoğlu, Ali. 1993. Economy and Elections: A Comparative Analysis of Politico-Economic Interaction in Western Democracies, Unpublished PhD Dissertation SUNY-Binghamton Department of Political Science.Google Scholar
Çarkoğlu, Ali. 1995a. “Election Manifestoes and Policy-Oriented Economic Voting, A Pooled Cross-National Analysis”, European Journal of Political Research, vol. 27, pp. 293–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Çarkoğlu, Ali. 1995b. “The Interdependence of Politics and Economics in Turkey: Some Findings at the Aggregate Level of Analysis”, Boğaziçi Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 9.2, pp. 85–108.Google Scholar
Çarkoğlu, Ali. 1997. “Explaining Electoral Support for Incumbents in Turkey: The Connection of Economics to Politics”, Working Paper, Boğaziçi University.Google Scholar
Davidson, Lawrence S., Fratianni, Michael and von Hagen, Jurgen. 1992. “Testing Satisficing Version of the Political Business cycle 1905–1984”, Public Choice, vol. 73, pp. 21–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Ergüder, Üstün. 1980–1981. “Changing Patterns of Electoral Behavior in Turkey”, Boğaziçi University Journal, vol. 8-9, pp. 45–81.Google Scholar
Ergüder, Üstün. 1980. “Politics of Agricultural Price Policy in Turkey”, in Ergun, Özbudun and Ulusan, Aydın (eds.). The Political Economy of Income Distribution in Turkey, pp. 169–196, New York: Holmes and Meier Publishers Ltd.Google Scholar
Ergüder, Üstün. 1981. Türkiye'de Tarım Destek Siyasası ve Siyaset. Boğaziçi University Publications.Google Scholar
Esmer, Yılmaz and Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. 1991. Türk Toplumunun Değerleri (Turkish Values), Istanbul: TUSIAD.Google Scholar
Eroğul, Cem. 1990. Demokrat Parti Tarihi ve İdeolojisi (Democrat Party's History and Ideology), Second Edition, Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.Google Scholar
Gujarati, Damodar N. 1995. Basic Econometrics. Third Edition, McGraw-Hill Inc.Google Scholar
Gürkan, A.A. and Kasnakoğlu, H.. 1991. “The Political Economics of Agricultural Price Support in Turkey: An Empirical Assessment”, Public Choice, vol. 70, pp. 277–298.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas. 1987. The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalaycıoğlu, Ersin. 1994. “Elections and Party Preferences in Turkey, Changes and Continuities”, Comparative Political Studies, vol. 27.3, pp. 402–424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ersin, Kalaycıoğlu and Sarıbay, Ali Yaşar. 1991. “Çocukların Parti Tutmasını Belirleyen Etkiler” (On Factors Affecting Party Identification of Children), Toplum ve Ekonomi, vol. 1, pp. 137–150.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kiewiet, Roderick D. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kiewiet, Roderick D. and Rivers, Douglas. 1984. “A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting”, Political Behavior, vol. 6, pp. 369–393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1988. Economics and Elections, The Major Western Democracies. The University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Rice, Tom W. 1992. Forecasting Elections. CQ Press.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S. and Stimson, James A. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy”, American Political Science Review, vol. 86, pp. 597–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacRae, Duncan C. 1977. “A Political Model of Business Cycle”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 85, pp. 239–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mardin, Şerif. 1973. “Center Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics?”, Daedalus, Winter, pp. 169–190.Google Scholar
Monroe, Kristen R. 1979. “Economic Analysis of Electoral Behavior: A Critical Review”, Political Behavior, vol.1, pp. 137–143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mosley, P. 1976. “Toward a Satisficing Theory of Economic Policy”, Economic Journal, vol. 86, pp. 59–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mosley, P. 1978. “Images of Floating Voter or the Political Business Cycles Revisited”, Political Studies, vol. 26, pp. 375–394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mosley, P. 1984. The Making of Economic Policy. Wheatsheaf Books.Google Scholar
Mueller, J. 1970. “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson”, American Political Science Review, vol. 64, pp. 18–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard and Blais, Andre. 1993. “Explaining Election Outcomes in Canada: Economy and Politics”, Canadian Journal of Political Science, vol. 26.4, pp. 775–790.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Öniş, Ziya and Webb, Steve B. 1994. “Turkey: Democratization and Adjustment from Above”, in Haggard, Stephen and Webb, Steve B. (eds.). Voting for Reform, Democracy, Political Liberalization and Economic Adjustment. Oxford University Press, pp. 128–184.Google Scholar
Ziya, Öniş and Riedel, James. 1993. Economic Crises and Long-Term Growth in Turkey. Washington D.C.; World Bank.Google Scholar
Özselçuk, Erdinç. 1975. Ekonomik Durum ve Genel Seçimler (Economie Conditions and General Elections) in Çölaşan, Emin, Özselçuk, Erdinç and Özcan, Mustafa. 1973 Seçimleri (Elections of 1973). Milliyet Publications.Google Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1981. “A Preliminary Survey of the Theories and Findings on Vote and Popularity Functions”, European Journal of Political Research, vol. 9, pp. 181–199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1986. “The Distribution of Election Results and the Two Explanations of the Cost of Ruling”, European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 2, pp. 5–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1991. “How Robust is the Vote Function? A Study of 17 Nations over Four Decades”, in Norpoth, Helmut, Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Lafay, Jean-Dominique (eds.), Economie and Politics, The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1987. “Comparative Voting Behavior: Cleavages, Partisanship, and Accountability”, Research in Micropolitics, vol. 2, pp. 233–264.Google Scholar
Paldam, Martin. 1989. “Constitutional Design and Citizen Electoral Control”, Journal of Theoretical Politics, vol. 1, pp. 107–130.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 1990. “Holding Governments Accountable: How Constitutional Arrangements and Party Systems Affect Clarity of Responsibility in Contemporary Democracies”, Paper delivered at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. and Whitten, Guy D. 1993. “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 37, pp. 391–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reed, Steven and Brunk, Gregory G. 1984. “A Test of Two Theories of Economically Motivated Voting, The Case of Japan”, Comparative Politics, vol. 16, pp. 55–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Richard and Mackie, Thomas T. 1983. “Incumbency in Government: Asset or Liability”, in Daalder, Hans and Mair, Peter (eds.). Western European Party System: Continuity and Change. London: Sage Publications, pp. 115–138.Google Scholar
Schneider, Friederich, and Frey, Bruno. S. 1988. “Politico-Economic Models of Macroeconomic Policy”, in Willett, Thomas D. (ed.), Political Business Cycle. Duke University Press.Google Scholar
State Institute of Statistics. 1991. Statistical Indicators 1923–1990. Ankara: Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics Printing Department.Google Scholar
State Institute of Statistics. 1995. Statistical Indicators 1923–1995. Ankara: Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics Printing Department.Google Scholar
Stimson, James A. 1976. “Public Support for American President: A Cyclical Model”, Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 40, pp. 1–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Takashi, Inoguchi. 1981. “Explaining and Predicting Japanese General Elections, 1960–1980, Journal of Japanese Studies, vol. 7, pp. 285–318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, H. 1980. “A Heteroscedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test of Heteroscedasticity”, Econometrica, vol. 48, pp. 817–818.CrossRefGoogle Scholar