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FISCAL MODEL FAILURE: A MEASUREMENT PROBLEM? A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2013

Alfred G. Cuzán
Alfred G. Cuzán*
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
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Extract

The Fiscal Model of presidential elections not only failed to predict that President Obama would win reelection handily, but the error incurred in the forecast of the incumbent share of the two-party vote was such (46.9% vs. 51.8% or more) as to warrant a rating of “inaccurate” or “quite inaccurate” in Campbell's table of benchmarks for evaluating forecasts (Campbell 2012, 611). This recap is a preliminary assessment of what went wrong.

Type
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , January 2013 , pp. 42 - 43
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

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References

Campbell, James E. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 610–13.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G. 2009. “Will Barack Obama Be a One-Term President?” TCS Daily, March 10. http://uwf.edu/govt/documents/Cuzan-2009-Will%20Barack%20Obama%20Be%20a%20One-Term%20President-tcsdaily.pdf.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 648–50.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 2012. “Vote Share Equations: Predictions.” http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm.Google Scholar