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The War Puzzle Revisited

John A. Vasquez’s The War Puzzle provided one of the most important scientific analyses of the causes of war of the last two decades. The War Puzzle Revisited updates and extends his groundbreaking work, reviewing recent research on the onset and expansion of war and the conditions of peace. Vasquez describes systematically those factors associated with wars to see if there is a pattern that suggests why war occurs, and how it might be avoided, delineating the typical path by which relatively equal states have become embroiled in wars in the modern global system. The book uses the large number of empirical findings generated in the last twenty-five years as the basis of its theorizing, and integrates these research findings so as to advance the scientific knowledge of war and peace.

John A. Vasquez is Thomas B. Mackie Scholar in International Relations at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The War Puzzle Revisited

Editorial Board

Cambridge Studies in International Relations is a joint initiative of Cambridge University Press and the British International Studies Association (BISA). The series will include a wide range of material, from undergraduate textbooks and surveys to research-based monographs and collaborative volumes. The aim of the series is to publish the best new scholarship in International Studies from Europe, North America and the rest of the world.

Cambridge Studies in International Relations

Rodney Bruce Hall Central banking as global governance Constructing financial credibility

Milja Kurki Causation in international relations Reclaiming causal analysis

Richard M. Price Moral limit and possibility in world politics

Emma Haddad The refugee in international society Between sovereigns

Ken Booth Theory of world security

Benjamin Miller States, nations and the great powers The sources of regional war and peace

Beate Jahn (ed.) Classical theory in international relations

Andrew Linklater and Hidemi Suganami The English School of international relations A contemporary reassessment

Colin Wight Agents, structures and international relations Politics as ontology

Michael C. Williams The realist tradition and the limits of international relations

Ivan Arreguín-Toft How the weak win wars A theory of asymmetric conflict

Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall Power in global governance

Yale H. Ferguson and Richard W. Mansbach Remapping global politics History’s revenge and future shock

Christian Reus-Smit The politics of international law

Barry Buzan From international to world society? English School theory and the social structure of globalisation

K. J. Holsti Taming the sovereigns Institutional change in international politics

Bruce Cronin Institutions for the common good International protection regimes in international security

Paul Keal European conquest and the rights of indigenous peoples The moral backwardness of international society

Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver Regions and powers The structure of international security

A. Claire Cutler Private power and global authority Transnational merchant law in the global political economy

Patrick M. Morgan Deterrence now

Susan Sell Private power, public law The globalization of intellectual property rights

Nina Tannenwald The nuclear taboo The United States and the non-use of nuclear weapons since 1945

Linda Weiss States in the global economy Bringing domestic institutions back in

Rodney Bruce Hall and Thomas J. Biersteker (eds.) The emergence of private authority in global governance

Heather Rae State identities and the homogenisation of peoples

Maja Zehfuss Constructivism in international relations The politics of reality

Paul K. Ruth and Todd Allee The democratic peace and territorial conflict in the twentieth century Cambridge Studies in International Relations

Neta C. Crawford Argument and change in world politics Ethics, decolonization and humanitarian intervention

Douglas Lemke Regions of war and peace

Richard Shapcott Justice, community and dialogue in international relations

Phil Steinberg The social construction of the ocean

Christine Sylvester Feminist international relations An unfinished journey

Kenneth A. Schultz Democracy and coercive diplomacy

David Houghton US foreign policy and the Iran hostage crisis

Cecilia Albin Justice and fairness in international negotiation

Martin Shaw Theory of the global state Globality as an unfinished revolution

Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour Perfect deterrence

Robert O’Brien Anne Marie Goetz Jan Aart Scholte and Marc Williams Contesting global governance Multilateral economic institutions and global social movements

Roland Bleiker Popular dissent, human agency and global politics

Bill McSweeney Security, identity and interests A sociology of international relations

Molly Cochran Normative theory in international relations A pragmatic approach

Alexander Wendt Social theory of international politics

Thomas Risse Stephen C. Ropp and Kathryn Sikkink (eds.) The power of human rights International norms and domestic change

Daniel W. Drezner The sanctions paradox Economic statecraft and international relations

Viva Ona Bartkus The dynamic of secession

John A. Vasquez The power of power politics From classical realism to neotraditionalism

Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett (eds.) Security communities

Charles Jones E. H. Carr and international relations A duty to lie

Jeffrey W. Knopf Domestic society and international cooperation The impact of protest on US arms control policy

Nicholas Greenwood Onuf The republican legacy in international thought

Daniel S. Geller and J. David Singer Nations at war A scientific study of international conflict

Randall D. Germain The international organization of credit States and global finance in the world economy

N. Piers Ludlow Dealing with Britain The Six and the first UK application to the EEC

Andreas Hasenclever Peter Mayer and Volker Rittberger Theories of international regimes

Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth C. Economy (eds.) The internationalization of environmental protection

James N. Rosenau Along the domestic–foreign frontier Exploring governance in a turbulent world

John M. Hobson The wealth of states A comparative sociology of international economic and political change

Kalevi J. Holsti The state, war, and the state of war

Christopher Clapham Africa and the international system The politics of state survival

Susan Strange The retreat of the state The diffusion of power in the world economy

William I. Robinson Promoting polyarchy Globalization, US intervention, and hegemony

Roger Spegele Political realism in international theory

Thomas J. Biersteker and Cynthia Weber (eds.) State sovereignty as social construct

Mervyn Frost Ethics in international relations A constitutive theory

Mark W. Zacher with Brent A. Sutton Governing global networks International regimes for transportation and communications

Mark Neufeld The restructuring of international relations theory

Thomas Risse-Kappen (ed.) Bringing transnational relations back in Non-state actors, domestic structures and international institutions

Hayward R. Alker Rediscoveries and reformulations Humanistic methodologies for international studies

Robert W. Cox with Timothy J. Sinclair Approaches to world order

Jens Bartelson A genealogy of sovereignty

Mark Rupert Producing hegemony The politics of mass production and American global power

Cynthia Weber Simulating sovereignty Intervention, the state and symbolic exchange

Gary Goertz Contexts of international politics

James L. Richardson Crisis diplomacy The Great Powers since the mid-nineteenth century

Bradley S. Klein Strategic studies and world order The global politics of deterrence

T. V. Paul Asymmetric conflicts: war initiation by weaker powers

Christine Sylvester Feminist theory and international relations in a postmodern era

Peter J. Schraeder US foreign policy toward Africa Incrementalism, crisis and change

Graham Spinardi From Polaris to Trident The development of US Fleet Ballistic Missile technology

David A. Welch Justice and the genesis of war

Russell J. Leng Interstate crisis behavior, 1816–1980 Realism versus reciprocity

John A. Vasquez The war puzzle

Stephen Gill (ed.) Gramsci, historical materialism and international relations

Mike Bowker and Robin Brown (eds.) From cold war to collapse Theory and world politics in the 1980s

R. B. J. Walker Inside/outside International relations as political theory

Edward Reiss The Strategic Defense Initiative

Keith Krause Arms and the state Patterns of military production and trade

Roger Buckley US–Japan alliance diplomacy 1945–1990

James N. Rosenau and Ernst-Otto Czempiel (eds.) Governance without government Order and change in world politics

Michael Nicholson Rationality and the analysis of international conflict

John Stopford and Susan Strange Rival states, rival firms Competition for world market shares

Terry Nardin and David R. Mapel (eds.) Traditions of international ethics

Charles F. Doran Systems in crisis New imperatives of high politics at century’s end

Deon Geldenhuys Isolated states A comparative analysis

Kalevi J. Holsti Peace and war Armed conflicts and international order 1648–1989

Saki Dockrill Britain’s policy for West German rearmament 1950–1955

Robert H. Jackson Quasi-states Sovereignty, international relations and the third world

James Barber and John Barratt South Africa’s foreign policy The search for status and security 1945–1988

James Mayall Nationalism and international society

William Bloom Personal identity, national identity and international relations

Zeev Maoz National choices and international processes

Ian Clark The hierarchy of states Reform and resistance in the international order

Hidemi Suganami The domestic analogy and world order proposals

Stephen Gill American hegemony and the Trilateral Commission

Michael C. Pugh The ANZUS crisis, nuclear visiting and deterrence

Michael Nicholson Formal theories in international relations

Friedrich V. Kratochwil Rules, norms, and decisions On the conditions of practical and legal reasoning in international relations and domestic affairs

Myles L. C.Robertson Soviet policy towards Japan An analysis of trends in the 1970s and 1980s

John A. Vasquez

Thomas B. Mackie Scholar in International Relations University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521708234

© John A. Vasquez 2009

This book succeeds and replaces The War Puzzle © Cambridge University Press 1993

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2009

Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data

Vasquez, John A., 1945–
The war puzzle revisited / John A. Vasquez.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-521-88179-1 (hardback) - ISBN 978-0-521-70823-4 (pbk.)
1. War–Causes. I. Title.
U21.2.V378 2009
355.02′7–dc22
2009016994

ISBN 978-0-521-88179-1 hardback
ISBN 978-0-521-70823-4 paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

To Elyse

peace of my heart

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