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Seeing Is Disbelieving

Seeing Is Disbelieving

Seeing Is Disbelieving

Why People Believe Misinformation in War, and When They Know Better
Author:
Daniel Silverman, Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania
Published:
November 2024
Availability:
Available
Format:
Paperback
ISBN:
9781009523585

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    Factual misinformation is spread in conflict zones around the world, often with dire consequences. But when is this misinformation actually believed, and when is it not? Seeing is Disbelieving examines the appeal and limits of dangerous misinformation in war, and is the go-to text for understanding false beliefs and their impact in modern armed conflict. Daniel Silverman extends the burgeoning study of factual misinformation, conspiracy theories, and fake news in social and political life into a crucial new domain, while providing a powerful new argument about the limits of misinformation in high-stakes situations. Rich evidence from the US drone campaign in Pakistan, the counterinsurgency against ISIL in Iraq, and the Syrian civil war provide the backdrop for practical lessons in promoting peace, fighting wars, managing conflict, and countering misinformation more effectively.

    • Relates to some of the hottest problems in the world today: war and conflict; factual misinformation; conspiracy theories; and fake news
    • Uses examples such as rebel chemical weapons attacks in Syria and crucified Russian-speaking children in Ukraine to understand whether salacious lies in war are likely to be believed
    • Argues that the remarkable civilians on the front lines of wars, directly exposed to the relevant events, are less easily misinformed due to their superior local information and their stronger incentives to know what is happening around them
    • Marshals public opinion surveys, extensive violent event data, rich qualitative interviews, and more to present very different streams of evidence to support the argument

    Reviews & endorsements

    ‘Neatly shows that in wartime people routinely believe false information that supports their side, until they have skin in the game and need accurate information to guide their behavior.’ Sacha Altay, University of Zurich

    ‘Why do people trust misinformation during conflicts? Daniel Silverman’s critical book is ideal for both political psychologists and international relations theorists alike. It explores the micro-dynamics of misinformation, which has become the primary battlefronts in war. He examines whether people actually believe the lies they are told during war and how people sort fact from fiction as the intersection between the facts that they believe and what motivates them to do so? Drawing from quantitative and qualitative sources, this book offers a unique and granular understanding from the FARC, to the Taliban and ISIS of how people determine fact from fiction despite the fog of war.’ Mia Bloom, Georgia State University and New America

    ‘An eye-opening and colourful adventure that transformed my understanding of conflict …. I find myself applying this book’s main idea all over the place.’ Michael Spagat, Royal Holloway College, University of London

    ‘An important and incredibly timely book for scholars and policymakers. Seeing is Disbelieving combines a novel theory with rich survey data, large-N empirical data, and in-depth fieldwork to help us better understand the reasons why people believe misinformation and hold misperceptions during conflict.’ Thomas Zeitzoff, American University School of Public Affairs

    ‘Silverman has identified a gap between the study of war and the study of conspiracy theories, contending that ‘understanding misinformation in war and conflict … has received little scholarly attention’. The author’s thesis is that misinformation takes hold and persists when people believe what they want to believe and what they are told to believe, regardless of whether it has a factual basis … Recommended.’ S. Clerc, CHOICE

    ‘With so much written on disinformation and misinformation over the past decade, original research on these topics has become rare. But Daniel Silverman’s Seeing Is Disbelieving is genuinely novel. … The interesting question, and one Silverman’s research invites us all to think about, is what other issues his insights about what makes people believe disinformation and misinformation might apply to. The stakes are high because if we can understand better what motivates people to seek out accurate information, we could mitigate the harm disinformation and misinformation appear to be causing to democracy, social cohesion, and the world’s ability to solve the collective challenges we face. Seeing Is Disbelieving has provided an invaluable step in that direction, and its thought-provoking findings deserve to be read widely.’ Thomas Colley, Lawfare

    Product details

    • Published: November 2024
    • Format: Paperback
    • ISBN: 9781009523585
    • Length: 204 pages
    • Dimensions: 228 × 151 × 11 mm
    • Weight: 0.29kg
    • Availability: Available

    Table of Contents

    • 1. Introduction: the problem of factual misinformation and misperception in war
    • 2. A theory of people's factual beliefs and credulity in war
    • 3. Factual misperceptions in the US drone campaign in Pakistan
    • 4. Proximity to the fighting and the puncturing of factual bias in Iraq
    • 5. Truth discernment and personal exposure in the Syrian civil war
    • 6. Understanding and mitigating the appeal of falsehood in wartime.

    Author

    Daniel Silverman , Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania

    Daniel Silverman is Assistant Professor of Political Science in the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University. He has published articles on international security, peace, and conflict in a number of leading scholarly journals including International Organization, International Studies Quarterly, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, and Journal of Peace Research, along with public-facing outlets such as The Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, National Interest, and Political Violence at a Glance.