Tony Blair's continuous eight-year tenure as prime minister equals the lifespan of a two-term US president. By the end of 2005, it will exceed that of every British premier in the last century except for Margaret Thatcher. Lack of time in office is hardly a problem. It is therefore not too soon to make a provisional assessment of Blair's impact. Because he has set a date for his departure there is more of the past than the future about him. And the best may be in the past.

The three phases in Blair's leadership are his three years as leader of the opposition and his two four-year terms as Prime Minister. He led his party to a huge election victory in 1997. But concentration on dominating the media agenda and winning that election meant that, with a few exceptions, little thought was given to a programme for government. In private, he has looked back on the first term as largely a wasted opportunity for public service reform and the second term has been dominated by Iraq and its fallout. In 2001 he claimed that he was more experienced in knowing how Whitehall works, tougher and had a clearer idea of what he would do if he achieved ‘the historic second term’.

A second term, however, has rarely enhanced a government's reputation and Blair's has been no exception.