How far was Blair responsible for the Conservatives' plight?

Tony Blair's effect on the Conservative Party, direct or indirect, has been comparable to his effect on the Labour Party. After Blair became Labour leader in July 1994, the Conservatives suffered three successive general election defeats and four changes of leadership. By 2009, the party will have been out of office for 12 years, its longest uninterrupted period in opposition since the Great Reform Act of 1832.

Labour's second term in government from 2001 to 2005 coincided in particular with one of the Conservative Party's most aimless performances. Reeling from a second historic landslide defeat in 2001, the party seemed destined to suffer another four years of disarray under a relatively unknown and inexperienced leader, Iain Duncan Smith. A dramatic, but bloodless coup in October 2003 offered the party the chance to recover, when Michael Howard's elevation to the leadership presented the first real Conservative challenge to Blair since 1994. But the opportunity came and went. Although the 2005 general election produced a closer result than the preceding two elections, the Conservative Party failed to present itself as a credible alternative government – the minimum requirement of the principal party of opposition. To have made so little mark against an increasingly vulnerable Blair was remarkable.

This chapter will examine why the Conservative Party between 2001 and 2005 squandered its opportunity, making only the limpest of recoveries.