China's imperial system lasted for more than two millennia, through twenty or more dynasties, some of which lasted only a few years, others several hundred. Between dynasties the empire was periodically disunited, sometimes for hundreds of years at a time, but – ultimately – strong, centralized rule was always restored under a new dynasty. It seemed inconceivable that the imperial system itself could come to an end. But the processes set in motion by a combination of Western incursion and internal rebellion and decay led to that shocking outcome, in 1911. The Manchu Qing dynasty turned out to be the last Chinese dynasty. The downhill path toward the collapse was painful for those who believed in the status quo, exhilarating for those who wanted to hasten its demise.

The downhill slide

The signs of decline

Foreign invasion, peasant rebellion, religious sectarianism, official corruption, a Yellow River flood – in traditional Chinese statecraft theories these were some of the unmistakable signs of dynastic decline, signs that the Mandate of Heaven was being withdrawn and the dynasty losing the right to rule.

Between the 1850s and the early 1890s the Qing dynasty experienced every one of these inauspicious events. The British, French, and Russians made substantial incursions into China, in a series of wars that ended in unequal treaties. There were rebellions throughout the country, some without obvious religious elements (the Nian), others driven by religious zeal. The largest of them, the Christian-influenced Taiping Rebellion (1851–64), took over almost half of China.