escalation refers to the tendency to commit more serious offenses as a career progresses. The widespread assumption that the seriousness of crime escalates is largely fed by the analogy between criminal and occupational careers. The term “career” implies an expectation of reaching a higher rank. A career begins with minor dabbling, which does not require specific knowledge. Through ongoing training and improvement of skills, the career may culminate in complex involvement. The prison environment is thought to play a special role in the escalation of offense seriousness. What one cannot do when one enters, one may be fully competent to undertake when one leaves.

Many of the criminal careers which unfold in the mass media reaffirm the impression of escalation. Those offenders who have committed very serious crimes, such as murder, are often mentioned. Many have a long prior list of less serious forms of crime. In light of this, the murder appears as the peak or final stage of the criminal career.

The assumption of escalation is also fed by criminological research. As mentioned in Chapter 2, Clifford Shaw's pioneering study, Brothers in Crime, describes the seriousness of crime as an escalating process (Shaw, 1938). Similarly, studies of self-reported criminality among children show that early careers are dominated by simple and petty types of crime. Those children who gain the greatest experience with criminality often go on to commit more serious forms of crime (Kyvsgaard, 1992a).

Whether the assumption of escalation is correct is examined here.