Myanmar is in the midst of momentous political changes. Over the past two years, the country's new quasi-civilian government has taken unprecedented steps to end half a century of military rule, economic stagnation, and international opprobrium. This chapter assesses the significance of the ongoing reform process, considers why the government is changing tack now, and identifies some of the main challenges and risks ahead. The analysis reveals a government that is defying conventional wisdom and low expectations, yet at the same time faces such major structural obstacles that one should be cautious about assuming that the end point of the transition will be democracy.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE REFORM PROCESS

The conventional view leading into the 2010 elections was that this was purely a cosmetic move to shore up the existing regime and unlikely, therefore, to result in significant change (for example, Lintner 2011; Nyein 2009; for a dissenting view, see Pedersen 2011). Early developments seemed to support this pessimistic view. In its efforts to maintain control of the transition, the military government made a mockery of democratic elections and managed to secure, by hook and by crook, a landslide victory for its own party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) (Englehart 2012). It subsequently appointed a new cabinet made up largely of former senior military officers, led by the prime minister of the previous regime, General Thein Sein, now President U Thein Sein. This, however, is when the expected story of continuity ended and real change began. Once in office, the new government proceeded in short order not to try to shore up the existing regime, but effectively to start unravelling it.

The reforms undertaken by the post-2011 government are well known, and a few highlights will suffice here (for more detail, see Holliday 2013; International Crisis Group 2012, 2011). Most of the country's 1000-plus political prisoners have been released; opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been elected to parliament, where she now chairs the Committee for the Rule of Law; a ceasefire has been reached with the Karen National Union (KNU), thus ending the world's longest-running armed insurgency; trade unions have been legalized; and the media has been freed to publish real news and honest criticism of the government.