Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of illustrations
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Uncertainty and decision-making
- 2 The concept of probability
- 3 Probability distributions, expectation and prevision
- 4 The concept of utility
- 5 Games and optimization
- 6 Entropy
- 7 Characteristic functions, transformed and limiting distributions
- 8 Exchangeability and inference
- 9 Extremes
- 10 Risk, safety and reliability
- 11 Data and simulation
- 12 Conclusion
- Appendix 1 Common probability distributions
- Appendix 2 Mathematical aspects
- Appendix 3 Answers and comments on exercises
- References
- Index
1 - Uncertainty and decision-making
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 June 2012
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of illustrations
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Uncertainty and decision-making
- 2 The concept of probability
- 3 Probability distributions, expectation and prevision
- 4 The concept of utility
- 5 Games and optimization
- 6 Entropy
- 7 Characteristic functions, transformed and limiting distributions
- 8 Exchangeability and inference
- 9 Extremes
- 10 Risk, safety and reliability
- 11 Data and simulation
- 12 Conclusion
- Appendix 1 Common probability distributions
- Appendix 2 Mathematical aspects
- Appendix 3 Answers and comments on exercises
- References
- Index
Summary
If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.
Francis Bacon, Advancement of learningLife is a school of probability.
Walter BagehotIntroduction
Uncertainty is an essential and inescapable part of life. During the course of our lives, we inevitably make a long series of decisions under uncertainty – and suffer the consequences. Whether it be a question of deciding to wear a coat in the morning, or of deciding which soil strength to use in the design of a foundation, a common factor in these decisions is uncertainty. One may view humankind as being perched rather precariously on the surface of our planet, at the mercy of an uncertain environment, storms, movements of the earth's crust, the action of the oceans and seas. Risks arise from our activities. In loss of life, the use of tobacco and automobiles pose serious problems of choice and regulation. Engineers and economists must deal with uncertainties: the future wind loading on a structure; the proportion of commuters who will use a future transportation system; noise in a transmission line; the rate of inflation next year; the number of passengers in the future on an airline; the elastic modulus of a concrete member; the fatigue life of a piece of aluminium; the cost of materials in ten years; and so on.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Decisions under UncertaintyProbabilistic Analysis for Engineering Decisions, pp. 1 - 19Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2005