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Chapter 4 - Making and marketing movies

from PART II - Media-dependent entertainment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2011

Harold L. Vogel
Affiliation:
Independent Analyst
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Summary

Dough makes bread and dough makes deals.

– HV

Some people would argue that deals, not movies, are Hollywood's major product. “Contract-driven” is a handy way to describe the business.

Although we frequently think of studios as monolithic enterprises, in actuality, they have become intellectual property clearinghouses simultaneously engaged in four distinct business functions: financing, producing, distributing, and marketing and advertising movies. Each function requires the application of highly specialized skills that include raising and investing money, assessing and insuring production costs and risks, and planning and executing marketing and advertising campaigns. Indeed, every motion picture and television project must inevitably confront and then cope with three main risks, first in financing, then in completion, and then in performance. This chapter describes the framework in which these functions are performed.

Properties – Tangible and intangible

A movie screenplay begins with a story concept based on a literary property already in existence, a new idea, or a true event. It then normally proceeds in stages from outline to treatment, to draft, and finally to polished form.

Prior to the outline, however, enters the literary agent, who is familiar with the latest novels and writers and always primed to make a deal on the client's behalf. Normally, unsolicited manuscripts make little or no progress when submitted directly to studio editorial departments.

Type
Chapter
Information
Entertainment Industry Economics
A Guide for Financial Analysis
, pp. 114 - 177
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2010

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The Graduate, as described in Turman (2006, p. 216)
Even the first Star Wars was, as described in Bruck, (2003), turned away by Universal
The Turtles story is described in Brown, (1991)
the Gandhi experience in Eberts, and Ilott, (1990)
Daisy's situation is mentioned in Landro, (1990)
Gosford Park's problem in finding $6 million for North American rights is covered in King, (2002)
the Greek Wedding story is reported in Eller, (2002)
Independence Day was rejected by Sony, Fox lost faith in The English Patient, which Miramax (Disney) distributed, TriStar put Pulp Fiction into turnaround
Warner, Bros. also passed Forrest Gump to Paramount. As described by Shone, (2004, pp. 46–52)
Rinzler, (2007), even Star Wars had an uncertain and problem-fiilled start
Leipzig, (2005) shows how improbable it is that even a completed project is ever accepted for distribution
Goldstein, (2005) further recounts how best-picture Oscar nominees Ray
McNamara, (2006)
Slumdog Millionaire, the 2009 Oscar winner for Best Picture. The rights were then sold to Fox Searchlight
Mlodinow, (2006). Sometimes films bounce around studios and gestate for many years: for instance, Forrest Gump
Shakespeare in Love, 10 years. A more scientific approach to script selection appears in Eliashberg, et al. (2007)
The following example of a common-stock offering in the 1980s is illustrative. In the case of a Kings Road Productions offering in the early summer of 1981, rapidly deteriorating market conditions caused withdrawal of the proposed sale of 1.8 million shares at prices between $10 and $12 per share through a large managing underwriter. Experienced producer Friedman, Stephen contributed as a core of assets his previously released theatrical features – Slapshot
the most prominent of which was All of Me (domestic rentals as of 1987 were $6.7 million)
Variety of May 10, 1989, Silver Screen Partners (SSP) I through IV were all profitable in 1988. SSP IV ended 1988 with net income of $16.15 per unit. Each unit was sold for $500 in June 1988
A discussion of film partnership financial performance through the 1980s appears in Variety, November 5, 1990
Eisbruck, (2005), deals are generally of three types: future film (“slate”) portfolio financings, in which investors are entitled to share in future “first-cycle” revenues after distribution fee and p&a deductions; film revenue advance deals, in which funds are invested after films have been released
An example of this is the sale of Viacom's DreamWorks 59-feature library (including Oscar-winning titles such as Gadiator and American Beauty) in 2006 for $900 million to George Soros and Dune Capital
Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2006
Kiger, (2004), outside investors usually do not fare well in Hollywood. In the 1970s and early 1980s, these outsiders were probably led astray by extrapolating the then record-breaking box-office performances of Jaws and Star Wars and by enthusiasm for the “new media” revolution
As Goldstein, (2006b) notes, many of the 2006 Oscar-nominated films were made for under $14 milliion and were financed at least in part by outsiders such as Cuban, Mark (Dallas Mavericks owner) and Wagner, Todd (Good Night, and Good Luck); Bill Pohlad, owner of the Minnesota Twins (Brokeback Mountain)
Yari, Bob (Crash). The rationale for “bankable” stars has also come to be questioned, as their casting has not been reflected recently in box office results. On this, see Ravid, (1999) and Barnes, (2009a)
old (and odd) example of rearranged sequencing occurred in 1980, when Twentieth Century Fox showed Breaking Away on network television before showing it on pay cable
Unsuccessful contemporaneous release in several distribution windows was also attempted by a small distributor in 2004 for the film Noel
Exhibitors were also upset in 2005 when Ray was released to DVD in February
while the film was still playing in theaters. As described by Carr, (2005)
a more ambitious approach also began in 2005, when 2929 Entertainment set up a venture to make films simultaneously available in theaters, on DVD, and on high-definition broadcast and cable networks. The first feature to be released in this way was the low-budget Bubble
Section 3.4, Holson, (2005a), and Weinberg, (2005)
Variety, March 25, 2002
Goldsmith, (2004) reports, by 2004 the industry began to move to an even 50/50, so-called “aggregate settlement,” split taken over the life of the film
disagreements are sometimes publicly noted (Los Angeles Times, December 19, 2007)
late 2007, for instance, the Marcus Theatres chain was unable to agree with domestic distributor Paramount Pictures on the revenue split for Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Another example of disagreement occurred in May 1998, when Sony Pictures found that some theaters balked at paying 80% of receipts to Sony for the release of Godzilla
Austin Powers and Rush Hour have done. See also Lyman, (2002) and Waxman, (2003)
Details on this particular situation can be found in Variety, December 21, 1977
And in early 2010, the ongoing theatrical strength of Avatar partially blocked another 3D film, Disney's Alice in Wonderland
Warner's, Clash of the Titans encountered a similar problem a few weeks later. See Cieply, and Barnes, (2010)
A somewhat similar situation developed in 2008 with a shortage of digital screens when Hannah Montana pushed out U2 3D, a concert film that had opened a week earlier. See Halbfinger, (2008b) and Sanders, (2008a)
The top three-day weekend opening belongs to The Dark Knight (cost $185 million), which hauled in $158.4 million in July 2008 and set a domestic record, collecting $314.2 million in the first ten days
opened May 4, 2007 and generated the next best three-day North American total of $148 million (worldwide $373 million). Summit Entertainment's The Twilight Saga: New Moon sold $142.8 million of North American tickets (plus another $118.9 million overseas) in its first three-day weekend in November 2009
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (cost $225 million) in 2006 had the next highest opening weekend at $135.6 million
Iron Man 2 also had a strong opening with $133.6 million in May 2010
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End pulled in $126.5 million in the Memorial Day weekend of 2007
Just $2 million behind, for the Memorial Day weekend, was 2008's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (cost $185 million, marketing $150 million)
X-Men: The Last Stand generated $122.9 million over the comparable holiday weekend in 2006
Shrek 3 similarly attracted $122 million on its first weekend in May 2007
The Lost World: Jurassic Park had previously (in May 1997) generated the largest three-day opening weekend up to that time, with receipts of $72.4 million and a four-day total of $92.7 million
The largest five-day opening was 2005's Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith
And the largest first quarter opening weekend and 3D opening of all time was Disney's early March 2010 release of Alice in Wonderland
Boldrin, and Levine, (2008, Chapter 2). The related Supreme Court ruling in 1984 was Sony v Universal City Studios
A 2005 Supreme Court case, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer v Grokster
New York Times and Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2005
One of the largest sell-throughs on tape was Disney's Snow White (27 million units, 1994)
But this was exceeded by the record DVD sell-through of the 2003 Disney/Pixar release of Finding Nemo of around 30 million units
In 2010, two strong North American DVD performers were Avatar
Interest in this area was heightened with Disney's 1994 direct-to-video release of the Aladdin sequel, Return of Jafar
Hofmeister, (1994). Since then the business has moved to direct-to-DVD, with Disney's Lion King 1½, released in 2004, which brought $160 million in sales. Disney's High School Musical, produced for $4.2 million
Beta House, discussed in Barnes, (2008b)
generating around $1 billion in sales. Among the most expensive (estimated cost $20 million) of the direct-to-DVD releases was Warner's 2009 release of Tales of the Black Freighter
Variety, September 13, 2004 and articles by M. Marr in the Wall Street Journal, April 20, 2007 and August 17, 2007
Until the release of Avatar in 2009

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