Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Acknowledgements
- Preface by Peter Ho
- Introduction: The “Gentle Art”
- Sources
- I A Unique Legacy
- II Shell Scenarios – A History, 1965-2013
- III The Essence of the Shell Art
- IV Looking Ahead
- V Conclusion
- Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders
- Afterword
- Appendix A – Timeline
- Appendix B – Summary of Scenarios
- Index
V - Conclusion
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 16 February 2021
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Acknowledgements
- Preface by Peter Ho
- Introduction: The “Gentle Art”
- Sources
- I A Unique Legacy
- II Shell Scenarios – A History, 1965-2013
- III The Essence of the Shell Art
- IV Looking Ahead
- V Conclusion
- Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders
- Afterword
- Appendix A – Timeline
- Appendix B – Summary of Scenarios
- Index
Summary
It is difficult to convince people, especially when you have no cataclysmic event with which to confront them, that the world is going to be different. The policy makers, whether in government or business, tend to put off making decisions which they do not like. Scenarios, by illustrating the consequences of delayed decisions, can provide a powerful spur for a more positive response.
– Hans DuMoulin, Head of Energy Team, 1972-79 and John Eyre, Energy Team Analyst, 1976-78Pierre Wack was forbidden to work on strategy.
– Napier Collyns, Head of Scenario Analysis/Quantification, 1971-1980, Scenario Team Member, 1972-86Our source of competitive advantage was not to be found in developing the scenarios per se but actually making them systemic within the organization so that they could be part of corporate glue and organizational learning and development.
– John Robinson, Editor, Scenario Planners Newsletter, 1988-2004Inevitably, for such an unusual corporate function, there has been a continuous low intensity debate about the value of scenarios. On at least three occasions, the board seriously considered discontinuing the practice. The first of these occurred immediately after Wack's retirement, when De Geus was instructed by Van Wachem to “bring it closer to the business.” The scenario team under Van der Heijden asked De Geus for six months to convince him of the use of scenarios. The fundamental lesson learned was that the scenarios are effective only when focused on the concerns of a specific client. De Geus concurred with the conclusion of the review that the lack of strategic implementation of insights gained from the scenario work reflected the quality of the CMD's engagement with the scenarios rather than the quality of the scenarios themselves. De Geus reported that “After Van Wachem was shown a review that claimed the scenarios had influenced the company's anticipation of ‘lighter’ barrels ahead of the competition, he changed his mind and became a staunch supporter of scenarios.”
Other observers have felt that scenarios do not provide anything “more than what I can read in the Financial Times.”
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Essence of ScenariosLearning from the Shell Experience, pp. 123 - 130Publisher: Amsterdam University PressPrint publication year: 2014