Introduction

Chapter 8 described the falls and rises in safety and order in the 20 estates, and rises from the 1980s or 1990s onwards, which had effects on estate popularity and population. This chapter explores estate-level and national factors influencing safety and order in the 20 estates over their lifetime.

Potential estate levels explanations for falls in safety and order since the 1970s

All the estates had multiple characteristics which were likely to have contributed to the falls in safety and order over the 1970s and 1980s. The seven third-generation estates had mixed or deck-access design and layout believed to increase opportunities for crime and to reduce the effectiveness of informal social control (Chapter 3), although 13 did not. Over the 1970s and 1980s, all the estates developed populations with high proportions of unemployed and child residents (Chapter 10). Many estates were conducive to children's play, which sometimes shaded into vandalism and anti-social behaviour (Chapter 11). Some estates had distinctive communities, and some residents did not want or feel able to contribute to informal social control (Chapters 10 and 11). Anne Power, who commenced the study this book is based on, believed that the absence of effective housing management contributed to the development of problems, including crime and disorder (Power 1984, 1985). Additional evidence provided in this book demonstrates how housing management took some responsibility for contributing to or failing to prevent the development of problems with safety and order (Chapters 6 and 8). For example, council housing allocations played a role in the development of residualised populations and unusual social environments in the 20 estates, through ‘dumping’ policies, through ‘matching’ and through failing to prevent the differentiating effects of standard allocations policy across housing stocks of varying popularity (Chapter 10). Inadequate or slow responses to minor crime or antisocial behaviour due to insufficient or remote management might allow more serious problems and unusual forms of crime to become established.

Potential estate-level explanations for rises in safety and order since the 1980s

All the estates, then, experienced multiple changes from the 1970s onwards which were likely to have contributed to rises in safety and order.