Abstract

Sports provide an inexhaustible source of fascinating and challenging problems in many disciplines, including mathematics. In recent years, due to the emergence of some exceptional athletes, prediction of athletic records has received a great deal of attention. For example, mathematicians have tried to model the improvements of records over time in order to forecast future records, including ultimate records. Records set in different sports shed light on human strengths and limitations and provide data for scientific investigations, training, and treatment programs.

This article reviews some common methods used for modeling and analysis of athletic performances and the effect an exceptional individual like Usain Bolt could have on the results. Methods discussed include trend analysis, tail modeling, and methods based on certain results of the theory of records. Data from a few athletic events including the men's 100m dash are used for demonstration.

Introduction

At the August, 2009 world track and field competitions in Berlin, Usain Bolt, the Jamaican sprinting sensation put on some amazing performances, shattering his own records in both the 100 and 200 meter lowering both by 0:11 seconds to an amazing 9:58 seconds in the 100 meter and 19:19 in the 200 meter. The man is certainly on another level.

His time is the greatest improvement in the 100 meter record since electronic timing began in 1968. Bolt is not done yet and who knows how fast he can run. In fact, he thinks he can do better.