The quadrupling of the prison population since the 1970s and the precipitous drop in crime rates beginning in the early 1990s are two of the most striking recent trends in crime and punishment in the United States (see Blumstein and Wallman 2000; Hughes and Wilson 2003). The possible connection between the growth in imprisonment and the decline in crime has generated considerable popular and scholarly debate, the key issue being how much, if any, of the crime drop can be ascribed to prison growth through the incapacitation of criminals, deterrence of would-be offenders, or both.

Prison growth has resulted from an increase in both the number of offenders sentenced and the length of time they serve in prison (Blumstein and Beck 1999). The extension of prison time, though, has not been great enough to prevent what, in the absence of permanent incarceration, would be expected to ensue from the quadrupling of the prison population: a burgeoning number of people returning from prison. Attention to massive “prisoner reentry” coincides with signs that the crime drop of the 1990s may be bottoming out or even reversing in the first years of the 21st century. And, just as many observers credited the prison boom for the crime drop, some see a causal connection between recent upturns in crime and either the volume of prison releases or the nature of those returning.