Sectoral Risks and Uncertainties

What is the context of agricultural policymaking in India in which pilots emerge? What are the risks and uncertainties that pilots are designed to deal with? Does the federal structure of agricultural governance in India aid or hinder the design and implementation of these pilots? These are some questions that motivated the development of this chapter and formed the basis for the purposive sampling of pilots that are further detailed and analysed in Chapters 3 and 4.

While having among the largest area under rainfed agriculture in the world, India ranks among the lowest in terms of yields from rainfed agriculture (GOI 2011). Nearly two-third of India's agricultural land is rainfed and the productivity from rainfed areas is further affected by declining soil fertility, fragmentation of agricultural landholdings and climate change, among other challenges. The policy significance of the sector for Indian economy is evident. Agriculture accounts for 15.4 per cent of the country’sgross domestic product (GDP) and provides employment to around 49 per cent of the population (GOI 2019). The share of workers engaged in the agriculture sector, however, has been declining over the years. The sector's contribution to GDP has also seen a decline from 30 per cent in the1990s to below 20 per cent 2010 onwards (RBI 2019).

The agricultural workers comprise of cultivators and agricultural labourers or landless labourers working on farms owned by others. Table 2.1 presents the changing profile of the agricultural workforce in India from 1961–2011. During this period, the proportion of cultivators and consequently the proportion of agricultural workers declined, while the proportion of agricultural labourers increased from 19.56 per cent in 1961 to 30 per cent in 2011 (over five times) (Jha 2018).

The net area sown in India is 140.13 million hectares, 43 per cent of the country's total geographical area, with a net irrigated area of 68.4 million hectares. The gross cropped area is 198.4 million hectares with a cropping intensity of 142 per cent (DAC 2018a). Unsustainable groundwater pumping has contributed to the decline of groundwater in many parts of the country, further challenging the sustainability of agriculture in the future as well in rainfed zones (GOI 2011). From 2005–15, the area under non-agricultural activities has increased by 1.89 million hectares accounting for 8.7 per cent, which is not surprising given increasing urbanization and industrialization (DAC 2017b).