Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction Transformation and its aftermath
- 1 Time matters: the dynamics of regime support
- 2 The supply of regimes: democratic and autocratic
- 3 A changing supply of Russian regimes
- 4 Uncertainties of transformation: a view from the bottom
- 5 Changing levels of regime support
- 6 Social structure and the evaluation of regimes
- 7 The influence of political values and performance
- 8 Finding the economic influences that matter
- 9 The impact of the passage of time
- 10 What could challenge the new equilibrium?
- Appendix A New Russia Barometer samples
- Appendix B Coding of variables
- References
- Index
10 - What could challenge the new equilibrium?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 22 September 2009
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- List of figures
- List of tables
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction Transformation and its aftermath
- 1 Time matters: the dynamics of regime support
- 2 The supply of regimes: democratic and autocratic
- 3 A changing supply of Russian regimes
- 4 Uncertainties of transformation: a view from the bottom
- 5 Changing levels of regime support
- 6 Social structure and the evaluation of regimes
- 7 The influence of political values and performance
- 8 Finding the economic influences that matter
- 9 The impact of the passage of time
- 10 What could challenge the new equilibrium?
- Appendix A New Russia Barometer samples
- Appendix B Coding of variables
- References
- Index
Summary
You can't step into the same river twice.
HeraclitusIf things are going to stay the same, there will have to be some changes made.
Giuseppe Lampedusa, The LeopardA primary object of the winners of the initial battles of transformation is to achieve an equilibrium of popular support for the new regime through a combination of political performance, economic measures, and the passage of time. In Central and Eastern Europe, there has been dynamic progress from the confusion of the first elections in 1990 to securing popular acceptance and locking the new regimes into the European Union.
Once a steady-state equilibrium is achieved, the next concern of leaders is to maintain support. Fluctuations in the major influences on popular support are facts of political life. The more evenly balanced forces are, the greater the risk that a small change in the impact of one influence will have big consequences for the regime. Whether an equilibrium is democratic or autocratic, political leaders must remain watchful of challenges to the institutions that empower them. Vigilance is not only the price of liberty; it is also the price that autocrats must pay to maintain a repressive regime. The more that political elites ignore changes in the sources of their support, the greater the risk that such pressures will create a major challenge.
In the medium term, the question is not whether a challenge to a regime will arise but when and how it will occur.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Russia TransformedDeveloping Popular Support for a New Regime, pp. 185 - 201Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2006