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7 - Strategic risk analyses

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Torben Juul Andersen
Affiliation:
Copenhagen Business School
Peter Winther Schrøder
Affiliation:
Copenhagen Business School
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Summary

This chapter will discuss a variety of analytical tools that may be adopted for risk management purposes. Initially, common tools applicable to analyze trends and emerging issues within predictable and known business environments are put forward, and a resemblance to strategic management is revealed through examples. Uncertainty is added to the spectrum, and the use of templates such as scenario planning and real options is outlined. It is shown how these approaches may enable the corporation to evaluate the effect of a changing risk landscape and to take necessary precautionary measures. Environmental uncertainty affects the corporation and introduces unexpected events that can cause major deviations to plans. The relevance of contingency planning is discussed and it is argued that it may work in simple and predictable environments to handle more severe deviations. However, it is subsequently argued that it must be complemented by a culture of mindfulness known from high reliability organizations in more complex and unpredictable environments. The chapter is rounded off with a discussion of risk management under unknowable environmental conditions as it must deal with ‘unk unks’. The role of values, behaviour and corporate culture in dealing with uncertainty and unforeseeable events is considered.

Environmental scanning in a predictable world

Corporations often face environmental changes that seem to come out of thin air. The previous chapter suggested that nearly 90 per cent of the drops in shareholder value can be attributed to strategic and operational risk events.

Type
Chapter
Information
Strategic Risk Management Practice
How to Deal Effectively with Major Corporate Exposures
, pp. 146 - 177
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2010

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References

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Choo, C. W. (1999). ‘The Art of Scanning the Environment’. Bulletin of the American Society for Information Science. February/March, pp. 21–4Google Scholar
Johnson, G., Scholes, K. and Whittington, R. (2005). Exploring Corporate Strategy. Pearson Education: Harlow, United KingdomGoogle Scholar
Porter, M. E. (1980). Competitive Structure. Free Press: New YorkGoogle Scholar
Porter, M. E. (1990). The Competitive Advantage of Nations. Free Press: New YorkCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slywotzky, A. (1996). Value Migration: How to Think Several Moves Ahead of the Competition. Harvard Business School Press: Boston, MassachusettsGoogle Scholar
D'Aveni, R. (1994). Hypercompetition. Free Press: New YorkGoogle Scholar
Porter, M. E. (1985). Competitive Advantage. Free Press: New YorkGoogle Scholar
Barney, J. B. (2002). Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage (2nd edn). Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, New JerseyGoogle Scholar
Prahalad, C. K. and Hamel, G. (1990). ‘The Core Competence of the Corporation’. Harvard Business Review 68(3), pp. 79–91Google Scholar
Kim, W. C. and Mauborgne, R. (2004). ‘Blue Ocean Strategy’. Harvard Business Review 82(10), pp. 76–84Google ScholarPubMed
Kytle, B. and Ruggie, J. G. (2005). Corporate Social Responsibility as Risk Management: A Model for Multinationals. Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of GovernmentGoogle Scholar
Andrews, K. (1971). The Concept of Corporate Strategy. Homewood: Chicago, IllinoisGoogle Scholar
Walker, S. M. (2001). Operational Risk Management – Controlling Opportunities and Threats. Connley Walker Pty Ltd: MelbourneGoogle Scholar
Steward, D. V. (1981). Systems Analysis and Management: Structure, Strategy and Design. Petrocelli Books: New YorkGoogle Scholar
Eppinger, S. D., Whitney, D. E., Smith, R. P. and Gebala, D. A. (1994). ‘A Model-Based Method for Organizing Tasks in Product Development’. Research in Engineering Design 6, pp. 1–13CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loach, C. H., DeMeyer, A. and Pich, M. T. (2006). Managing the Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects. John Wiley & Sons: New York, p. 101CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2004). ‘Peripheral Vision: Sensing and Acting on Weak Signals’. Long Range Planning 37, pp. 117–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bazerman, M. H. and Watkins, M. D. (2004). ‘Organizational Roots: The Role of Institutional Failures’ in Predictable Surprises – The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them. Harvard Business School Press: Boston, MassachusettsGoogle Scholar
Damodaran, A. (2008). Strategic Risk Taking – A Framework for Risk Management. Wharton School Publishing: PennsylvaniaGoogle Scholar
Focardi, S. and Jonas, C. (1998). Risk Management: Framework, Methods, and Practice. Frank J. Fabozzi Associates: PennsylvaniaGoogle Scholar
Dembo, R. S. and Freeman, A. (1998). Seeing Tomorrow: Rewriting the Rules of Risk. John Wiley & Sons: New YorkGoogle Scholar
Mills, R. W. with Print, C. F. and Rowbotham, S. A. (1999). Managerial Finance, Shareholder Value and Value Based Management: Linking Business Performance and Value Creation. Mars Business Associates: London, p. 27Google Scholar
Miller, K. D. and Waller, H. G. (2003). ‘Scenarios, Real Options and Integrated Risk Management’. Long Range Planning 36, pp. 93–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGee, J., Thomas, H. and Wilson, D. (2005). Strategy: Analysis and Practice. McGraw-Hill: Maidenhead, Berkshire, pp. 545–54Google Scholar
Weick, K. E. and Sutcliffe, K. M. (2001). Managing the Unexpected. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco, p. 81Google Scholar
Christopher, M. and Peck, H. (2004). ‘The Five Principles of Supply Chain Resilience’. Logistics Europe 12(1), pp. 16–21Google Scholar
Norrman, A. and Jansson, U. (2004). ‘Ericsson's Proactive Supply Chain Risk Management Approach after a Serious Sub-Supplier Accident’. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management 34(5), pp. 434–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deming, W. E. (2000). Out of the Crisis: Quality, Productivity and Competitive Position. MIT Press: Cambridge, MassachusettsGoogle Scholar
Andersen, T. J. (2000). ‘Real Options Analysis in Strategic Decision Making: An Applied Approach in a Dual Options Framework’. Journal of Applied Management Studies 9(2), pp. 235–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgelman, R. A. (2005). ‘The Role of Strategy Making in Organizational Evolution’ in Bower, J. L. and Gilbert, C. G. (eds.), From Resource Allocation to Strategy. Oxford University Press: New York, pp. 38–70Google Scholar

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