Meaning of normative future models or policy models

The previous chapters led to the central policy question for the future: how should the division of professional and family labour in democratic societies be developed? Starting from the conceptual approach and the empirical models of the actual development (see Figures 4.15 and 4.24, Chapter 4), future development can be explored in many different ways, looking at what people think, expect, hope, believe or want to happen in the future. Consequently, an immense number of models or images of future development are possible, and many different scenarios or paths leading to those models (de Smedt, 2005). From a scientific point of view, it is necessary to develop future models that have a strong empirical basis and sufficiently link up with (the empirical models of) actual development. But even then a large number of future models are possible. So, further selection is necessary to avoid a too extensive and too expensive scientific exploration process. After all, future scientific models and scenarios always (have to) serve certain societal goals and must therefore be developed in an efficient way. This process must lead to the most relevant future models that are largely feasible and desirable.

So, we automatically come to the normative dimension that is always present in societal life and in all scientific research. Since all scientific models of the past and current world have a normative dimension, background or determinant, this is certainly the case for all scientific models of the future world. This normative dimension can be explicit or implicit, dominant or subordinate, clear or vague, and so on, but it is always there. In the past, many scientists or scientific schools tried to hide the normative component. An integrated view on science implies that the normative dimension is explicitly and actively used in a controlled way, as a positive, constructive and selective component for the development of the most relevant future models. With this perspective, we use the terms ‘normative future models’ or ‘policy models’.

This brings us back to the basic normative question that all democratic countries or societies have to answer: which model of the division of professional and family labour should be (further) developed in the future, in the long and short run?