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4 - Rare events and lotteries

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 August 2012

Henk Tijms
Affiliation:
Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
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Summary

How does one calculate the probability of throwing heads more than fifteen times in 25 tosses of a fair coin? What is the probability of winning a lottery prize? Is it exceptional for a city that averages eight serious fires per year to experience twelve serious fires in one particular year? These kinds of questions can be answered by the probability distributions that we will be looking at in this chapter. These are the binomial distribution, the Poisson distribution and the hypergeometric distribution. A basic knowledge of these distributions is essential in the study of probability theory. This chapter gives insight into the different types of problems to which these probability distributions can be applied. The binomial model refers to a series of independent trials of an experiment that has two possible outcomes. Such an elementary experiment is also known as a Bernoulli experiment, after the famous Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli (1654–1705). Inmost cases, the two possible outcomes of a Bernoulli experiment will be specified as “success” or “failure.” Many probability problems boil down to determining the probability distribution of the total number of successes in a series of independent trials of a Bernoulli experiment. The Poisson distribution is another important distribution and is used, in particular, to model the occurrence of rare events. When you know the expected value of a Poisson distribution, you know enough to calculate all of the probabilities of that distribution.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2012

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  • Rare events and lotteries
  • Henk Tijms, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
  • Book: Understanding Probability
  • Online publication: 05 August 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139206990.006
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  • Rare events and lotteries
  • Henk Tijms, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
  • Book: Understanding Probability
  • Online publication: 05 August 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139206990.006
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Rare events and lotteries
  • Henk Tijms, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
  • Book: Understanding Probability
  • Online publication: 05 August 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139206990.006
Available formats
×