Once termed the 'world's largest military museum', the Chinese military has made enormous progress over the past twenty years. With skyrocketing military budgets and new technology, China's tanks, aircraft, destroyers, and missile capabilities are becoming comparable to those of the United States. If these trends continue, how powerful will the Chinese military be in the future? Will its capabilities soon rival or surpass those of the United States? The most comprehensive study of its kind, this book provides a detailed assessment of China's military capabilities in 2000 and 2010 with projections for 2020. It is the first of its kind in outlining a rigorous, theoretically and empirically grounded framework for assessing military capability based on not just weaponry but also doctrine, training, equipment, and organizational structure. This framework provides not only the most accurate assessment of China's military to date but an important new tool in the study of military history.

'Roger Cliff’s analysis, and especially the metrics he offers for gauging the PLA, could not be timelier. As this important volume goes to print, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is poised to undergo another period of re-energized reform and modernization as a result of decisions made at the Third Plenum of the Eighteenth Central Committee. Cliff has brought a degree of rigor to the analysis of the Chinese armed forces that deserves the serious attention of all who are engaged in studying this evolving military establishment.'

David M. Finkelstein - Vice President, CNA Corporation, and Director, CNA China Studies

'At the heart of Cliff’s book is an assessment of who would win if a war broke out between the US and China in this region … As befits his background as a defence analyst, the scenarios [he] presents are complex and highly detailed …'

Howard W. French Source: London Review of Books