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Epidemic models featuring behaviour change

Part of: Markov processes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

Philip O'neill
Philip O'neill*
Affiliation:
University of Bradford
*
* Postal address: Department of Mathematics, University of Bradford, Bradford, BD7 1DP, UK.
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Abstract

This paper considers a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed population whose members are in either a high-risk or a low-risk activity group. Further, members of the high-risk group may change their behaviour by entering the low-risk group. Both stochastic and deterministic models are examined. A limiting model, appropriate when there is a large number of initially susceptible individuals, is used to provide a threshold analysis. The epidemic is compared to a single group epidemic, and to suitably parametrised two-group epidemics, using a coupling method. The total size distribution and effects of changing the behaviour change rate are considered.

Keywords

SIZE OF EPIDEMICDETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC MODELSCOUPLING METHODSINTERCONNECTED BIRTH-AND-DEATH PROCESSES

MSC classification

Primary: 92D30: Epidemiology
Secondary: 60J27: Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces
Type
General Applied Probability
Information
Advances in Applied Probability , Volume 27 , Issue 4 , December 1995 , pp. 960 - 979
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1995 

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