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The Stochastic Process of Alliance Formation Behavior*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Richard P. Y. Li  and
William R. Thompson
Richard P. Y. Li
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
William R. Thompson
Affiliation:
Florida State University
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Abstract

This article attempts to examine alliance formation behavior as a stochastic process amenable to systems interpretation. We test two hypotheses linking the systems characteristics of bipolar distribution/tightly knit bloc structure to serial dependence and stability of alliance formation behavior and multipolar distribution/loosely knit bloc structure to randomness and process instability.

For testing these hypotheses, we have introduced a modeling strategy whereby identification of serial dependence and parameter estimation are accomplished by means of stochastic difference equations and time series autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions, and systems interpretation is facilitated by employing its continuous analogue in differential equation form.

We analyze data on three sets of observations corresponding to three distinct periods of international relations: 1815–1914, 1919–1939, 1945–1965. The results do confirm the proposed hypotheses revealing randomness and instability of alliance formation behavior in the multipolar/loosely knit periods of 1815–1914 and 1919–1939 and serial dependence and stability in the bipolar/tightly knit 1945–1965 period. Finally, we consider the implications of these results for the earlier findings, the balance of power model, and the probability of war.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 72 , Issue 4 , December 1978 , pp. 1288 - 1303
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1978

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Footnotes

*

An earlier version of this paper was delivered at the 1976 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association (Toronto). The authors wish to thank Dinna Zinnes, Richard Hayes and several anonymous reviewers for their constructive criticisms.

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