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Trend forecasting: Collecting the history of the future

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 December 2016

Amy Ballmer  and
Jennifer Tobias
Amy Ballmer
Affiliation:
Head of Research & Instructional Services, Fashion Institute of Technology, 27 W. 27th Street, New York, NY, USA Email: amy_ballmer@fitnyc.edu
Jennifer Tobias
Affiliation:
Reader Services Librarian, Museum of Modern Art, New York, 4 W. 54th Street, New York, NY, USA
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Abstract

How do art and design libraries collect the history of the future? Trend forecasting literature presents exactly that challenge. These multifaceted print and digital publications, issued regularly and expensively by a handful of companies, are held by few libraries even as they influence everything from womenswear to computer games. We examine how libraries collect these materials and consider their role in the broader information landscape.

First, we historically situate forecasting, looking to origins in colour charts, trade catalogues and international communications. Next, we look at the post-war institutionalization of trend forecasting, describing its role in the consolidation of a consumer-oriented supply chain.

With the Fashion Institute of Technology as the case study, we then examine forecasting in context: how faculty incorporate it into pedagogy, how students engage with the materials and how librarians integrate critical thinking and information literacy into instruction. Practical matters such as cost, housing, long-term archiving and access are also addressed.

We conclude with a forecast of forecasting, examining its move to digital formats and the challenge of meeting pedagogical needs that are at once rigorous (as accreditation demands) and creative (as schools promise), reflecting the mash-up wonder of today's fashion discourse.

Type
Research Article
Information
Art Libraries Journal , Volume 42 , Special Issue 1: Fashion - Resources and Research , January 2017 , pp. 19 - 25
Copyright
Copyright © ARLIS/UK&Ireland 2017 

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References

1. Raymond, Martin, The trend forecaster's handbook. (London: Laurence King, 2010), 79 Google Scholar.

2. For a history of pre-war forecasting told through two case studies see Pouillard, Véronique, “The rise of fashion forecasting and fashion public relations, 1920–1940s: the history of Tobé and Bernays,” in Berghoff, Harmut and Kuhne, Thomas, Globalizing beauty: consumerism and body aesthetics in the Twentieth Century (New York: Palgrave, 2013)Google Scholar.

3. The most in-depth history of forecasting to date is Thierry Maillet, Histoire de la médiation entre textile et mode en France: des échantillonneurs aux bureaux de style (1825–1975). (PhD diss., École doctorale de l’École des hautes études en sciences sociales. 2013).

4. For background on textile sales see Peck, Amelia and Bogansky, Amy, Interwoven globe: the worldwide textile trade, 1500–1800 (New York: Metropolitan Museum, 2013)Google Scholar.

5. Pouillard, “The rise of fashion forecasting,” 152.

6. Scully, , Kate, , and Cobb, Debra Johnston, Color Forecasting for Fashion. (London: Laurence King, 2012)Google Scholar.

7. For a concise history of the Syndicale and its influence see Rocamora, Agnes, Fashioning the city: Paris, fashion and the media. (London: I.B.Tauris, 2009)Google Scholar.

8. White, Cynthia, Women's magazines, 1693–1968 (London: Joseph 1970)Google Scholar. A focused history of the subject is forthcoming: Best, Kate, The history of fashion journalism (London: Bloomsbury, 2017)Google Scholar.

9. Lefebure, Antoine, Havas: les arcanes du pouvoir. (Paris: B. Grasset, 1992)Google Scholar.

10. Maillet, Histoire de la médiation.

11. Ibid.

12. Ibid.

13. Evans, Caroline, The mechanical smile: modernism and the first fashion shows in France and America, 1900–1929 (New Haven: Yale, 2013), 170 Google Scholar.

14. Rachel Dodes. “The 80-year hunt for ‘it’ fashions.” Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2010. Accessed August 3 2016.

15. Véronique Pouillard. “From dressmakers to fashion consulting: intermediaries in the fashion business (1920–1960)” (Paper presented at the EBHA Conference, Barcelona, September 16–18, 2004).

16. Vincent-Ricard, Françoise. Raison et passion: langages de société, la mode, 1940–1990. (Paris: Textile, art, langage, 1983)Google Scholar.

17. Grumbach, Didier, Didier, . Histoires de la mode (Paris: Editions du Regard, 2008). 204–205 Google Scholar.

18. Popcorn, Faith. The Popcorn report: Faith Popcorn on the future of your company, your world, your life (New York: Doubleday, 1991)Google Scholar.

19. “Li Edelkoort publishes manifesto explaining why fashion is obsolete” Dezeen. March 2, 2015. Accessed August 8 2016. http://www.dezeen.com/2015/03/02/li-edelkoort-manifesto-anti-fashion-obsolete.

20. Lorraine Weberg (retired FIT librarian) in discussion with Amy Ballmer, April 2016.

21. “The Gloves: May Co. Names French Head of New Foreign Buying Setup,” Women's Wear Daily, March 16, 1973.

22. FIT Library, Nigel French Finding Aid. Accessed July 22, 2016, https://drive.google.com/a/fitnyc.edu/file/d/0BxiyxEDLonFgajBMMFlhNWVHT2s/view?usp=sharing&usp=embed_facebook.

23. Weberg and Ballmer.

24. “An International Shuts Down,” WWD, May 10, 1988.

25. Conversation with Lana Bittman (Head of Electronic and Serials Resources), April 2016.

26. Weberg and Ballmer.

27. Lana Bittman and Tabitha Hanslick Nguyen, “Preserving Historical Fashion Forecasts: Conservation/Preservation Discretionary Grant Program Project Number: 0305155280” (Final report to the New York State Education Department) 2015, 2.

28. For a sample Trend Union record see http://fit.sunyconnect.suny.edu:4690/F?func=direct&doc_number=000132995.

29. Bittman and Nguyen, “FIT Library: Preserving Historical Forecasts,” 12.

30. Anne Appert, “FIT Library Research Guides: Forecast Collection,” Gladys Marcus Library, Fashion Institute of Technology, accessed July 29, 2016, http://fitnyc.libguides.com/forecastcollection.

31. Weberg and Ballmer.

32. The panel ‘Supporting the Curriculum: Fabulous Forecasts!’ March 3, 2011, was organized by the Gladys Marcus Library and featured FIT professors Sandra Markus (Fashion Design), Nancy Ostroff (Fashion Business Management) and Sara Pettit (Fabric Styling). Profs. Nancy Ostroff and Marian Weston (Library) co-presented papers at the Fashion Now & Then conference ‘Seeing the Future: Learning to Use Online Fashion Forecasting Services’ on October 3, 2013 and ‘Forecasting the Forecasts: the Evolution of Trend Forecasting for Fashion Business’ on October 24, 2014.

33. Weberg and Ballmer.

34. Forecasting magazines are similar to forecast services but less thorough, and as a result the license is less restrictive.

35. Nancy Ostroff, “FM 245 - Fashion Forecasting for Merchandisers Student Course Outline.'”

36. Ibid.