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Are base rates a natural category of information?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Terry Connolly
Terry Connolly
Affiliation:
Department of Management and Policy, BPA, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721. connolly@aruba.ccit.arizona.edu
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Abstract

The base rate fallacy is directly dependent on a particular judgment paradigm in which information may be unambiguously designated as either “base rate” or “individuating,” and in which subjects make two-stage sequential judgments. The paradigm may be a poor match for real world settings, and the fallacy may thus be undefined for natural ecologies of judgment.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 19 - 20
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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