Nearly 300 species of landbirds, whose populations total billions, migrate between the Neotropics and North America. Many migratory populations are in steep decline, and migration is often identified as the greatest source of annual mortality. Identifying birds’ needs on migration is therefore central to designing conservation actions for Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds; yet migration through the Neotropics is a significant knowledge gap in our understanding of the full annual cycle. Here, we synthesise current knowledge of Neotropical stopover regions and migratory bottlenecks, focusing on long-distance, migratory landbirds that spend the boreal winter in South America. We make the important distinction between “true” stopover—involving multi-day refuelling stops—and rest-roost stops lasting < 24 hours, citing a growing number of studies that show individual landbirds making long stopovers in just a few strategic areas, to accumulate large energy reserves for long-distance flights. Based on an exhaustive literature search, we found few published stopover studies from the Neotropics, but combined with recent tracking studies, they describe prolonged stopovers for multiple species in the Orinoco grasslands (Llanos), the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (Colombia), and the Yucatan Peninsula. Bottlenecks for diurnal migrants are well described, with the narrowing Central American geography concentrating millions of migrating raptors at several points in SE Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama and the Darién. However, diurnally migrating aerial insectivores remain understudied, and determining stopover/roost sites for this steeply declining group is a priority. Despite advances in our knowledge of migration in the Neotropics, we conclude that major knowledge gaps persist. To identify stopover sites and habitats and the threats they face, we propose a targeted and collaborative research agenda at an expanded network of Neotropical sites, within the context of regional conservation planning strategies.

Illegal killing/taking of birds is a growing concern across the Mediterranean. However, there are few quantitative data on the species and countries involved. We assessed numbers of individual birds of each species killed/taken illegally in each Mediterranean country per year, using a diverse range of data sources and incorporating expert knowledge. We estimated that 11–36 million individuals per year may be killed/taken illegally in the region, many of them on migration. In each of Cyprus, Egypt, Italy, Lebanon and Syria, more than two million birds may be killed/taken on average each year. For species such as Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla, Common Quail Coturnix coturnix, Eurasian Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, House Sparrow Passer domesticus and Song Thrush Turdus philomelos, more than one million individuals of each species are estimated to be killed/taken illegally on average every year. Several species of global conservation concern are also reported to be killed/taken illegally in substantial numbers: Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata, Ferruginous Duck Aythya nyroca and Rock Partridge Alectoris graeca. Birds in the Mediterranean are illegally killed/taken primarily for food, sport and for use as cage-birds or decoys. At the 20 worst locations with the highest reported numbers, 7.9 million individuals may be illegally killed/taken per year, representing 34% of the mean estimated annual regional total number of birds illegally killed/taken for all species combined. Our study highlighted the paucity of data on illegal killing/taking of birds. Monitoring schemes which use systematic sampling protocols are needed to generate increasingly robust data on trends in illegal killing/taking over time and help stakeholders prioritise conservation actions to address this international conservation problem. Large numbers of birds are also hunted legally in the region, but specific totals are generally unavailable. Such data, in combination with improved estimates for illegal killing/taking, are needed for robustly assessing the sustainability of exploitation of birds.

The Numeniini is a tribe of 13 wader species (Scolopacidae, Charadriiformes) of which seven are Near Threatened or globally threatened, including two Critically Endangered. To help inform conservation management and policy responses, we present the results of an expert assessment of the threats that members of this taxonomic group face across migratory flyways. Most threats are increasing in intensity, particularly in non-breeding areas, where habitat loss resulting from residential and commercial development, aquaculture, mining, transport, disturbance, problematic invasive species, pollution and climate change were regarded as having the greatest detrimental impact. Fewer threats (mining, disturbance, problematic native species and climate change) were identified as widely affecting breeding areas. Numeniini populations face the greatest number of non-breeding threats in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, especially those associated with coastal reclamation; related threats were also identified across the Central and Atlantic Americas, and East Atlantic flyways. Threats on the breeding grounds were greatest in Central and Atlantic Americas, East Atlantic and West Asian flyways. Three priority actions were associated with monitoring and research: to monitor breeding population trends (which for species breeding in remote areas may best be achieved through surveys at key non-breeding sites), to deploy tracking technologies to identify migratory connectivity, and to monitor land-cover change across breeding and non-breeding areas. Two priority actions were focused on conservation and policy responses: to identify and effectively protect key non-breeding sites across all flyways (particularly in the East Asian- Australasian Flyway), and to implement successful conservation interventions at a sufficient scale across human-dominated landscapes for species’ recovery to be achieved. If implemented urgently, these measures in combination have the potential to alter the current population declines of many Numeniini species and provide a template for the conservation of other groups of threatened species.

The illegal killing and taking of wild birds remains a major threat on a global scale. However, there are few quantitative data on the species affected and countries involved. We quantified the scale and scope of this issue in Northern and Central Europe and the Caucasus, using a diverse range of data sources and incorporating expert knowledge. The issue was reported to be widespread across the region and affects almost all countries/territories assessed. We estimated that 0.4–2.1 million birds per year may be killed/taken illegally in the region. The highest estimate of illegal killing in the region was for Azerbaijan (0.2-1.0 million birds per year). Out of the 20 worst locations identified, 13 were located in the Caucasus. Birds were reported to be illegally killed/taken primarily for sport and food in the Caucasus and for sport and predator/pest control in both Northern and Central Europe. All of the 28 countries assessed are parties to the Bern Convention and 19 are also European Union Member States. There are specific initiatives under both these policy instruments to tackle this threat, yet our data showed that illegal killing and taking is still occurring and is not restricted to Mediterranean European countries. Markedly increased effort is required to ensure that existing legislation is adequately implemented and complied with/enforced on the ground. Our study also highlighted the paucity of data on illegal killing and taking of birds in the region. It is a priority, identified by relevant initiatives under the Bern Convention and the European Union, to implement systematic monitoring of illegal killing and taking and to collate robust data, allowing stakeholders to set priorities, track trends and monitor the effectiveness of responses.

Populations of several long-distance migratory songbirds in Eurasia are in peril, drastically illustrated by the recent range-wide population collapse in the Yellow-breasted Bunting Emberiza aureola. There are signals of a strong decline also in the Rustic Bunting E. rustica, but no range-wide assessment of population trends in this superabundant and widespread bunting species has yet been undertaken. The conservation status of Rustic Bunting is ‘Least Concern’ on the global IUCN Red List, but it has recently been upgraded to ‘Vulnerable’ on the European Red List. To assess the Rustic Bunting’s global conservation status we compiled, for the first time, population data across its breeding and wintering ranges. The analysis reveals a 75–87% decline in overall population size over the last 30 years and a 32–91% decline over the last 10 years. The trend estimates indicate that the long-term (30-year) range-wide population decline in the Rustic Bunting is of similar magnitude to two well-known examples of declining species within the same genus, the Yellow-breasted Bunting and the Ortolan Bunting E. hortulana. The magnitude of the range-wide population decline over the last 10 years suggests that the Rustic Bunting could be upgraded from ‘Least Concern’ to ‘Vulnerable’ or ‘Endangered’ on the IUCN global Red List. Agricultural intensification in the wintering range and intensified levels of disturbance, including logging and fire, in the breeding range could be important drivers of the range-wide population decline, and persecution could also contribute. Untangling threat factors and their interactions on Rustic Bunting is necessary for conservation, but hampered by our currently limited understanding of the relationships between population dynamics and different threats.

Cambodia supports populations of three Critically Endangered vulture species that are believed to have become isolated from the rest of the species’ global range. Until recently Cambodia’s vulture populations had remained stable. However a recent spike in the number of reports of the use of poisons in hunting practices suggests the need to re-evaluate the conservation situation in Cambodia. Population trend analysis showed that since 2010 populations of the White-rumped Vulture Gyps bengalensis and Red-headed Vulture Sarcogyps calvus have declined, while the Slender-billed Vulture Gyps tenuirostris may also have started to decline since 2013. These trends are supported by evidence of reduced nesting success. A survey of veterinary drug availability revealed that diclofenac, the non-steroid anti-inflammatory drug responsible for vulture declines in South Asia was not available for sale in any of the 74 pharmacies surveyed. However, a poisoned Slender-billed Vulture tested positive for carbofuran in toxicology tests. This provides the first evidence of a vulture mortality resulting from carbofuran in Cambodia. The findings suggest the urgent need to tackle use of carbamate pesticides in hunting. Proposed conservation actions are: a) prevention of poisoning through national bans on harmful carbamate pesticides and diclofenac and education campaigns to reduce demand and use; b) training of personnel in priority protected areas in detection and response to poisoning incidents; c) maintenance of a safe and reliable food source through vulture restaurants to ensure short-term survival, and d) protection and restoration of large areas of deciduous dipterocarp forests to enable long-term species recovery.

Populations of the White-rumped Vulture Gyps bengalensis, Indian Vulture G. indicus and Slender-billed Vulture G. tenuirostris declined rapidly during the mid-1990s all over their ranges in the Indian subcontinent because of poisoning due to veterinary use of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac. This paper reports results from the latest in a series of road transect surveys conducted across northern, central, western and north-eastern India since the early 1990s. Results from the seven comparable surveys now available were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level. The previously rapid decline of White-rumped Vulture has slowed and may have reversed since the ban on veterinary use of diclofenac in India in 2006. A few thousand of this species, possibly up to the low tens of thousands, remained in India in 2015. The population of Indian Vulture continued to decline, though probably at a much slower rate than in the 1990s. This remains the most numerous of the three species in India with about 12,000 individuals in 2015 and a confidence interval ranging from a few thousands to a few tens of thousands. The trend in the rarest species, Slender-billed Vulture, which probably numbers not much more than 1,000 individuals in India, cannot be determined reliably.

The Greater Spotted Eagle is an extremely rare species which is strongly associated with wetlands during the breeding period. The winter habitats of this vulnerable species have not been extensively studied so far, although eagles spend over one third of the year there, and these are therefore also crucial for the conservation of the species. We investigated the distribution of Greater Spotted Eagle wintering grounds in the Mediterranean Basin on the basis of telemetry data from individuals caught in breeding grounds, detailed species counts during wintering in Greece, and a literature search. We found that at least 300–400 individuals (c.15% of the European population) winter in the Mediterranean Basin, sometimes numbering a few dozen in particular river valleys. Individuals used on average 89.7 km2 home ranges for wintering. The Maxent model of wintering habitats performed with high reliability, indicating that most of the coastline along the Mediterranean Sea and some parts of the Black Sea are suitable for the wintering of this species. The distribution of coastal marshes was the most informative for the model. Compositional analyses done for home ranges of GPS tracked individuals and wintering sites in Greece showed the highest preference for salines and salt marshes but also a high preference for coastal lagoons and water courses. We link wetland preference with the availability of medium size prey, optimal for this species, and prey specialisation common to breeding sites.

Invasive rodents detrimentally affect native bird species on many islands worldwide, and rodent eradication is a useful tool to safeguard endemic and threatened species. However, especially on tropical islands, rodent eradications can fail for various reasons, and it is unclear whether the temporary reduction of a rodent population during an unsuccessful eradication operation has beneficial effects on native birds. Here we examine the response of four endemic land bird species on subtropical Henderson Island in the Pitcairn Island Group, South Pacific Ocean, following an unsuccessful rodent eradication in 2011. We conducted point counts at 25 sampling locations in 14 survey periods between 2011 and 2015, and modelled the abundance trends of all species using binomial mixture models accounting for observer and environmental variation in detection probability. Henderson Reed Warbler Acrocephalus taiti more than doubled in abundance (2015 population estimate: 7,194-28,776), and Henderson Fruit Dove Ptilinopus insularis increased slightly between 2011 and 2015 (2015 population estimate: 4,476–10,072), while we detected no change in abundance of the Henderson Lorikeet Vini stepheni (2015 population estimate: 554–3014). Henderson Crake Zapornia atra increased to pre-eradication levels following anticipated mortality during the operation (2015 population estimate: 4,960–20,783). A temporary reduction of rat predation pressure and rat competition for fruit may have benefitted the reed warbler and the fruit dove, respectively. However, a long drought may have naturally suppressed bird populations prior to the rat eradication operation in 2011, potentially confounding the effects of temporary rat reduction and natural recovery. We therefore cannot unequivocally ascribe the population recovery to the temporary reduction of the rat population. We encourage robust monitoring of island biodiversity both before and after any management operation to better understand responses of endemic species to failed or successful operations.

Currently listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the Straw-headed Bulbul Pycnonotus zeylanicus is being driven towards extinction throughout most of its range by unregulated illegal trade supplying the demand for songbirds. We conducted surveys of bird markets in North and West Kalimantan, and Central, West and East Java between July 2014 and June 2015, and observed a total of 71 Straw-headed Bulbuls in 11 markets in eight cities. Comparing our data with the literature, we found that as numbers in markets are decreasing, prices are increasing to over 20 times the prices recorded in 1987, indicating that numbers in the wild are diminishing. This is corroborated by widespread extirpations throughout their range and reports from traders that Straw-headed Bulbuls are increasingly difficult to locate, while demand from consumers remains high. Concerted efforts from a variety of stakeholders are urgently needed to prevent the extinction of this species in the wild. We recommend that the Straw-headed Bulbul be included in Indonesia’s list of protected species, considered for uplisting to Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List and listed in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We also urge the Indonesian Government to effectively enforce existing laws, targeting the open bird markets to shut down the trade in this and other threatened species.

Demand for the ‘ivory’ casques of the Helmeted Hornbill Rhinoplax vigil appears to have risen very sharply, although the species is legally protected in every range state (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand) and it is on Appendix I of CITES. Seizure records and other sources indicate that the majority of hornbills are being killed in Indonesia on the islands of Borneo and Sumatra and smuggled to China where the casques are carved for commercial sale. Between March 2012 and August 2014 a minimum 2,170 heads and/or casques were seized from the illegal trade in Indonesia and China in identifiable enforcement actions. Seizures were made from poachers, smugglers, processing facilities and retailers (both physical shops and online traders). Thirteen seizures occurred in Indonesia in which no fewer than 1,117 specimens were confiscated. In China, 18 seizures resulted in the confiscation of 1,053 specimens. Anecdotal evidence suggests the species is now rare in Indonesia but that demand, reflected in the high prices involved, will not soon abate. Efforts are therefore urgently needed to end this illegal trade, which is controlled by organised crime with interests in other wildlife products, to advertise the penalties for transgressors, and to create awareness of the law and the plight of the species among potential consumers.

The identification of threats to migratory species of conservation concern and the relevance of protected areas for them is often biased towards breeding areas. The European Roller Coracias garrulus is a long-distance migrant experiencing a pronounced decline throughout its breeding range, which has been attributed to the degradation of open agricultural habitats. However, its conservation status in non-breeding areas in Africa remains unstudied. Land cover change is a major threat affecting migratory birds in their wintering grounds, therefore identifying important areas for their protection at this stage is a priority. Here we used occurrence data during the wintering season and ecological niche models to identify key land cover and areas used by Rollers in Africa. First, we used 33 filtered locations from six satellite-tracked birds breeding in Spain to describe suitable wintering areas for the Spanish population (westernmost part of the Eurasian breeding range). We also used 1,167 occurrence data in southern Africa from open-access databases and bird atlases to characterise the overall wintering range of the species. The Spanish population occupied a relatively small area in the north-western part of southern Africa, and a narrow range of land covers. Open grassland, less steep areas and those with sparse tree cover are correlated with suitability. In all, 18.06% of suitable wintering areas for the Spanish population overlapped with protected areas. The overall population of Rollers occupied a wider area and range of land cover. Tree cover was the most important variable affecting suitability, with areas without tree cover being the least suitable. We found that 9.58% of suitable wintering areas for the overall population overlapped with protected areas. Our results suggest that Rollers from different origins (breeding populations) use separate, but overlapping, wintering areas and may have different habitat requirements, and therefore, population-specific conservation strategies in these areas might be needed to fully protect the species.

Albatrosses (Diomedeidae) and large petrels (Macronectes and Procellaria spp.) are among the world’s most rapidly declining birds. Some of the most endangered species, Amsterdam Albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis, Indian Yellow-nosed Albatross Thalassarche carteri and Sooty Albatross Phoebetria fusca, are at risk from recurrent avian cholera outbreaks. Yet little is known about the overall impact of disease in this group. We compiled all available information on pathogens described in albatrosses and large petrel species listed under the Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels (ACAP) (n = 31). Available reports (n = 53) comprise nearly 60% of ACAP species (18/31). However, only 38% of them focus on threatened species (20/53), and 43% solely report macroparasite findings (23/53). Black-browed Albatross Thalassarche melanophrys (Near Threatened) and Southern Giant Petrel Macronectes giganteus (Least Concern) are the two species with higher number of publications (29/53, 55% of all papers). Conversely, seven species on the IUCN Red List have three papers or less each. Most existing research has resulted from disease or mortality investigations and baseline studies (28 and 32%, respectively). Pathogens reported in the subset of ACAP species, included bacteria in seven species (39%), viruses in five (28%), protozoa in four (22%), helminths in nine (50%), ectoparasites in 13 (72%) and fungi in one species (5%). Avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, appears as the most severe threat to ACAP species. Infections by poxvirus are the most common viral finding, yet entail lower population level impact. Few serosurveys report pathogen exposure in these species, but add valuable baseline information. There are numerous obvious gaps in species and geographical coverage and likely under-reporting due to remoteness, accessibility and sporadic monitoring. This insufficient knowledge may be hampering effective protection and management of populations at risk. Attention to species currently affected by avian cholera is of utmost priority.

BirdLife International´s Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBA) Programme has identified, documented and mapped over 13,000 sites of international importance for birds. IBAs have been influential with governments, multilateral agreements, businesses and others in: (1) informing governments’ efforts to expand protected area networks (in particular to meet their commitments through the Convention on Biological Diversity); (2) supporting the identification of Ecologically or Biologically Significant Areas (EBSAs) in the marine realm, (3) identifying Wetlands of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention; (4) identifying sites of importance for species under the Convention on Migratory Species and its sister agreements; (5) identifying Special Protected Areas under the EU Birds Directive; (6) applying the environmental safeguards of international finance institutions such as the International Finance Corporation; (7) supporting the private sector to manage environmental risk in its operations; and (8) helping donor organisations like the Critical Ecosystems Partnership Fund (CEPF) to prioritise investment in site-based conservation. The identification of IBAs (and IBAs in Danger: the most threatened of these) has also triggered conservation and management actions at site level, most notably by civil society organisations and local conservation groups. IBA data have therefore been widely used by stakeholders at different levels to help conserve a network of sites essential to maintaining the populations and habitats of birds as well as other biodiversity. The experience of IBA identification and conservation is shaping the design and implementation of the recently launched Key Biodiversity Areas (KBA) Partnership and programme, as IBAs form a core part of the KBA network.

Blakiston's Fish-owl Bubo blakistoni is classified as ‘Endangered’ by IUCN; this species is associated with riparian old-growth forests in north-east Asia, a landscape threatened by a variety of impacts (e.g. logging, agricultural development, human settlement). We examined a 20,213 km2 study area in Primorye, Russia, and assessed the ability of the protected area network to conserve Blakiston's Fish-owls by analysing resource selection of radio-marked individuals. Based on resource selection functions, we predicted that 60–65 Blakiston's fish-owl home ranges could occur within the study area. We found that the protected area network within our study area contained only 19% of optimal Blakiston's fish-owl habitat and contained only eight potential home ranges (five of these within a single protected area—Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Reserve). We also found that 43% of optimal Blakiston's Fish-owl habitat was within current logging leases; lands capable of supporting habitat equivalent to 24 home ranges. The remaining optimal habitat (38%) was on federal land and potentially contained 28–33 Blakiston's Fish-owl home ranges. The current protected area network, by itself, is not sufficient to conserve the species because relatively few home ranges are actually protected. Therefore, outside of protected areas, we recommend protecting specific locations within potential home ranges that likely contain suitable nest and foraging sites, maintaining integrity of riparian areas, modifying road construction methods, and closing old and unused logging roads to reduce anthropogenic disturbance to the owls and the landscape.

The Chocó-Tumbesian region of western Ecuador is one of the 25 global biodiversity hotspots harbouring high numbers of endemic species, which are heavily threatened by habitat loss and fragmentation. Moreover, ongoing climate change in the tropics drives species uphill as lower-lying areas are becoming constantly drier. Such upslope movement can pose major challenges for less mobile species, such as understorey birds which are confined to mature forests and unable to cross habitat gaps. Consequently, these species are threatened by a combination of upslope range shifts and forest fragmentation. In our study, we investigated population numbers and habitat requirements of the Ecuadorian Tapaculo Scytalopus robbinsi, which is endemic to the premontane cloud forests of south-western Ecuador. Comparing the microhabitat structure within territories with control sites revealed that Ecuadorian Tapaculos prefer old secondary forests. Moreover, connectivity between forest fragments was the strongest predictor of the presence of territories within them. We estimated the mean upslope shift of the distribution range as 100 m per decade and developed a model of habitat availability for the revised range. Extrapolating the number of territories from the study area to the distributional range of the Ecuadorian Tapaculo showed that the global population size is smaller than previously assumed. Our results suggest that the Ecuadorian Tapaculo is strongly affected by forest loss and degradation. Therefore, to prevent a continuing decline in population numbers or even extinction, conservation measures focusing on restoring connectivity between fragments and increasing habitat quality and quantity for the remaining populations need to be prioritised.

The Yellow Sea region is of high global importance for waterbird populations, but recent systematic bird count data enabling identification of the most important sites are relatively sparse for some areas. Surveys of waterbirds at three sites on the coast of southern Jiangsu Province, China, in 2014 and 2015 produced peak counts of international importance for 24 species, including seven globally threatened and six Near Threatened species. The area is of particular global importance for the ‘Critically Endangered’ Spoon-billed Sandpiper Calidris pygmaea (peak count across all three study sites: 62 in spring [2015] and 225 in autumn [2014] and ‘Endangered’ Spotted Greenshank Tringa guttifer (peak count across all three study sites: 210 in spring [2014] and 1,110 in autumn [2015]). The southern Jiangsu coast is therefore currently the most important migratory stopover area in the world, in both spring and autumn, for both species. Several serious and acute threats to waterbirds were recorded at these study sites. Paramount is the threat of large-scale land claim which would completely destroy intertidal mudflats of critical importance to waterbirds. Degradation of intertidal mudflat habitats through the spread of invasive Spartina, and mortality of waterbirds by entrapment in nets or deliberate poisoning are also real and present serious threats here. Collisions with, and displacement by, wind turbines and other structures, and industrial chemical pollution may represent additional potential threats. We recommend the rapid establishment of effective protected areas for waterbirds in the study area, maintaining large areas of open intertidal mudflat, and the urgent removal of all serious threats currently faced by waterbirds here.

Human populations in Africa are growing at a faster rate than in any other region; this growth will exert increasing pressures on the continent’s wildlife resources and declines in wildlife are already being observed. Species occupying higher trophic levels may be amongst the most useful indicators of this pressure and raptorial birds have already proven to be particularly useful in highlighting problems with their environment. The Martial Eagle is an African endemic which is thought to be declining and was recently uplisted to globally Vulnerable, although data on population trends are almost entirely lacking. The Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP) 1 and 2 are citizen science projects that represent a rare opportunity, within an African context, to quantify population changes over a 20-year period. We use data from these surveys to explore changes in reporting rates for this species in South Africa between SABAP 1 (1987–1992) and SABAP 2 (2007–2012) at the scale of quarter-degree grid cells. Previous research suggests that such comparisons accurately reflect changes in breeding numbers for this species. We found an overall decline in reporting rates of c.60%, with more cells showing loss or declines (75%) than those showing colonisation or increases (25%). No differences in reporting rate change were found between provinces, suggesting a relative uniform decline across the country. There were, however, differences between biomes with declines recorded in all biomes apart from Albany Thicket, Succulent Karoo and Fynbos (south-western biomes). Declines differed inside and outside protected areas, with larger declines outside (64%) than inside (42%) protected areas, although even within large protected areas significant declines were observed. These results support the uplisting of the species’ conservation status and suggest that even within protected areas the species is not immune to the drivers of decline.

The Japanese Murrelet Synthliboramphus wumizusume is a rare, globally ‘Vulnerable’ seabird, endemic to Japan and South Korea. However, little is known of its at-sea distribution, habitat or threats. We conducted several years of at-sea surveys around Japan to model Japanese Murrelet density in relation to habitat parameters, and make spatial predictions to assess the adequacy of the current Japanese marine Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) network for the species. During a five-year period, 3,485 km of at-sea surveys recorded 3,161 Japanese Murrelets around four breeding locations. Maximum murrelet group size was 90 individuals with a mean group size of 2.9 ± 4.2 individuals. Models of Japanese Murrelet at-sea density around the two largest breeding locations predicted that almost all murrelets occur within 30 km of the breeding colony and most within 10 km. Murrelets were predicted closer to the colony in May than in April and closer to the colony at a neritic colony than at an offshore island colony. Additionally, murrelets breeding on an offshore island colony also commuted to mainland neritic habitat for foraging. The marine habitat used by Japanese Murrelets differed between each of the four surveyed colonies, however oceanographic variables offered little explanatory power in models. Models with colony, month and year generated four foraging radii (9–39 km wide) containing murrelet densities of > 0.5 birds/km2. Using these radii the Japanese marine IBA network was found to capture between 95% and 25% of Japanese Murrelet at-sea habitat while breeding and appears appropriately configured to protect near-colony murrelet distributions. Given the range of marine habitats that breeding murrelets inhabit, our simple models offer an applicable method for predicting to unsampled colonies and generating ecologically-informed seaward extension radii. However, data on colony populations and further at-sea surveys are necessary to refine models and improve predictions.