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Surviving Elections: Election Violence, Incumbent Victory and Post-Election Repercussions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 December 2016

Emilie M. Hafner-Burton ,
Susan D. Hyde  and
Ryan S. Jablonski
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Abstract

It is often assumed that government-sponsored election violence increases the probability that incumbent leaders remain in power. Using cross-national data, this article shows that election violence increases the probability of incumbent victory, but can generate risky post-election dynamics. These differences in the consequences of election violence reflect changes in the strategic setting over the course of the election cycle. In the pre-election period, anti-incumbent collective action tends to be focused on the election itself, either through voter mobilization or opposition-organized election boycotts. In the post-election period, by contrast, when a favorable electoral outcome is no longer a possibility, anti-government collective action more often takes the form of mass political protest, which in turn can lead to costly repercussions for incumbent leaders.

Keywords

Electoral violenceelection protestselection boycotts
Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 48 , Issue 2 , April 2018 , pp. 459 - 488
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2016 

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Footnotes

*

School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego (email: ehafner@ucsd.edu); Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley (email: susanhyde@berkeley.edu); Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science (email: r.s.jablonski@lse.ac.uk). Replication data is available at https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/BJPolS and online appendices are available at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1017/S000712341600020X.

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