Last updated 09/07/24: Online ordering is currently unavailable due to technical issues. We apologise for any delays responding to customers while we resolve this. For further updates please visit our website: https://www.cambridge.org/news-and-insights/technical-incident
We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 07 November 2014
The purpose of this article is to make available in somewhat more detailed form than has heretofore appeared, the results of a population projection recently made by Mr. M. C. MacLean and the present writer and to discuss some of the more important implications of the indicated changes in the Canadian population structure.
The Basis of Projection. In making the projection specific, birthrates were computed by relating the average number of births over the six years 1931-6 to the estimated number of survivors of the 1931 adult female population at the mid-point of that period. The projection was carried forward by five-year intervals for the two sexes separately using birth-rates so computed and mortality rates derived from the official all-Canada life tables for 1931. These rates were held constant throughout and no account was taken of the possible future effects of immigration and emigration or of war.
The reason tor this procedure as well as tor the selection oi the above-mentioned birth- and death-rates may be stated briefly. During the post-war decade (1921-31) the crude birth-rate in Canada as reflected by the ratio of children 0-4 to women 15-44 experienced a quite unusual and drastic decline. It fell by as much as 14.4 per cent in the ten-year period as compared with an average drop of approximately 5 per cent per decade in the preceding fifty years. About half of the decline in the last intercensal decade may be attributed to postponed marriages. A further drastic decline was registered during the depression years which undoubtedly resulted in many more postponed marriages. It seemed reasonable, therefore, to regard the existing low rates as somewhat abnormal and cyclical in character, and to anticipate at least a moderate though perhaps temporary revival as soon as economic conditions permitted the resumption of marriages on anything approaching a normal level. At the same time experience in Canada, as well as in other countries, suggests that the underlying trend in Canadian birthrates is likely to be downward for some time to come. Instead of attempting corrections for trend and cyclical movements which at best would involve a good deal of guess-work, it was decided to use throughout the low rates prevailing during the first part of the present decade (1931-6) on the assumption that their use would offset in some measure the neglect of the long-term downward trend.
1 Hurd, W. Burton, “The Decline in the Canadian Birth-rate” (Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, vol. III, Feb., 1937).Google Scholar
2 MacLean, M. C., Analysis of the Stages in the Growth of Population in Canada (Ottawa, Dominion Bureau of Statistics, 1935).Google Scholar
3 The reader should bear in mind that the ensuing discussion deals with Canada as a whole and is cautioned against assuming that population changes in all parts of the country will be identical with those for the Dominion at large. Birth-rates vary considerably as between different sections of the country. Moreover, in the past there has been a great deal of internal migration both from rural to urban areas and from province to province and there are grounds for anticipating similar movements in the future. It is for the latter reason that projections were not worked out by geographical or administrative divisions.
4 To deal at any length with the economic consequences of declining rates of population growth would involve reviewing an increasing volume of literature on the subject which goes beyond the purpose of the present article. A few of the more recent contributions in the field are listed for the convenience of interested readers: Hansen, Alvin H., “Progress and Declining Population” (American Economic Review, 03, 1939)Google Scholar; Chase, Stuart, “Population Going Down” (The Atlantic, Feb., 1939)Google Scholar; Thompson, Warren S. and Whelpton, P. K., “Population Trend Foreshadows a New Era” (New York Times, Sunday, 03 18, 1934)Google Scholar; Spengler, Joseph J., “Population Growth, Consumer Demand and Business Profits” (Harvard Business Review, Jan., 1934)Google Scholar; P. K. Whelpton, “Increase and Distribution of Elders in our Population,” and Spengler, J. J., “The Social and Economic Consequences of Cessation in Population Growth” (Proceedings of the International Congress for Studies Regarding Population Problems, Rome, 1932)Google Scholar; Cannan, E., “The Changed Outlook in Regard to Population” (Economic Journal, Dec., 1931).CrossRefGoogle Scholar See also, Facteurs et Conséquences de l'Evolution Démographique (Congrès International de la Population, vol. VII, Paris, 1937).Google Scholar
