The most significant economic events of the past twenty years in the world at large, were the boom, the depression, the re-armament, and the war, and the lesson of this precarious period, more than of any other perhaps, is the necessity of trying to look ahead. The issue is not whether we should make forecasts or avoid forecasts. It is whether we should look ahead in a haphazard, unorganized way, or whether we should try to systematize our outlook, appraising current and foreseeable trends as part of a broader programme for maintaining high employment and sustained levels of income. Part of the federal government programme devoted to these ends, has been to set up a research unit which among other jobs, is attempting to develop a technique of forecasting suited to Canadian conditions, and which is trying to extend this as a basis for consideration of policy. This paper is a report on the progress of this forecasting unit: an attempt to state its objectives, the stage of development of its procedures, and its difficulties as they are now seen.

These remarks should be prefaced by reference to an informal committee on forecasting, established in Ottawa by representatives of several federal departments. Much of the forecasting work is reviewed by that committee, and the content of this paper is much affected by its work. But this paper expresses a personal view of the matter, for which that committee would probably be unwilling to take much responsibility.