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The 2007 French Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 March 2010

Bertrand Lemennicier ,
Hororine Lescieux-Katir  and
Bernard Grofman
Bertrand Lemennicier*
Affiliation:
University of Paris II
Hororine Lescieux-Katir*
Affiliation:
University of Paris II
Bernard Grofman*
Affiliation:
University of California, Irvine
*
Bertrand Lemennicier, Department of Economics and Institut de Recherches sur la Gouvernance et l'Économie des Institutions (IRGEI), University of Paris, II, Pantheon-Assas, 1 Rue d'Ulm, Paris, France, 75231, bertrand.lemennicier@gmail.com.
Honorine Lescieux-Katir, Department of Economics and Institut de Recherches sur la Gouvernance et l'Économie des Institutions (IRGEI), University of Paris, II, Pantheon-Assas, 1 Rue d'Ulm, Paris, France, 752
Bernard Grofman, Department of Political Science and Center for the Study of Democracy, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA. 92697, bgrofman@uci.edu.
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Abstract

Abstract. We make use of a novel forecasting technique based on the Hotelling-Downs spatial framework to project vote outcomes in the second round of the two-round French presidential election system. In doing so we take advantage of the high degree of bimodality in the distribution of voter preferences to predict which candidates will make it into the second round. While our principal focus is on the 2007 election, we also look at the seven previous presidential elections in the French Fifth Republic, from 1965 through 2002.

Résumé. Pour prédire le résultat du deuxième tour de scrutin des élections présidentielles françaises de 2007, nous avons fait appel à une nouvelle technique fondée sur le modèle spatial de Hotelling-Downs. En procédant ainsi, nous avons pris en compte le haut degré de bimodalité de la distribution des préférences pour pronostiquer lequel des deux candidats remporterait la victoire. Bien que nous ayons surtout centré notre attention sur l'élection présidentielle de 2007, nous avons aussi examiné les sept élections présidentielles antérieures de la Cinquième République, tenues de 1965 à 2002, afin de tester notre méthode et prédire ex ante les résultats de 2007.

Type
Symposium: Electoral Forecasting and the 2007 French Presidential Elections
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 43 , Issue 1 , March 2010 , pp. 137 - 161
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2010

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