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Regionalism, Cabinet Stability and Canada's Electoral System: The Effect of District Magnitude

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2009

Neil Sutherland
Neil Sutherland
Affiliation:
Ottawa
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Abstract

Previous literature has assumed that there is a trade-off between cabinet stability, by means of a majority manufactured by a single-seat plurality system, and the alleviation of regional conflict, by means of a more proportional electoral system. This study demonstrates that no such tradeoff exists. The objective of this study is to find an alternative electoral system which satisfies both the criteria of majority government and multiregional representation. In a quasi-experiment, an electoral system with a district magnitude of two (M2) satisfies both of the above criteria. The results of the study show that a district magnitude of two can provide a large diffuse party with a majority of seats for the same amount of voter support as the present plurality system. In addition, M2 rewards this large diffuse party with seats necessary to form a minority government at a much lower level of voter support than does the existing system. Thus, M2 solves the problem of underrepresentation of regions in the government party, and is at the same time even more advantageous to a large diffuse party than is the present electoral system. If the argument of this study is correct, beneficiaries of the existing system should not be averse to implementing it.

Résumé

La littérature antérieure présumait l'existence d'un échange entre d'une part la stabilité d'un cabinet, par l'entremise d'un système majoritaire uninominal à un tour favorisant la création d'une forte majorité, et d'autre part l'apaisement des conflits régionaux, par le biais d'un système électoral proportionnel. Cette étude démontre que de tels échanges n'existent pas. L'objectif de cette étude était de trouver un système électoral alternatif qui pourrait satisfaire à la fois le critère de la majorité parlementaire relative et celui de la représentation multirégionale. Au cours d'une simulation, un système électoral doté d'une circonscription à deux sièges a respecté les deux critères énumérés auparavant. Les résultats de l'étude montrent qu'une circonscription à deux sièges peut permettre à un grand parti d'obtenir une majorité des sièges avec une même appui électoral que dans le système fondé sur une pluralité présentement en vigueur. De plus, la circonscription à deux sièges récompense ce grand parti en offrant le nombre de sièges nécessaires pour former un gouvernement minoritaire avec un appui moins élevé de l'électorat que ne le requiert le système présentement en vigueur. Par conséquent, la circonscription à deux sièges résoud le problème de la sous-représentation des régions dans le parti au pouvoir et est, par le fait même, plus avantageuse pour un grand parti que ne l'est le système électoral actuel. Si l'argumentation de cette étude est juste, les bénéficiares du système présentement en place ne devraient pas s'opposer à une telle réforme.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 29 , Issue 3 , September 1996 , pp. 497 - 520
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 1996

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References

1 Stevenson, Garth, Unfulfilled Union: Canadian Federalism and National Unity (Toronto: Gage, 1989)Google Scholar. Other central government institutions with a role in regional representation are the cabinet and the parties. See, for example, Bakvis, Herman, ed., Representation, Integration and Political Parties in Canada, Research Study for the Royal Commission on Electoral Reform and Party Financing (Ottawa: Supply and Services Canada, 1991)Google Scholar; Bakvis, Herman, Regional Ministers: Power and Influence in the Canadian Cabinet (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1991)Google Scholar; and Matheson, William A., The Prime Minister and Cabinet (Toronto: Methuen, 1976).Google Scholar

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4 Cairns, “The Electoral System,” 56, 57, and Cairns, Alan, “The Strong Case for Modest Electoral Reform in Canada,” paper delivered to the Harvard University Seminar on Canadian-United States Relations, September 25, 1979, 8.Google Scholar

5 For a discussion of stable systems that use proportional representation and have coalition governments, see Lijphart, Arendt, Democracies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1984), 157CrossRefGoogle Scholar; for a discussion of different ways of measuring cabinet durability, see Budge, Ian and Keman, Hans, Parties and Democracy: Coalition Formation and Government Functioning in Twenty States (Oxford: Oxford University Press), 1990.Google Scholar

6 A fairly direct comparison between the effects of district magnitude and geographical distribution of partisan support on electoral outcomes in Canada is possible using the Rae-Taylor fractionalization index, the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index, Laasko and Taagepera's definition of the “effective” number of parties and Rein Taagepera's formula for the relationship between district magnitude and number of effective parties (see Rae, Douglas, The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws [New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971], 139, 117–18)Google Scholar. Rae, defines “fractionalization” in “A Note on the Fractionalization of Some European Party Systems,” Comparative Political Studies 1 (1968), 414Google Scholar. Laasko, Markku and Taagepera, Rein, “Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to Western Europe,” Comparative Political Studies 12 (1979), 3–27Google Scholar, and Taagepera, Rein, “The Effect of District Magnitude and Properties of Two-Seat Districts,” in Lijphart, Arendt and Grofman, Bernard, eds., Choosing an Electoral System: Issues and Alternatives (New York: Praeger, 1984), 97.Google Scholar

7 Cairns, “The Electoral System,” 55.

8 Johnston, Richard and Ballantyne, Janet, “Geography and the Electoral System,” this Journal 10 (1977), 861Google Scholar. Edward Tufte states the same thing in more general terms when he argues that the more diffuse support is for a large party, the larger the swing ratio (swing ratio refers to the rate of translation of votes into seats) in “The Relation between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems,” American Political Science Review 67 (1973), 547.

9 Sources of data: Blake, Donald, “Canadian Census and Federal Election Data, 1908–1968,” University of British Columbia data library; Howard Scarrow, Canada Votes (New Orleans: Hanser Press, 1963)Google Scholar; Canada, Chief Electoral Officer, Report of the 1963 Election and Report of the 1965 Election; and Canada, Department of Mines and Technical Surveys, Surveys and Mapping Branch, Electoral District Maps (Ottawa, 1953).Google Scholar

10 Cairns, “The Electoral System,” 57.

11 The effect of government and opposition size on the workability of the parliamentary system is a tendency, and not a critical mass, and is only one factor affecting government solidarity and effective opposition.

12 Rein Taagepera has studied hypothetical results of British elections using different district magnitudes and electoral formulae (see Taagepera, Rein and Shugart, Matthew, Seats and Votes [New Haven: Yale University Press, 1989]).Google Scholar

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14 Irvine, Willian, Does Canada Need a New Electoral System (Kingston: Institute of Intergovernmental Relations, 1979)Google Scholar, and Task Force on Canadian Unity, A Future Together (Ottawa: Ministry of Supply and Services, 1979), 1046–1106.Google Scholar