Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-g5fl4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-26T19:30:49.417Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Methodology for Estimating Hospital Bed Need in Manitoba in 2020

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 March 2010

Robert B. Tate ,
Leonard MacWilliam  and
Gregory S. Finlayson
Robert B. Tate*
Affiliation:
Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba
Leonard MacWilliam
Affiliation:
Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba
Gregory S. Finlayson
Affiliation:
Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba
*
Requests for offprints should be sent to: / Les demandes de tirés-à-part doivent être addressées à : Robert B. Tate, Ph.D., Department of Community Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba, 770 Bannatyne Avenue, Suite T148, Winnipeg, MB R3E 0W3. (tate@ms.umanitoba.ca)
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors expected to affect bed use in the future, and how to account for these factors. The objective of this paper is to describe these methodological considerations, how decisions were made, and steps taken in our approach to this problem. The actual projections and their implications are the subject of another contribution in this issue of the journal (Finlayson, Stewart, Tate, MacWilliam & Roos, 2005).

Résumé

Une équipe de chercheurs du Manitoba Centre for Health Policy de l'université du Manitoba ont été amenés à prévoir le nombre de lits d'hôpitaux nécessaires aux soins de courte durée pour les habitants de la province du Manitoba en 2020. Parmi les considérations méthodologiques relatives à cette demande, on compte l'identification des facteurs pouvant éventuellement influencer l'utilisation des lits ainsi que la manière de justifier ces facteurs. L'objectif de cet article est de décrire ces considérations méthodologiques, la manière dont les décisions ont été prises et les étapes suivies dans le cadre de notre approche du problème. Les prévisions existantes et leurs répercussions font l'objet d'une autre contribution à ce numéro de la revue (Finlayson, Stewart, Tate, MacWilliam et Roos, 2005).

Keywords

agingforecastinghospital bedsvieillissementprévisionslits d'hôpitaux
Type
Articles
Information
Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement , Volume 24 , Issue S1: Health and Health Care Use Among Older Adults: Using Population-Based Information Systems to Inform Policy in Manitoba , Spring/Printemps 2005 , pp. 141 - 151
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Association on Gerontology 2005

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Black, C., Roos, N.P., & Burchill, C. (1993). Utilisation of hospital resources. Volume 1: Key findings. Winnipeg: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation.Google Scholar
Black, C., Roos, N.P., Fransoo, R., & Martens, P. (1999). Comparative indicators of population health and health use for Manitoba's regional health authorities. Winnipeg: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation.Google Scholar
Brownell, M.D., Roos, N.P., & Burchill, C.A. (1999). Monitoring the Winnipeg hospital system: 1990/91 through 1996/97. Winnipeg: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation.Google Scholar
Carrière, Y. (2000). The impact of population aging and hospital days: Will there be a problem?. In Gee, E.M. & Gutman, G.M. (Eds.), The overselling of population aging: Apocalyptic demography, intergenerational challenges, and social policy. Toronto, ON: Oxford University Press, 26–44.Google Scholar
Finlayson, G., Stewart, D.K., Tate, R.B., MacWilliam, L., & Roos, N.P. (2005). Anticipating change: How many acute care hospital beds will Manitoba need in 2020? Canadian Journal on Aging, 25(Suppl. 1), 133–140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LeTouze, D. (1984). Hospital bed planning in Canada: A survey analysis. International Journal of Health Services, 14(1), 105–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manitoba Bureau of Statistics. (2000). Manitoba health regions population projections June 1, 1998–June 1, 2025. Winnipeg: Government of Manitoba.Google Scholar
Martens, P.J., Fransoo, R., The Need to Know Team, Burland, E., Jebamani, L., Burchill, C., Black, C., Dik, N., MacWilliam, L., Derksen, S., Walld, R., Steinbach, C., & Dahl, M. (2003). The Manitoba RHA indicators atlas: Population-based comparisons of health and health care use. Winnipeg: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy.Google Scholar
Mouza, A.M. (2002). Estimation of the total number of hospital admissions and bed requirements for 2011: The case for Greece. Health Services Management Research, 15(3), 186–192.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Petersen, S.O. (1999). NISPLAN: Projecting hospital beds and hospital stays. Studies in Health Technology and Informatics, 68, 591–593.Google ScholarPubMed
Postma, M.J., Ruwaard, D., & Jager, H.C. Jr. (1995). Projecting utilisation of hospital in-patient days in the Netherlands: A time-series analysis. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, 12, 185–202.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Roos, N.P., Shapiro, E., Bond, R., Black, C., Finlayson, G., Newburn-Cook, C., MacWilliam, L., Steinbach, C., Yogendran, M., & Walld, R. (2001). Changes in health and health care use of Manitobans, 1985–1998. Winnipeg: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy.Google Scholar
Rosenberg, M.W., & James, A.M. (2000). Medical services utilisation patterns by seniors. Canadian Journal on Aging, 19(Suppl. 1), 125–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stewart, D.K., Black, C.D., Martens, P.J., Peterson, S., & Friesen, D. (2000). Assessing the performance of rural and northern hospitals in Manitoba: A first look. Winnipeg: Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation.Google Scholar
Walsh, D.C., & Bicknell, W.J. (1977). Forecasting the need for hospital beds: A quantitative methodology. Public Health Reports, 92(3), 199–210.Google ScholarPubMed
Wilmore, D.W., & Kehlet, H. (2001). Management of patients in fast track surgery. British Medical Journal, 322, 473–476.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed