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On the Limits of Economic Prediction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2024

Robert L. Heilbroner
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Extract

The uses of economics are many, as are also the methodologies by which its various purposes can be defended or elucidated. In this paper I shall confine my attention, however, to but one of its many aims—the predictive intent that constitutes a distinguishing characteristic of so much economic work. Lest I be accused of claiming that prediction is an integral part of all economics, let me explicitly point out that the discipline has taxonomic, structural, purely formal, normative, and still other aspects, none of which involves prediction, and all of which have their useful roles to play. Nonetheless, I do not think that most economists would disagree with my contention that a predictive purpose lies at the heart of much of economic science today, in particular when that science is used on behalf of policy.

Type
Research Article
Information
Diogenes , Volume 18 , Issue 70 , June 1970 , pp. 27 - 40
Copyright
Copyright © 1970 Fédération Internationale des Sociétés de Philosophie / International Federation of Philosophical Societies (FISP)

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Footnotes

*

The author is Professor of Economics at the Graduate Faculty of the New School for Social Research. He wishes to thank Adolph Lowe and Fritz Machlup for their criticism and assistance.

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