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XXXV. On the spread of epidemic plague through districts with scattered villages: with a statistical analysis1.

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

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It is well established that plague, once it has gained a foothold in a place, tends to recur every year at the same season and that the plague season varies in different places. It has been demonstrated that in Bombay City the periods between the epidemics are bridged over by cases of acute plague amongst the rats accompanied by a few cases in man. Knowing, then, the factors which determine the rise and fall of the epizootic amongst the rats, once the infection is present, we have a fairly complete conception of the seasonal prevalence of human plague in a city such as Bombay. In the case, however, of a large province, such as the Punjab, with scattered villages, the question of the annual recrudescence in the several villages is not so simply answered. For, it will be remembered that in the two Punjab villages of Dhand and Kasel, which were under close observation by the Commission for a whole year, no acute plague was found amongst either man or rats in the long interval between the epidemics. While this is so, a certain number of rats were caught alive, which, although apparently in good health, harboured living and virulent plague bacilli in chronic abscesses (see above, p. 335).

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1910

References

page 357 note 1 In the months for which no maps are given there was no plague in the district. The circles represent epidemics with less than five plague deaths.

page 364 note 1 It is possible that a rat epidemic might occur without a human epidemic. Owing to the intimate relation between men and rats in these villages, this is very unlikely: the conditions elsewhere are quite different.