Norovirus causes viral gastroenteritis, which is a major problem in health care. The disease causes death in elderly and seriously ill patients, and results in significant health costs each year. Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) reduce gastric acidity, which is an important protection against microorganisms. We hypothesised that treatment with PPIs increases the risk of contracting norovirus infection. This has not previously been studied. The study was a retrospective case–control study, in which 192 hospitalised patients positive for norovirus in Örebro County, Sweden, were identified as cases. For each case, a hospitalised patient who did not have the infection was selected as a control, and matched with respect to ward, gender, admission date and age. Details of exposure, i.e. treatment with PPIs, were retrieved from the patient records. Odds ratio (OR) with confidence intervals (CIs) and P-values were calculated using McNemar's test. There was a significantly increased risk of norovirus infection in patients treated with PPIs compared with patients without PPI treatment (OR 1·73, 95% CI 1·07–2·81; P = 0·02). PPIs appear to be a risk factor for norovirus infection, and our results motivate future studies to further examine this association.

Clonal changes of serotype 19A pneumococci have been appreciated in conjunction with growing prevalence of this serotype after implementation of the seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7). In the present study, we characterized serotype 19A pneumococci collected in Russia within a decade preceding the implementation of PCV vaccination and described their clonal evolution. We retrospectively analyzed non-invasive serotype 19A isolates collected in 2002–2013. All isolates were subjected to multilocus sequence typing, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, determination of macrolide resistance genotype, molecular detection of pilus islet (PI) carriage, sequencing of penicillin-binding protein (PBP) genes. A total of 49 serotype 19A isolates represented 25 sequence types, of which 14 were newly described. The majority of isolates were distributed among clonal complex (CC) 663 (28%), CC230 (25%), CC156, and CC320 (14% each). CC663 and CC156 dominated in 2003, but were replaced by CC230 and CC320 later on; CC320 was only evident starting 2010. All isolates of CC663 and CC156 carried PI1; CC320 possessed both PI1 and PI2. The overall rate of altered amino acids in penicillin-nonsusceptible isolates was 13·9%, 7·2%, and 8·7% for PBP1a, PBP2b, and PBP2x, respectively. Our findings demonstrate that the clonal structure of serotype 19A pneumococci may evolve without PCV pressure.

Several pathogens have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Whether this occurs with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is unclear. We assessed if tuberculosis disease increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients with tuberculosis index claims from a large de-identified database of ~15 million adults enrolled in a U.S. commercial insurance policy between 2008 and 2010. Tuberculosis patients were 1:1 matched to patients without tuberculosis claims using propensity scores. We compared the occurrence of index AMI claims between the tuberculosis and non-tuberculosis cohorts using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models. Data on 2026 patients with tuberculosis and 2026 propensity-matched patients without tuberculosis were included. AMI was more frequent in the tuberculosis cohort compared with the non-tuberculosis cohort, 67 (3·3%) vs. 32 (1·6%) AMI cases, respectively, P < 0·01. Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1·98, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1·3–3·0). The results were similar when the analysis was restricted to pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted HR 2·43, 95% CI 1·5–4·1). Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI. CVD risk assessment should be considered in tuberculosis patients. Mechanistic studies of tuberculosis and CVD are warranted.

An upsurge of fever cases of unknown origin, but resembling dengue and leptospirosis was reported in Havelock, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, an important tourism spot, during May 2014. Investigations were carried out to determine the aetiology, and to describe the epidemiology of the outbreak. The data on fever cases attending Primary Health Centre (PHC), Havelock showed that the average number of cases reporting per week over the last 2 years was 46·1 (95% confidence interval 19·4–72·9). A total of 27 (43·5%) patients out of the 62 suspected cases were diagnosed as having DENV infection based on a positive enzyme immunoassay or reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction. The overall attack rate was 9·4 cases/1000 population and it ranged between 2·8 and 18·8/1000 in different villages. The nucleotide sequencing showed that the virus responsible was DENV-3. DENV-3 was first detected in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands in 2013 among wharf workers in Port Blair and within a year it has spread to Havelock Island which is separated from South Andaman by 36 nautical miles.

Phenomenological and mechanistic models are widely used to assist resource planning for pandemics and emerging infections. We conducted a systematic review, to compare methods and outputs of published phenomenological and mechanistic modelling studies pertaining to the 2013–2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemics in four West African countries – Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Nigeria. We searched Pubmed, Embase and Scopus databases for relevant English language publications up to December 2015. Of the 874 articles identified, 41 met our inclusion criteria. We evaluated these selected studies based on: the sources of the case data used, and modelling approaches, compartments used, population mixing assumptions, model fitting and calibration approaches, sensitivity analysis used and data bias considerations. We synthesised results of the estimated epidemiological parameters: basic reproductive number (R0), serial interval, latent period, infectious period and case fatality rate, and examined their relationships. The median of the estimated mean R0 values were between 1·30 and 1·84 in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea. Much higher R0 value of 9·01 was described for Nigeria. We investigated several issues with uncertainty around EVD modes of transmission, and unknown observation biases from early reported case data. We found that epidemic models offered R0 mean estimates which are country-specific, but these estimates are not associating with the use of several key disease parameters within the plausible ranges. We find simple models generally yielded similar estimates of R0 compared with more complex models. Models that accounted for data uncertainty issues have offered a higher case forecast compared with actual case observation. Simple model which offers transparency to public health policy makers could play a critical role for advising rapid policy decisions under an epidemic emergency.

Japan has been free from rabies since 1958. A strict import regimen has been adopted since 2004 consisting of identification of an animal with microchip, two-time rabies vaccination, neutralizing antibody titration test and a waiting period of 180 days. The present study aims to quantitatively assess the risk of rabies introduction into Japan through the international importation of dogs and cats and hence provide evidence-based recommendations to strengthen the current rabies prevention system. A stochastic scenario tree model was developed and simulations were run using @RISK. The probability of infection in a single dog or cat imported into Japan is estimated to be 2·16 × 10−9 [90% prediction interval (PI) 6·65 × 10−11–6·48 × 10−9]. The number of years until the introduction of a rabies case is estimated to be 49 444 (90% PI 19 170–94 641) years. The current import regimen is effective in maintaining the very low risk of rabies introduction into Japan and responding to future changes including increases in import level and rabies prevalence in the world. However, non-compliance or smuggling activities could substantially increase the risk of rabies introduction. Therefore, policy amendment which could promote compliance is highly recommended. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the waiting period could be reduced to 90 days and the requirement for vaccination could be reduced to a single vaccination, but serological testing should not be stopped.