Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-08T12:29:38.242Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Populist radical right parties and mass polarization in the Netherlands

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 March 2017

Bruno Castanho Silva Open the ORCID record for Bruno Castanho Silva [Opens in a new window]
Bruno Castanho Silva*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary
*
*E-mail: paula-castanho_bruno@phd.ceu.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Radical parties have been found to succeed under conditions of mass polarization. It is argued that their message resonates better with voters at the extremes of an ideological spectrum. This paper investigates if the reverse also holds, meaning that radical parties may contribute to the polarization of the public. I test this claim in the Netherlands, a country that has experienced the rise of populist radical right parties since 2002, using a synthetic control model built with a pool of comparable countries and Eurobarometer survey data. Results show that, after the rise of Pim Fortuyn and Geert Wilders, the level of polarization among the Dutch public increased more than it otherwise would have. These findings contribute to understanding the connection between elite- and mass-level polarization, and the consequences of populist radical right parties’ emergence in Western Europe.

Keywords

populist radical right partiespolarizationsynthetic control methodDutch politics
Type
Research Article
Information
European Political Science Review , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , May 2018 , pp. 219 - 244
Copyright
© European Consortium for Political Research 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abadie, A. and Gardeazabal, J. (2003), ‘The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque country’, The American Economic Review 93(1): 113–132.Google Scholar
Abadie, A., Diamond, A. and Hainmueller, J. (2010), ‘Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program’, Journal of the American Statistical Association 105(490): 493–505.Google Scholar
Abadie, A., Diamond, A. and Hainmueller, J. (2011), ‘Synth: an R package for synthetic control methods in comparative case studies’, Journal of Statistical Software 42(13): 1–17.Google Scholar
Abadie, A., Diamond, A. and Hainmueller, J. (2015), ‘Comparative politics and the synthetic control method’, American Journal of Political Science 59(2): 495–510.Google Scholar
Abramowitz, A.I. and Saunders, K. L. (2008), ‘Is polarization a myth?’, The Journal of Politics 70(2): 542–555.Google Scholar
Adams, J., De Vries, C.E. and Leiter, D. (2012a), ‘Subconstituency reactions to elite depolarization in the Netherlands: an analysis of the Dutch public’s policy beliefs and partisan loyalties, 1986–98’, British Journal of Political Science 42: 81–105.Google Scholar
Adams, J., Green, J. and Milazzo, C. (2012b), ‘Who moves? Elite and mass-level depolarization in Britain, 1987–2001’, Electoral Studies 31(4): 643–655.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Akkerman, T. (2005), ‘Anti-immigration parties and the defence of liberal values: the exceptional case of the List Pim Fortuyn’, Journal of Political Ideologies 10(3): 337–354.Google Scholar
Akkerman, T. and de Lange, S. (2012), ‘Radical right parties in office: incumbency records and the electoral costs of governing’, Government and Opposition 47(4): 574–596.Google Scholar
Akkerman, T., de Lange, S.L. and Rooduijn, M. (eds) (2016), Radical Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe: Into the Mainstream?, New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Albertazzi, D. and Mueller, S. (2013), ‘Populism and liberal democracy: populists in government in Austria, Italy, Poland and Switzerland’, Government and Opposition 48(3): 343–371.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, A., Devleeschauwer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S. and Wacziarg, R. (2003), ‘Fractionalization’, Journal of Economic Growth 8: 155–194.Google Scholar
Ando, M. (2015), ‘Dreams of urbanization: quantitative case studies on the local impacts of nuclear power facilities using the synthetic control method’, Journal of Urban Economics 85: 68–85.Google Scholar
Andrews, J.T. and Money, J. (2009), ‘The spatial structure of party competition: party dispersion within a finite policy space’, British Journal of Political Science 39(4): 805–824.Google Scholar
Arzheimer, K. (2009), ‘Contextual factors and the extreme right vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002’, American Journal of Political Science 53(2): 259–275.Google Scholar
Bakker, R., de Vries, C., Edwards, E., Hooghe, L., Jolly, S., Marks, G., Polk, J., Rovny, J., Steenbergen, M. and Vachudova, M.A. (2015), ‘Measuring party positions in Europe: the Chapel Hill expert survey trend file, 1999-2010’, Party Politics 21(1): 143–152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bale, T. (2003), ‘Cinderella and her ugly sisters: the mainstream and extreme right in Europe’s bipolarising party systems’, West European Politics 26(3): 67–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benoit, K. and Laver, M. (2006), Party Policy in Modern Democracies, New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Berkhout, J., Sudulich, L. and Van der Brug, W. (2015), ‘The politicisation of immigration in the Netherlands’, in W. Van der Brug, G. D’Amato, J. Berkhout and D. Ruedin (eds), The Politicisation of Migration, New York: Routledge, pp. 97–118.Google Scholar
Brader, T., Tucker, J.A. and Duell, D. (2013), ‘Which parties can lead opinion? Experimental evidence on partisan cue taking in multiparty democracies’, Comparative Political Studies 46(11): 1485–1517.Google Scholar
Bustikova, L. (2014), ‘Revenge of the radical right’, Comparative Political Studies 47(12): 1738–1765.Google Scholar
Castles, F.G. and Mair, P. (1984), ‘Left-right political scales: some ‘expertâ’ judgements’, European Journal of Political Research 12(1): 73–88.Google Scholar
Dalton, R.J. (2008), ‘The quantity and the quality of party systems: party system polarization, its measurement, and its consequences’, Comparative Political Studies 41(7): 899–920.Google Scholar
de Koster, W., Achterberg, P., Van der Waal, J., Van Bohemen, S. and Kemmers, R. (2014), ‘Progressiveness and the new right: the electoral relevance of culturally progressive values in the Netherlands’, West European Politics 37(3): 584–604.Google Scholar
de Vries, C., Hakhverdian, A. and Lancee, B. (2013), ‘The dynamics of Voters’ left/right identification: the role of economic and cultural attitudes’, Political Science Research and Methods 1(2): 223–238.Google Scholar
DiMaggio, P., Evans, J. and Bryson, B. (1996), ‘Have American’s social attitudes become more polarized’, American Journal of Sociology 102(3): 690–755.Google Scholar
Döring, H. and Manow, P. (2012), Parliament and Government Composition Database (ParlGov): an infrastructure for empirical information on parties, elections and governments in modern democracies. Retrieved 29 November 2016 from http://www.parlgov.org.Google Scholar
Downey, D.J. and Huffman, M.L. (2001), ‘Attitudinal polarization and trimodal distributions: measurement problems and theoretical implications’, Social Science Quarterly 82(3): 494–505.Google Scholar
Downs, A. (1957), An Economic Theory of Democracy, New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Druckman, J.N., Peterson, E. and Slothuus, R. (2013), ‘How elite partisan polarization affects public opinion formation’, American Political Science Review 107(1): 57–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Esteban, J.-M. and Ray, D. (1994), ‘On the measurement of polarization’, Econometrica 62(4): 819–851.Google Scholar
Ezrow, L., Homola, J. and Tavits, M. (2014a), ‘When extremism pays: policy positions, voter certainty, and party support in postcommunist Europe’, The Journal of Politics 76(2): 535–547.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ezrow, L., Tavits, M. and Homola, J. (2014b), ‘Voter polarization, strength of partisanship, and support for extremist parties’, Comparative Political Studies 47(11): 1558–1583.Google Scholar
Fiorina, M.P., Abrams, S.A. and Pope, J.C. (2008), ‘Polarization in the American public: misconceptions and misreadings’, The Journal of Politics 700(2): 556–560.Google Scholar
Garand, J.C. (2010), ‘Income inequality, party polarization, and roll-call voting in the U.S. senate’, The Journal of Politics 72(4): 1109–1128.Google Scholar
Hansen, K.M. and Kosiara-Pedersen, K. (2015), How campaigns polarize the electorate: political polarization as an effect of the minimal effect theory within a multi-party system. Party Politics, https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068815593453.Google Scholar
Hetherington, M.J. (2001), ‘Resurgent mass partisanship: the role of elite polarization’, American Political Science Review 95(3): 619–631.Google Scholar
Huber, J. and Inglehart, R. (1995), ‘Expert interpretations of party space and party locations in 42 societies’, Party Politics 1: 73–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J.D., Kernell, G. and Leoni, E.L. (2005), ‘Institutional context, cognitive resources and party attachments across democracies’, Political Analysis 13: 365–386.Google Scholar
Iyengar, S., Sood, G. and Lelkes, Y. (2012), ‘Affect, not ideology: a social identity perspective on polarization’, Public Opinion Quarterly 76(3): 405–431.Google Scholar
Jacobson, G.C. (2010), ‘Perception, memory, and partisan polarization on the Iraq war’, Political Science Quarterly 125(1): 31–56.Google Scholar
Jensen, C. and Thomsen, J.P.F. (2011), ‘Can party competition amplify mass ideological polarization over public policy? The case of ethnic exclusionism in Denmark and Sweden’, Party Politics 19(5): 821–840.Google Scholar
Joanes, D.N. and Gill, C.A. (1998), ‘Comparing measures of sample skewness and kurtosis’, The Statistician 47(1): 183–189.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, H. and McGann, A. (1995), The Radical Right in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis, Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Koopmans, R. and Muis, J. (2009), ‘The rise of right-wing populist Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands: a discursive opportunity approach’, European Journal of Political Research 48(5): 642–664.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laakso, M. and Taagepera, R. (1979), ‘‘Effective’ number of parties: a measure with application to West Europe’, Comparative Political Studies 12(1): 3–27.Google Scholar
Lavine, H.G., Johnston, C.D. and Steenbergen, M.R. (2012), The Ambivalent Partisan: How Critical Loyalty Promotes Democracy, New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Levendusky, M.S. (2009), The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democratic and Conservatives Became Republicans, Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Liou, Y.-M. and Musgrave, P. (2014), ‘Refining the oil curse: country-level evidence from exogenous variations in resource income’, Comparative Political Studies 470(11): 1584–1610.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupia, A. (1994), ‘Shortcuts versus encyclopedias: information and voting behavior in California insurance reform elections’, American Political Science Review 88(1): 63–76.Google Scholar
Lupu, N. (2015), ‘Party polarization and mass partisanship: a comparative perspective’, Political Behavior 37: 331–356.Google Scholar
Marshall, M.G., Gurr, T.R. and Jaggers, K. (2016), Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2015: Dataset Users’ Manual, Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace.Google Scholar
Merrill, S. III and Adams, J. (2002), ‘Centrifugal incentives in multi-candidate elections’, Journal of Theoretical Politics 14(3): 275–300.Google Scholar
Mudde, C. (2007), Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mudde, C. (2013), ‘Three decades of populist radical right parties in Western Europe: so what?’, European Journal of Political Research 52(1): 1–19.Google Scholar
Mudde, C. (2014), ‘Fighting the system? Populist radical right parties and party system change’, Party Politics 20(2): 217–226.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholson, S.P. (2012), ‘Polarizing cues’, American Journal of Political Science 56(1): 52–66.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Oosterwaal, A. and Torenvlied, R. (2010), ‘Politics divided from society? Three explanations for trends in societal and political polarisation in the Netherlands’, West European Politics 33(2): 258–279.Google Scholar
Pellikaan, H., Van der Meer, T. and de Lange, S. (2003), ‘The road from a depoliticized to a centrifugal democracy’, Acta Politica 38(1): 23–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pellikaan, H., de Lange, S. and Van der Meer, T. (2007), ‘Fortuyn’s legacy: party system change in the Netherlands’, Comparative European Politics 5: 282–302.Google Scholar
Pennings, P. and Keman, H. (2003), ‘The Dutch parliamentary elections in 2002 and 2003: the rise and decline of the Fortuyn movement’, Acta Politica 38(1): 51–68.Google Scholar
Rooduijn, M., de Lange, S.L. and Van der Brug, W. (2014), ‘A populist zeitgeist? Programmatic contagion by populist parties in Western Europe’, Party Politics 20(4): 563–575.Google Scholar
Rooduijn, M., van der Brug, W. and de Lange, S.L. (2016), ‘Expressing or fuelling discontent? The relationship between populist voting and political discontent’, Electoral Studies 43: 32–40.Google Scholar
Ruedin, D. (2016), agrmt: calculate agreement or consensus in ordered rating scales. R package version 1.40.4. Retrieved 29 November 2016 from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=agrmt.Google Scholar
Sani, G. and Sartori, G. (1983), ‘Polarization, fragmentation and competition in western democracies’, in H. Daalder and P. Mair (eds), Western European Party Systems: Continuity & Change, London: Sage, pp. 307–340.Google Scholar
Schumacher, G. and Rooduijn, M. (2013), ‘Sympathy for the devil? Voting for populists in the 2006 and 2010 Dutch general elections’, Electoral Studies 32(1): 124–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solt, F. (2014), The Standardized World Income Inequality Database. Retrieved 29 November 2016 from http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/11992.Google Scholar
Sørensen, R.J. (2014), ‘Political competition, party polarization, and government performance’, Public Choice 161(3): 427–450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van der Brug, W. (2003), ‘How the LPF fuelled discontent: empirical tests of explanations of LPF support’, Acta Politica 38: 89–106.Google Scholar
Van Der Eijk, C. (2001), ‘Measuring agreement in ordered rating scales’, Quality and Quantity 35(3): 325–341.Google Scholar
Van Holsteyn, J.J.M. and Irwin, G.A. (2003), ‘Never a dull moment: Pim Fortuyn and the Dutch parliamentary election of 2002’, West European Politics 26(2): 41–66.Google Scholar
Van Kersbergen, K. and Krouwel, A. (2008), ‘A double-edged sword! The Dutch centre-right and the ‘foreigners issue’’, Journal of European Public Policy 15(3): 398–414.Google Scholar
Van Spanje, J. (2010), ‘Contagious parties: anti-immigration parties and their impact on other parties’ immigration stances in contemporary western Europe’, Party Politics 16(5): 563–586.Google Scholar
Vatter, A. (2016), ‘Switzerland on the road from a consociational to a centrifugal democracy?’, Swiss Political Science Review 22(1): 59–74.Google Scholar
Vossen, K. (2010), ‘Populism in the Netherlands after Fortuyn: Rita Verdonk and Geert Wilders compared’, Perspectives on European Politics and Society 11(1): 22–38.Google Scholar
Vossen, K. (2011), ‘Classifying wilders: the ideological development of Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom’, Politics 31(3): 179–189.Google Scholar
Zaller, J.R. (1992), The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaslove, A. (2004), ‘The dark side of European politics: unmasking the radical right’, Journal of European Integration 26(1): 61–81.Google Scholar
Zingher, J.N. and Flynn, M.E. (2016), From on high: the effect of elite polarization on mass attitudes and behaviors, 1972–2012. British Journal of Political Science, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123415000514.Google Scholar