Hostname: page-component-84b7d79bbc-7nlkj Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-26T22:29:36.290Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Partisans like any other? How populist supporters assess the economy when their party is in office

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 July 2023

Frédéric Gonthier*
Affiliation:
Sciences Po Grenoble, School of Political Studies, University of Grenoble Alpes, Pacte-CNRS, France

Abstract

Populist supporters have been found to take cues from populist incumbents. Yet, little is known about how they incorporate party cues in their political beliefs when populists are in office. This research note argues that (1) citizens who identify with populist parties engage in partisan motivated reasoning – that is, they are driven by the desire to be consistent with their partisan allegiances – and that (2) they engage in partisan motivated reasoning more intensely than their non-populist counterparts because populist party cues strongly prompt them to process biased information. Drawing on data from the European Social Survey, it is evidenced that populist supporters express much warmer economic views when their parties hold power. Warm economic views are also found to increase significantly more in accordance with strength of partisanship and exposure to political information for populist supporters than for non-populist supporters when their respective parties govern. Results highlight a mechanism by which populist incumbents are likely to remain attractive despite their poor economic record. They have implications for our understanding of the mainstreaming of populist parties in Europe.

Type
Research Note
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of European Consortium for Political Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Akkerman, Agnes, et al.How Populist Are the People? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Voters.” Comparative Political Studies 47 (2014): 1324–53.10.1177/0010414013512600CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Akkerman, Agnes, et al.‘We the People’ or ‘We the Peoples’? A Comparison of Support for the Populist Radical Right and Populist Radical Left in the Netherlands.” Swiss Political Science Review 23 (2017): 377403. https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Akkerman, Tjitske, ed. et al. Radical Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe: Into the Mainstream? London: Routledge, 2016.10.4324/9781315687988CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Akkerman, Tjitske, and de Lange, Sarah L.. “Radical Right Parties in Office: Incumbency Records and the Electoral Cost of Governing.” Government and Opposition 47 (2012): 574–96. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2012.01375.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anson, Ian G.‘That’s Not How It Works’: economic Indicators and the Construction of Partisan Economic Narratives.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27 (2017): 213–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2016.1215319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, Jack. “The Fact Remains: party ID Moderates How Voters Respond to Economic Change.” Electoral Studies 61 (2019): 102071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2019.102071.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bakker, Bert N., et al.The Populist Appeal: personality and Antiestablishment Communication.” The Journal of Politics 83 (Apr. 2021): 589601. https://doi.org/10.1086/710014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bankert, Alexa, et al.Measuring Partisanship as a Social Identity in Multi-Party Systems.” Political Behavior 39 (2017): 103–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-016-9349-5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M.Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 24 (2002): 117–50.10.1023/A:1021226224601CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bisgaard, Martin. “Bias Will Find a Way: Economic Perceptions, Attributions of Blame, and Partisan-Motivated Reasoning during Crisis.” The Journal of Politics 77 (2015): 849–60. https://doi.org/10.1086/681591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolsen, Toby, et al.The Influence of Partisan Motivated Reasoning on Public Opinion.” Political Behavior 36 (2014): 235–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-013-9238-0.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bos, Linda, et al.The Effects of Populism as a Social Identity Frame on Persuasion and Mobilisation: Evidence from a 15-Country Experiment.” European Journal of Political Research 59 (2020): 324. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12334.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, et al. The American Voter. New York: Wiley & Sons, 1960.Google Scholar
Carlin, Ryan E., et al.When Does the Public Get It Right? The Information Environment and the Accuracy of Economic Sentiment.” Comparative Political Studies 54 (Aug. 2021): 1499–533. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414021989758.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Castanho Silva, Bruno. “‘He’s Not One of Them!’ Antiestablishment Supporters of Populist Governments in Bolivia and Ecuador.” The Journal of Politics 81 (2019): 1085–9. https://doi.org/10.1086/703071.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chou, Winston, et al.Competing for Loyalists? How Party Positioning Affects Populist Radical Right Voting.” Comparative Political Studies 54 (2021): 2226–60. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414021997166.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, Russell J.The Blinders of Partisanship.” In Research Handbook on Political Partisanship, edited by Oscarsson, Henrik and Holmberg, Sören. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2020, pp. 7488.Google Scholar
Ditto, Peter H., et al.At Least Bias Is Bipartisan: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Partisan Bias in Liberals and Conservatives.” Perspectives on Psychological Science 14 (Mar. 2019): 273–91. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691617746796.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Döring, Holger, and Regel, Sven. “Party Facts: A Database of Political Parties Worldwide.” Party Politics 25 (2019): 97109. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068818820671.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Egelhofer, Jana Laura, et al.Populist Attitudes and Politicians’ Disinformation Accusations: effects on Perceptions of Media and Politicians.” Journal of Communication 72 (Dec. 2022): 619–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqac031.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enns, Peter K., et al.The Consequences of Partisanship in Economic Perceptions.” Public Opinion Quarterly 76 (2012): 287310. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fahey, James J., et al.When Populists Win: how Right-Wing Populism Affects Democratic Satisfaction in the U.K. and Germany.” Electoral Studies 77 (June 2022): 102469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funke, Manuel, et al.Populist Leaders and the Economy.” Kiel Working Paper 2169 (2020): 1188.Google Scholar
Gerstlé, Jacques, and Nai, Alessandro. “Negativity, Emotionality and Populist Rhetoric in Election Campaigns Worldwide, and Their Effects on Media Attention and Electoral Success.” European Journal of Communication 34 (2019): 410–44. https://doi.org/10.1177/0267323119861875.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Goovaerts, Ine, et al.Drivers of Support for the Populist Radical Left and Populist Radical Right in Belgium.” Politics of the Low Countries 2 (2020): 228–64. https://doi.org/10.5553/PLC/258999292020002003002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, Donald P., et al. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002.Google Scholar
Groenendyk, Eric. Competing Motives in the Partisan Mind: How Loyalty and Responsiveness Shape Party Identification and Democracy. New York: Oxford University Press, 2013.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199969807.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hameleers, Michael. “My Reality Is More Truthful Than Yours: Radical Right-Wing Politicians’ and Citizens’ Construction of ‘Fake’ and ‘Truthfulness’ on Social Media—Evidence From the United States and The Netherlands.” International Journal of Communication 14 (2020a): 18.Google Scholar
Hameleers, Michael. “Populist Disinformation: exploring Intersections between Online Populism and Disinformation in the US and the Netherlands.” Politics and Governance 8 (2020b): 146–57. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v8i1.2478.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hameleers, Michael. Populist Disinformation in Fragmented Information Settings: understanding the Nature and Persuasiveness of Populist and Post-Factual Communication: Routledge, 2021a, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003194668.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hameleers, Michael. “The Effects of Populist Identity Framing on Populist Attitudes Across Europe: Evidence From a 15-Country Comparative Experiment.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 33 (2021b): 491510. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edaa018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kam, Cindy D.Who Toes the Party Line? Cues, Values, and Individual Differences.” Political Behavior 27 (2005): 163–82.10.1007/s11109-005-1764-yCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krause, Werner, and Wagner, Aiko. “Becoming Part of the Gang? Established and Nonestablished Populist Parties and the Role of External Efficacy.” Party Politics 27 (2021): 161–73. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068819839210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lavine, Howard G., et al. The Ambivalent Partisan: How Critical Loyalty Promotes Democracy. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2012.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199772759.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeper, Thomas J., and Slothuus, Rune. “Political Parties, Motivated Reasoning, and Public Opinion Formation.” Political Psychology 35 (Sept. 2018): 129–56. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lodge, Milton, and Taber, Charles S.. The Rationalizing Voter: Cambridge University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139032490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matthews, J. Scott, and Pickup, Mark. “Rational Learners or Impervious Partisans? Economic News and Partisan Bias in Economic Perceptions.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 52 (2019): 303–21. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423918000501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayer, Sabrina Jasmin. “How Negative Partisanship Affects Voting Behavior in Europe: Evidence from an Analysis of 17 European Multi-Party Systems with Proportional Voting.” Research & Politics 4 (2017): 17. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168016686636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medeiros, Mike, and Noël, Alain. “The Forgotten Side of Partisanship: negative Party Identification in Four Anglo-American Democracies.” Comparative Political Studies 47 (2014): 1022–46. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013488560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meléndez, Carlos, and Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal. “Political Identities: The Missing Link in the Study of Populism.” Party Politics 25 (July 2019): 520–33. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068817741287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merkley, Eric. “Anti-Intellectualism, Populism, and Motivated Resistance to Expert Consensus.” Public Opinion Quarterly 84 (2020): 2448. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz053.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morisi, Davide, and Wagner, Markus. “Bringing People Closer to the Elites: the Effect of Information on Populist Attitudes.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 33 (2021): 664–77. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edaa033.Google Scholar
Muis, Jasper, et al.Arrived in Power, and Yet Still Disgruntled? How Government Inclusion Moderates ‘Protest Voting’ for Far-Right Populist Parties in Europe.” Government and Opposition (2021): 130. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2021.46.Google Scholar
Nai, Alessandro, et al.Hardwired to Attack. Candidates’ Personality Traits and Negative Campaigning in Three European Countries.” Acta Politica 57 (2022): 772–97. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-021-00222-7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Okolikj, Martin, and Hooghe, Marc. “Is There a Partisan Bias in the Perception of the State of the Economy? A Comparative Investigation of European Countries, 2002–2016.” International Political Science Review 43 (2022): 240–58. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512120915907.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petersen, Michael Bang, et al.Motivated Reasoning and Political Parties: Evidence for Increased Processing in the Face of Party Cues.” Political Behavior 35 (2013): 831–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-012-9213-1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramirez, Mark D., and Erickson, Nathan. “Partisan Bias and Information Discounting in Economic Judgments.” Political Psychology 35 (2014): 401–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12064.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robison, Joshua. “Does Social Disagreement Attenuate Partisan Motivated Reasoning? A Test Case Concerning Economic Evaluations.” British Journal of Political Science 50 (Oct. 2020): 1245–61. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000315.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rooduijn, Matthijs, et al.Expressing or Fuelling Discontent? The Relationship between Populist Voting and Political Discontent.” Electoral Studies 43 (Sept. 2016): 3240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.04.006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rooduijn, Matthijs, et al. The PopuList: An Overview of Populist, Far Right, Far Left and Eurosceptic Parties in Europe, 2019. www.popu-list.org.Google Scholar
Rooduijn, Matthijs, and van Slageren, Jaap. “Office Participation and the Dissipating Populism-Distrust Connection.” Electoral Studies 78 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102488.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schmidt-Catran, Alexander W., and Fairbrother, Malcolm. “The Random Effects in Multilevel Models: getting Them Wrong and Getting Them Right.” European Sociological Review 32 (2016): 2338. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcv090.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schulz, Anne, et al.We Are the People and You Are Fake News: A Social Identity Approach to Populist Citizens’ False Consensus and Hostile Media Perceptions.” Communication Research 47 (2018): 201–26. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650218794854.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spruyt, Bram, et al.Who Supports Populism and What Attracts People to It?Political Research Quarterly 69 (2016): 335–46. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912916639138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanig, Piero. “Political Polarization in Retrospective Economic Evaluations during Recessions and Recoveries.” Electoral Studies 32 (2013): 729–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.05.029.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Kessel, Stijn, et al.Informed, Uninformed or Misinformed? A Cross-National Analysis of Populist Party Supporters across European Democracies.” West European Politics 44 (Apr. 2021): 585610. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2019.1700448.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Kessel, Stijn, et al. Populist Parties in Europe: Agents of Discontent? Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.10.1057/9781137414113CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Spanje, Joost. “Keeping the Rascals in: anti-Political-Establishment Parties and Their Cost of Governing in Established Democracies.” European Journal of Political Research 50 (2011): 609–35. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01984.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voogd, Remko, and Dassonneville, Ruth. “Are the Supporters of Populist Parties Loyal Voters? Dissatisfaction and Stable Voting for Populist Parties.” Government and Opposition (Sept. 2018): 122. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.24.Google Scholar
Wirz, Dominique S.Persuasion Through Emotion? An Experimental Test of the Emotion-Eliciting Nature of Populist Communication.” International Journal of Communication 12 (2018): 25.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Gonthier supplementary material

Gonthier supplementary material

Download Gonthier supplementary material(File)
File 2.1 MB