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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 March 2014
For The Last Fifty Years, Italian Politics Have Been remarkably static and predictable: one party (the Christian Democrats) always came out on top, while the Left was always in opposition. Yet in the most unexpected fashion all this changed in April 1996: for the first time in the history of the Italian Republic, a left-wing government has been returned. While the historial significance of the 1996 elections cannot be disputed, it is much more difficult to explain the causes of such radical political change. Compared to the results of the 1996 elections, the elections of 1992 now seem little more than a minor tremor, yet one could argue that the tremors felt in 1992 were part of the same process that delivered the real earthquake four years later. Therefore in searching for an explanation of the recent unexpected political changes in Italy, one should start from the 1992 elections.
1 The books reviewed in Part I of this article are as follows: Gianfranco Pasquino and Patrick McCarthy (eds), The End of Post‐War Politics in Italy. The Landmark 1992 Elections, Boulder, Co. and Oxford, Westview Press, 1993, 187 pp., 1995 paperback 21.95; Steven Warner and Diego Gambetta, La Retorica della Riforma: Fine del Sistema Proporzionale in Italia, Torino, Einaudi, 1994, 176 pp., L.16.000; Ilvo Diamanti and Renato Mannheimer, Milano a Roma: Guida all’Italia Elettorale del 1994, Rome, Donzelli Editore, 1994, xxii + 169 pp., L.18.000; Gundle, Stephen and Parker, Simon (eds), The New Italian Republic: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to Berlusconi, London and New York, Routledge, 1996, Vii + 334 pp., paperback 14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar95; Salvatori, Massimo L., Storia d’Italia e Crisi di Regime, Bologna, II Mulino, 1994, 109 pp., L.12.000.Google Scholar
The results of the 1996 elections are analysed in Part II of this article.
2 I am grateful to Simon Burgess, Shari Garmise, Rosa Mulé, Amalia de Romanis and Federico Varese for their help during the preparation of Part II of this article. I am also grateful to the various sites on Italian politics on the internet for providing me with the information I required for my research.
3 See for example Barry, B. ‘Is Democracy Special?’, in Barry, B. Democracy, Power and Justice, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1989.Google Scholar
4 Bobbio, N., The Future of Democracy, Cambridge, Polity Press, 1987,Google Scholar p.106. The growing concerns of multiculturalism have made this an even more pressing question, see for example Kymlicka, W., Multicultural Citizenship, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1996.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
5 See for example Gray, J., Liberalisms, London, Routledge, 1989.Google Scholar
6 As B. Barry, op. cit, points out, ‘by a democratic procedure I mean a method of determining the content of laws (and other legally binding decisions) such that the preferences of the citizens have some formal connection with the outcome in which each counts equally’, p. 25. The point is that a system is democratic if its procedures are seen as being acceptable by the people who are being governed.
7 Dahl, R., Democracy and Its Critics, New Haven, Conn., Yale University Press, 1993, p. 222.Google Scholar
8 The political monopoly of the Japanese liberal‐democratic party (Jiminto), which endured for 38 years, came to an end in 1993.
9 See Waldron, J., ‘Theoretical Foundations of Liberalism’, in The Philosophical Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 147, 1987.Google Scholar
10 On the importance of trust in fostering cooperative relations, see D. Gambetta (ed.), Trust, Oxford, Blackwell, 1988. In particular, on the affinity between liberalism and trust, see the chapter by N. Luhmann ‘Familiarity, Confidence, Trust: Problems and Alternatives’, p. 99.
11 This refers to the votes for the Chamber of Deputies. The Democratic Party of the Left won 7,897,000 votes, and Forza Italia 7,715,000 votes. See II Corriere delta Sera, 23 April 1996.
12 The impact of the electoral system of the 1996 election was so great that perhaps the system itself was the outright winner of the elections. I will pursue this question at a later stage in this article.
13 In 1994 this included Forza Italia, National Alliance, Northern League, Christian Democratic Centre, Union of the Centre, Pannella List. In 1996 it included Forza Italia, National Alliance, Christian Democratic Centre, Union of the Centre.
14 In 1994 this includes Forza Italia, National Alliance and Northern League. In 1996 it includes Forza Italia, National Alliance, and Christian Democratic Centre – Union of the Centre.
15 In 1994 this included Democratic Party of the Left, Socialist Party, Socialist Rebirth, Communist Refoundation, Greens, Democratic Alliance, The Network, Christian Social. In 1996 it included Democratic Party of the Left, Dini List, Greens, For Prodi (Italian Popular Party, South Tyrol People’s Party, Italian Republican Party, Democratic Union).
16 In 1994 this included the Democratic Party of the Left and Communist Refoundation. In 1996 it included the Democratic Party of the Left, Communist Refoundation, Dini List, Greens, For Prodi (Italian Popular Party, South Tyrol People’s Party, Italian Republican Party, Democratic Union).
17 As Sir Karl Popper suggested in his unmistakably confident style ‘Nor is it to be regretted that induction does not exist: we seem to do quite well without it – with theories which are bold guesses, and which we criticize and test as severely as we can, and with as much ingenuity as we possess.’. See K. Popper, Unended Quest: An Intellectual Autobiography, La Salle and London, Open Court, 1982, p.148.
18 After the 1994 electoral fiasco, Occhetto’s wisdom in standing as leader of the PDS and of the left‐wing Progressist Alliance was put into question. See for example G. Pasquino, ‘Un Leader Nuovo? No, Ce Ne Servono Due’ and G. Bosetti, ‘Professionisti del Presente’, both in Reset, June 1994, No. 7.
19 I am grateful to Federico Varese for pointing this out.
20 The radical neo‐fascist Italian Social Movement was formally dissolved in 1995, being replaced by Fini’s moderate ‘post‐fascist’ National Alliance. Notwithstanding its electoral success, Fini’s leadership was strongly criticized for disowning the fascist tradition. Therefore in view of the 1996 elections Pino Rauti set up his own neo‐fascist party, Movimento Sociale‐Fiamma Tricolors. For an account of the relationship between Fini’s National Alliance and the old Italian Social Movement, see C. Ruzza and O. Schmidtke, ‘Towards a Modern Right: Alleanza Nazionale and the “Italian Revolution”’, in S. Gundle and S. Parker (eds), The New Italian Republic: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to Berlusconi, London, Routledge, 1996. For the view that there is no substantial difference between Fini’s National Alliance and the old Italian Social Movement, see P. Ignazi, ‘Alleanza Nazionale’, in I. Diamanti and R. Mannheimer (eds), Milano a Roma: Guida all’Italia Elettorale del 1994, Rome, Donzelli, 1994.
21 A. Panebianco, ‘Doppio Errore Per il Polo’, II Corriere della Sera, 3 May 1996.
22 On Steven Warner and Diego Gambetta’s La Retorica della Riforma, see above, p. 325.
23 Mannheimer, R., ‘Nessun Vento di Sinistra sulle Elezioni’, II Corriere delta sera, 29 04 1996.Google Scholar
24 Sartori, G., ‘Un Paese Senza Gambe’, II Corriere della Sera, 6 05 1996.Google Scholar
25 The Left elected 40 of the 60 women in the Chamber of Deputies (33 in the Olive Tree alliance and 7 in Communist Refoundation), and 18 of the 25 in the Senate (17 in the Olive Tree alliance and 1 in Communist Refoundation). See II Corriere delta Sera, 25 April 1996.
26 Bobbio, N. ‘L’Alternanza Sblocca la Democrazia’, La Stampa, 23 04 1996.Google Scholar
27 See Laver, M. and Schofield, N., Multiparty Government: The Politics of Coalition in Europe, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1990.Google Scholar
28 See Mulé, R., ‘Party Competition and the Hierarchy of Goals’, in Lovenduski, J. and Stanyer, J. (eds), Contemporary Political Studies 1995, Volume I, The Political Studies Association of the United Kingdom, 1995.Google Scholar
