This article is a review of liver transplantation in adults, in the context of ongoing technology assessments of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Liver transplantation in adults has become an accepted therapeutic procedure for end-stage liver disease, as it is practiced in established programs of a number of experienced institutions. The number of medical centers instituting programs of liver transplantation has greatly increased since the 1983 NIH Consensus Conference on this subject, and this article traces the clear relationship between the experience level of the institution and the end result of adult transplantation. Five determinants of the survival rate, safety, and efficacy of liver transplantation are discussed: the supply of donor organs, the selection criteria for transplantation candidates, surgical technique, the support system and support staff available, and adequate suppression of the immunological response. Medical diagnoses most likely to produce successful results are enumerated.

It has been suggested that preoperative total parentetal nutrition may be used to reduce the risk of nutrition-associated postoperative complications in high-risk patients. These patients can be identified based on their nutritional status. The efficiency of this intervention is assessed using the technique of cost-utility analysis. Data from multiple sources is integrated to perform the economic assessment.

The cost-utility ratios for treating several malnourished patients with localized upper gastrointestinal cancer are below $40,000. These cost-utility ratios compare favorably with published results of other programs. The ratios increase considerably if patients who are better nourished (at lower risk of postoperative complication) receive the intervention. The analysis is very sensitive to the efficacy of the intervention.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a high-cost, new technology with great potential for improving patient care. The lack of a coherent public policy for MRI, or its predecessor computed tomography (CT), has caused considerable problems. Lack of an enunciated public policy has led to inconsistent reimbursement and reimbursement levels that develop in haphazard ways. Furthermore, diffusion has been unpredictable and has led to geographical excesses and deficiencies.

Technology assessments of MRI, although numerous, have used inconsistent criteria to rate MRI's clinical efficacy. The lack of methodologically sound studies of MRI severely hampered early evaluation. This article examines these problems and suggests that the medical profession take a stronger leadership role in developing policies for expensive, promising new diagnostic technologies. The profession should promote, demand, and perform rigorous clinical evaluations of new technologies, and help develop a consensus regarding the criteria for what constitutes a clinically valuable advance in diagnostic technology.

Medical-technical possibilities are often experienced as being strongly compelling. This imperative character of medical technology not only applies to the medical profession, but also to patients who frequently find it very difficult to refuse medical examinations or treatments. This article discusses the technological imperative with regard to patients. It attempts to discover relationships with decision theory, particularly concerning “anticipated decision regret:” The fact that prevention of regret plays an important role in the use of medical technology is illustrated through a number of examples: liver transplantation, prenatal diagnosis, screening, and in vitro fertilization.

Once the effects of short-term data analysis of new medical technology appear clear, additional or long-term analyses are infrequently performed on subsequent information. This often leads to incomplete understanding of the technology's full medical, social, and economic effects.

Available data for the Federal Republic of Germany on mortality, hospitalization, and work loss due to gastric and duodenal ulcer and gastritis/duodenitis allowed long-term analysis of direct and indirect impacts on the population from 1975 through 1984. Mortality rates declined for all ages (ρ ≤ 0.01) except for those age 75 and older, and nearly equally for all study diagnoses. Hospital discharge rates for all diagnoses rose slowly and steadily, while those for persons diagnosed with gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer or gastritis/duodenitis declined sharply (ρ = 0.04). Declines of hospital discharges were greater for men than for women. The ongoing decline in rates of mortality and hospital discharges increased after 1977. Rates of work loss per 10,000 population-at-risk for study diagnoses were either stable or increasing until 1979, after which there was a marked decline (ρ = 0.03 for gastric ulcer, ρ = 0.02 for duodenal ulcer, ρ = 0.008 for gastritis/duodenitis). Work loss due to study diseases declined as a percentage of work loss for all diseases during the later study years. Only by examining many years' data could the accelerating declines be discerned, not only for mortality and hospitalizations, which have been examined before, but also for work loss, an infrequently analyzed effect of disease.

The development and diffusion of health-related technologies constitute an extremely complex process. This article examines the phenomenon of technological innovation; discusses the factors determining the diffusion of high, medium, and low technologies; and suggests strategies for controlling the diffusion of these technologies. A research program is also proposed that should improve our understanding of the process of development and diffusion of health-related technologies.

We evaluated trends in the use of echocardiography among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, from January 1, 1975, through June 30, 1987. Annual examinations per 100,000 population among Olmsted County residents increased 6-fold from 264 in 1975 to 1,644 in 1986. Given the pattern of echo use in Olmsted County, these population-based data project a potential annual utilization of 4 million echo exams in the United States. Marked increases over time in labeling of patients with regurgitant valvular heart disease were noted following the introduction of Doppler echocardiography. The diagnostic labeling associated with this evolving technology and the resultant apparent epidemic of valvular regurgitation present a significant clinical technology assessment dilemma.

A rapidly growing interest in medical technology assessment has been noted in Sweden during the last 5 years. This interest is reflected both in a variety of research efforts and in new organizational arrangements for coordination and stimulus of research. A special area of concern is a group of mechanisms to make the results of assessment useful to medical practitioners and in the political and administrative process within health care.

Since 1982, the Medical Research Council of the Academy of Finland, together with other interested parties, has tried to develop systematically the evaluation research of medical technology. The broadly based working group set up by the Council is preparing a program dealing with this issue to promote research work and the training of researchers. The arrangement of consensus development conferences, held on various topics in many countries, is another means of reaching these goals. In Finland, the arrangement of such conferences has been the responsibility of the Medical Research Council.