Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T01:42:23.165Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 September 2016

Muhammet A. Bas  and
Andrew J. Coe
Get access

Abstract

We develop a formal model of bargaining between two states where one can invest in a program to develop nuclear weapons and the other imperfectly observes its efforts and progress over time. In the absence of a nonproliferation deal, the observing state watches the former's program, waiting until proliferation seems imminent to attack. Chance elements—when the program will make progress and when the other state will discover this—determine outcomes. Surprise proliferation, crises over the suspected progress of a nuclear program, and possibly “mistaken” preventive wars arise endogenously from these chance elements. Consistent with the model's predictions and contrary to previous studies, the empirical evidence shows that the progress of a nuclear program and intelligence estimates of it explain the character and outcomes of most interactions between a proliferant and a potential preventive attacker. Counterintuitively, policies intended to reduce proliferation by delaying nuclear programs or improving monitoring capabilities may instead encourage it.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 70 , Issue 4 , Fall 2016 , pp. 655 - 685
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baliga, Sandeep, and Sjöström, Tomas. 2008. Strategic Ambiguity and Arms Proliferation. Journal of Political Economy 116 (6):1023–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bas, Muhammet A., and Coe, Andrew J.. 2012. Arms Diffusion and War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (4):651–74.Google Scholar
Beardsley, Kyle, and Asal, Victor. 2009. Winning with the Bomb. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (2):278–301.Google Scholar
Benson, Brett, and Wen, Quan. 2011. A Bargaining Model of Nuclear Weapons Development and Disarmament. In Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation, edited by Rauchhaus, Robert, Kroenig, Matthew, and Gartzke, Erik, 45–62. New York: Taylor and Francis.Google Scholar
Bleek, Philipp C., and Lorber, Eric B.. 2014. Security Guarantees and Allied Nuclear Proliferation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (3):429–54.Google Scholar
Brands, Hal, and Palkki, David. 2011. Saddam, Israel, and the Bomb: Nuclear Alarmism Justified? International Security 36 (1):133–66.Google Scholar
Brown, Robert L., and Kaplow, Jeffrey M.. 2014. Talking Peace, Making Weapons: IAEA Technical Cooperation and Nuclear Proliferation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58 (3):402–28.Google Scholar
Burr, William, and Richelson, Jeffrey T.. 2001. Whether to “Strangle the Baby in the Cradle”: The United States and the Chinese Nuclear Program, 1960–64. International Security 25 (3):54–99.Google Scholar
Coe, Andrew J., and Vaynman, Jane. 2015. Collusion and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime. Journal of Politics 77 (4):983–97.Google Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Monteiro, Nuno P.. 2014. Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainty, and War. International Organization 68 (1):1–31.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 2011. Arming and Arms Races. Paper presented at the 2010 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Feaver, Peter D., and Niou, Emerson M.S.. 1996. Managing Nuclear Proliferation: Condemn, Strike, or Assist? International Studies Quarterly 40 (2):209–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fuhrmann, Matthew. 2009. Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Co-operation Agreements. International Security 34 (1):7–41.Google Scholar
Fuhrmann, Matthew, and Kreps, Sarah E.. 2010. Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace: A Quantitative Empirical Analysis, 1941–2000. Journal of Conflict Resolution 54 (6):831–59.Google Scholar
Gavin, Francis J. 2012. Politics, History and the Ivory Tower-Policy Gap in the Nuclear Proliferation Debate. Journal of Strategic Studies 35 (4):573–600.Google Scholar
Jackson, Matthew O., and Morelli, Massimo. 2009. Strategic Militarization, Deterrence and Wars. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 4 (4):279–313.Google Scholar
Jo, Dong-Joon, and Gartzke, Erik. 2007. Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (1):167–94.Google Scholar
Kahl, Colin H. 2012. Not Time to Attack Iran. Foreign Affairs 91:166–73.Google Scholar
Kroenig, Matthew. 2009. Importing the Bomb: Sensitive Nuclear Assistance and Nuclear Proliferation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (2):161–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kroenig, Matthew. 2012. Time to Attack Iran. Foreign Affairs 91:76–86.Google Scholar
Kroenig, Matthew. 2013. Nuclear Superiority and the Balance of Resolve: Explaining Nuclear Crisis Outcomes. International Organization 67 (1):141–71.Google Scholar
Meirowitz, Adam, and Sartori, Anne E.. 2008. Strategic Uncertainty As a Cause of War. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3 (4):327–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Nicholas L. 2014. The Secret Success of Nonproliferation Sanctions. International Organization 68 (4):913–44.Google Scholar
Montgomery, Alexander H., and Mount, Adam. 2014. Misestimation: Explaining US Failures to Predict Nuclear Weapons Programs. Intelligence and National Security 29 (3):357–86.Google Scholar
Montgomery, Alexander H., and Sagan, Scott D.. 2009. The Perils of Predicting Proliferation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (2):302–28.Google Scholar
Narang, Vipin. 2014. Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
National Intelligence Council. 2007. Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/international/20071203_release.pdf. Accessed 28 February 2016.Google Scholar
Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2011. Iran Nuclear Chronology. http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/iran_nuclear.pdf?_=1316542527. Accessed 28 February 2016.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1993. Guns, Butter, and Anarchy. American Political Science Review 87 (1):115–32.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 2015. Nuclear Brinkmanship, Limited War, and Military Power. International Organization 69 (3):589–626.Google Scholar
Rabinowitz, Or, and Miller, Nicholas L.. 2015. Keeping the Bombs in the Basement: US Nonproliferation Policy toward Israel, South Africa, and Pakistan. International Security 40 (1):47–86.Google Scholar
Sadot, Uri. Forthcoming. Osirak and the Counter-Proliferation Puzzle. Security Studies.Google Scholar
Sechser, Todd S., and Fuhrmann, Matthew. 2013. Crisis Bargaining and Nuclear Blackmail. International Organization 67 (1):173–95.Google Scholar
Singh, Sonali, and Way, Christopher R.. 2004. The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation: A Quantitative Test. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (6):859–85.Google Scholar
US Central Intelligence Agency. 1974. China's Strategic Attack Programs, NIE 13-8-74. Available at http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/89801/DOC_0001086044.pdf. Accessed 28 February 2016.Google Scholar
US Department of State. 1964. Memorandum of Conversation, November 23, 1964. In Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Vol. 11, Arms Control and Disarmament. US Department of State, Office of the Historian.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 2012. Why Iran Should Get the Bomb. Foreign Affairs 91:2–5.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Bas and Coe supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Bas and Coe supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 322.1 KB
Supplementary material: File

Bas and Coe supplementary material

Bas and Coe supplementary material 1

Download Bas and Coe supplementary material(File)
File 79.1 KB