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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 23 March 2011
In this paper, I shall try to examine and identify the factors responsible for the increase in agricultural output in Communist China in the nineteen fifties. Then I shall try to discuss the implications of my findings in relation to future agricultural growth.
Agricultural Output 1949–1957. Agricultural statistics remain the Achilles' heel in evaluating the performance of the Chinese economy in quantitative terms. For foodgrains, the official statistics show an increase of nearly 43 percent from 1949 to 1952, and nearly 20 percent from 1952 to 1957. These claims are generally regarded as exaggerated. Based on per capita consumption requirements, Liu and Yeh regard the pre-1956 official figures as gross understatements. They accept, however, the official figure for 1957. They allow for no more than 5 percent increase from 1952 to 1957 for the production of food crops. After adjustment of reported cultivated area has been made, Wu's estimate shows virtually no increase in foodgrains from 1952 to 1957. Hollister, after suggesting official understatements for earlier years, accepts the official 1955 figure and estimates that the 1957 production of basic food crops and animal products was 14 percent higher than that of 1952. Jones and Poleman also maintain that the official estimates of grain production were underestimates for 1952–54; they accept the 1955–57 figures. Their estimates put the 1957 level about 12 percent higher than that in 1952. Choh-ming Li, though without making any independent estimates of his own, regards the official figure for 1955 as more reliable or least unsatisfactory for the whole period 1949–57, while considering the pre-1955 years as underestimates and the post-1955 years (that is, 1956 and 1957) as overestimates.
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Mention should be made to the reference to “the unreported farm land before agricultural co-operativization of over 30 million mou” (or 1.85 percent of 1952 cultivated area). This reference was published in 1958; it was not reported when the unreported farmland was discovered or whether it had been incorporated into the official acreage figures. See Hsiao Yu, “Reclaim waste land: expand cultivated acreage,' Chi-hua ching-chi, no. 2, 1958, p. 22Google Scholar, as cited in Richard Y. C. Yin, “Agricultural Reorganization and Crop Production in Mainland China, 1952–1957,” a paper read at the Inaugural Meeting of Asian Studies on the Pacific Coast, June 16–18, 1966.
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17 For agricultural population data, see my “Manpower, Employment and Unemployment in Communist China,” in Economic Trends in Communist China.
18 For a penetrating analysis of the relationship of sown area, yield and output of these 16 crops, see Richard Y. C. Yin, op. cit.
19 It is very difficult to ascertain the effect of fertilizer application on yield because of lack of information on where and how fertilizers were used and how the marginal productivity curve looked. According to Communist estimates, one catty of nitrogen fertilizer can increase foodgrain output by three catties and one catty of phosphate fertilizer can increase foodgrain output by 1.5 catties. The minimum effective requirement of chemical fertilizers, in addition to organic fertilizer, for various crops is estimated at about 25 catties per mou. Liu, and Yeh, , p. 423Google Scholar. For a comparison, see Liu, Jung-chao, “Fertilizer Supply and Grain Production in Communist China,” Journal of Farm Economics, Vol. 47, no. 4, november, 1965CrossRefGoogle Scholar. It may be noted that in terms of domestic production, the ratio between nitrogenous and phosphorous fertilizers was 6 to 1 in 1957 and 3.3 to 1 in 1958. Ibid.
20 Taking 1952 as 100, the index of the number of pigs in 1952–57 is as follows:
Computed from data given in Communist China: Ministry of Agriculture, Bureau of Planning, Chungkuo yu shih-chieh chu-yao kuo-chia nung-yeh sheng-ch'an t'ung-chi tzu-liao hui-p'ien (Peking, 1958), p. 77.Google Scholar
It should be noted that the 1957 official figure is probably grossly exaggerated. For the reasons see Liu, and Yeh, , p. 55.Google Scholar
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28 Richard Y. C. Yin, op. cit.
29 Richard Y. C. Yin, op. cit.
30 Report by Po I-po, JMJP, july 2, 1957Google Scholar. The description for other years: 1952, good; 1953, normal; 1954, poor.
31 The official statistics of the number of pigs in 1957 implies an increase in fertilizer; but as noted before, the official statistics have to be discounted.
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64 The unit yield may be slightly understated for Communist China where sown area is used to estimate total output. For many other countries, harvested area is used. See the reference given in Table 8.
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66 Yin-chu, Ma, “A New Theory of Population,” Hsin-hua Pan-yueh-kan, no. 15, 1957, p. 36.Google Scholar
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68 JMJP, december 19, 1958.Google Scholar
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