Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-7drxs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-23T02:12:29.081Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Holding Horizon: A New Measure of Active Investment Management

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 March 2023

Chunhua Lan
Affiliation:
University of New Brunswick Faculty of Management clan@unb.ca
Fabio Moneta
Affiliation:
University of Ottawa Telfer School of Management fmoneta@uottawa.ca
Russ Wermers
Affiliation:
University of Maryland at College Park Smith School of Business wermers@umd.edu
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

This article introduces a new holding horizon measure of active management and examines its relation to future risk-adjusted fund performance (alpha). Our measure reveals a wide cross-sectional dispersion in mutual fund investment horizons, and shows that long-horizon funds exhibit positive future long-term alphas by holding stocks with superior long-term fundamentals. Further, stocks largely held by long-horizon funds outperform stocks largely held by short-horizon funds by more than $ 3\% $ annually, adjusted for risk, over the following 5-year period. We also find a clientele effect: to reduce liquidity costs, long-horizon funds attract more long-term investors through share classes that carry load fees.

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington

Footnotes

We are grateful to George Aragon, Pierluigi Balduzzi, Hendrik Bessembinder (the editor), Michael Cooper (the referee), Wayne Ferson, Jean-Sebastien Fontaine, Wei Jiang, Pete Kyle, Saurin Patel, Jeff Pontiff, Veronika Pool, Ronnie Sadka, Pauline Shum, Laura Starks, Noah Stoffman, Selim Topaloglu, Wei Wang, Chishen Wei, Zhijie Xiao, Tong Yao, and seminar participants at the UCLA Anderson Finance Conference in Honor of Mark Grinblatt (June 2018), 2018 Asian Finance Association Annual Conference, 2015 American Finance Association, 2015 China International Conference in Finance (CICF), 2015 NFA meetings, 2018 GSU CEAR-Finance conference, 2015 Berlin Asset Management conference, Bank of Canada, LTI@UniTO Webinar, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, University of Illinois at Chicago, University of Maryland at College Park, University of Ottawa, and University of Queensland for their insightful comments.

References

Alexander, G. J.; Cici, G.; and Gibson, S.. “Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds.” Review of Financial Studies, 20 (2007), 125150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ameriks, J., and Zeldes, S. P.. “How Do Household Portfolio Shares Vary with Age?” Working Paper, Columbia University (2004).Google Scholar
Amihud, Y.Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-section and Time-series Effects.” Journal of Financial Markets, 5 (2002), 3156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amihud, Y., and Goyenko, R.. “Mutual Fund’s R 2 as Predictor of Performance.” Review of Financial Studies, 26 (2013), 667694.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balduzzi, P., and Lan, C.. “Survey Forecasts and the Time-Varying Second Moments of Stock and Bond Returns.” Working Paper, Boston College (2014).Google Scholar
Barberis, N., and Shleifer, A.. “Style Investing.” Journal of Financial Economics, 68 (2003), 161199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berk, J. B., and Green, R. C.. “Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets.” Journal of Political Economy, 112 (2004), 12691295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berk, J. B., and van Binsbergen, J. H.. “Measuring Skill in the Mutual Fund Industry.” Journal of Financial Economics, 118 (2015), 120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bessembinder, H.; Cooper, M. J.; and Zhang, F.. “What You See May Not Be What You Get: Return Horizon and Investment Alpha.” Working Paper, Southern Methodist University (2022).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boudoukh, J.; Israel, R.; and Richardson, M.. “Long-Horizon Predictability: A Cautionary Tale.” Financial Analysts Journal, 75 (2019), 1730.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, K. C.; Harlow, W. V.; and Starks, L. T.. “Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry.” Journal of Finance, 51 (1996), 85110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bushee, B. J.The Influence of Institutional Investors on Myopic R&D Investment Behavior.” Accounting Review, 73 (1998), 305333.Google Scholar
Bushee, B. J.Do Institutional Investors Prefer Near-Term Earnings Over Long-Run Value?Contemporary Accounting Research, 18 (2001), 207246.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y., and Shiller, R. J.. “The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors.” Review of Financial Studies, 1 (1988), 195228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carhart, M. M.On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 5782.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carhart, M. M.; Kaniel, R.; Musto, D. K.; and Reed, A. V.. “Leaning for the Tape: Evidence of Gaming Behavior in Equity Mutual Funds.” Journal of Finance, 57 (2002), 661693.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cella, C.; Ellul, A.; and Giannetti, M.. “Investors’ Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks.” Review of Financial Studies, 26 (2013), 16071648.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, L. K.; Chen, H.-L.; and Lakonishok, J.. “On Mutual Fund Investment Styles.” Review of Financial Studies, 15 (2002), 14071437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chevalier, J., and Ellison, G.. “Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives.” Journal of Political Economy, 105 (1997), 11671200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chordia, T.The Structure of Mutual Fund Charges.” Journal of Financial Economics, 41 (1996), 339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, R. B.; Coval, J. D.; and Pástor, L.. “Judging Fund Managers by the Company they Keep.” Journal of Finance, 60 (2005), 10571096.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, L.; Frazzini, A.; and Malloy, C.. “The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns.” Journal of Political Economy, 116 (2008), 951979.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cooper, M.; Gutierrez, R. C. Jr; and Marcum, B.. “On the Predictability of Stock Returns in Real Time.” Journal of Business, 78 (2005), 469500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cremers, M., and Pareek, A.. “Short-Term Trading and Stock Return Anomalies: Momentum, Reversal, and Share Issuance.” Review of Finance, 19 (2015), 16491701.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cremers, M., and Pareek, A.. “Patient Capital Outperformance: The Investment Skill of High Active Share Managers who Trade Infrequently.” Journal of Financial Economics, 122 (2016), 288306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cremers, K. M., and Petajisto, A.. “How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure that Predicts Performance.” Review of Financial Studies, 22 (2009), 33293365.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Da, Z.; Liu, Q.; and Schaumburg, E.. “A Closer Look at the Short-Term Return Reversal.” Management Science, 60 (2014), 658674.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Da, Z., and Warachka, M. C.. “Cashflow Risk, Systematic Earnings Revisions, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics, 94 (2009), 448468.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daniel, K.; Grinblatt, M.; Titman, S.; and Wermers, R.. “Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks.” Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 10351058.Google Scholar
De Bondt, W. F., and Thaler, R.. “Does the Stock Market Overreact?Journal of Finance, 40 (1985), 793805.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Del Guercio, D.The Distorting Effect of the Prudent-Man Laws on Institutional Equity Investments.” Journal of Financial Economics, 40 (1996), 3162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edelen, R. M.Investor Flows and the Assessed Performance of Open-End Mutual Funds.” Journal of Financial Economics, 53 (1999), 439466.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Falkenstein, E. G.Preferences for Stock Characteristics as Revealed by Mutual Fund Portfolio Holdings.” Journal of Finance, 51 (1996), 111135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F.Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance.” Journal of Financial Economics, 49 (1998), 283306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics, 33 (1993), 356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “A Five-factor Asset Pricing Model.” Journal of Financial Economics, 116 (2015), 122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and MacBeth, J. D.. “Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests.” Journal of Political Economy, 81 (1973), 607636.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frankel, R., and Lee, C. M.. “Accounting Valuation, Market Expectation, and Cross-Sectional Stock Returns.” Journal of Accounting and Economics, 25 (1998), 283319.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frazzini, A.; Friedman, J.; and Pomorski, L.. “Deactivating Active Share.” Financial Analysts Journal, 72 (2016), 1421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Froot, K. A.; Scharfstein, D. S.; and Stein, J. C.. “Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation.” Journal of Finance, 47 (1992), 14611484.Google Scholar
Gaspar, J.-M.; Massa, M.; and Matos, P.. “Shareholder Investment Horizons and the Market for Corporate Control.” Journal of Financial Economics, 76 (2005), 135165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grinblatt, M., and Titman, S.. “Performance Measurement Without Benchmarks: An Examination of Mutual Fund Returns.” Journal of Business, 66 (1993), 4768.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haugen, R. A., and Lakonishok, J.. “The Incredible January Effect: The Stock Market’s Unsolved Mystery.” Dow Jones-Irwin (1988).Google Scholar
Hunter, D.; Kandel, E.; Kandel, S.; and Wermers, R.. “Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation with Active Peer Benchmarks.” Journal of Financial Economics, 112 (2014), 129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jegadeesh, N., and Titman, S.. “Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency.” Journal of Finance, 48 (1993), 6591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jensen, M. C.The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945–1964.” Journal of Finance, 23 (1968), 389416.Google Scholar
Kacperczyk, M.; Sialm, C.; and Zheng, L.. “On the Industry Concentration of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds.” Journal of Finance, 60 (2005), 19832011.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kacperczyk, M.; Sialm, C.; and Zheng, L.. “Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds.” Review of Financial Studies, 21 (2008), 23792416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kamara, A.; Korajczyk, R. A.; Lou, X.; and Sadka, R.. “Horizon Pricing.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 51 (2016), 17691793.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kyle, A. S.; Obizhaeva, A. A.; and Wang, Y.. “Smooth Trading with Overconfidence and Market Power.” Review of Economic Studies, 85 (2018), 611662.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levhari, D., and Levy, H.. “The Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Investment Horizon.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 59 (1977), 92104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, O. S.; Mottola, G. R.; Utkus, S. P.; and Yamaguchi, T.. “The Inattentive Participant: Portfolio Trading Behavior in 401(k) Plans.” Michigan Retirement Research Center Research Paper No. 115 (2006).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nanda, V.; Narayanan, M.; and Warther, V. A.. “Liquidity, Investment Ability, and Mutual Fund Structure.” Journal of Financial Economics, 57 (2000), 417443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nanda, V. K.; Wang, Z. J.; and Zheng, L.. “The ABCs of Mutual Funds: On the Introduction of Multiple Share Classes.” Journal of Financial Intermediation, 18 (2009), 329361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newey, W. K., and West, K. D.. “A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica, 55 (1987), 703708.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pástor, L.; Sinha, M.; and Swaminathan, B.. “Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital.” Journal of Finance, 63 (2008), 28592897.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pástor, L., and Stambaugh, R. F.. “Mutual Fund Performance and Seemingly Unrelated Assets.” Journal of Financial Economics, 63 (2002), 315349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pástor, L., and Stambaugh, R. F.. “Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns.” Journal of Political Economy, 111 (2003), 642685.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pástor, L.; Stambaugh, R. F.; and Taylor, L. A.. “Do Funds Make More When They Trade More?Journal of Finance, 72 (2017), 14831528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesaran, M. H., and Timmermann, A.. “Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance.” Journal of Finance, 50 (1995), 12011228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petajisto, A.Active Share and Mutual Fund Performance.” Financial Analysts Journal, 69 (2013), 7393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Porter, M. E.Capital Choices: Changing the Way America Invests in Industry.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 5 (1992), 416.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richardson, M., and Smith, T.. “Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations.” Review of Financial Studies, 4 (1991), 227254.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ritter, J. R., and Chopra, N.. “Portfolio Rebalancing and the Turn-of-the-Year Effect.” Journal of Finance, 44 (1989), 149166.Google Scholar
Sensoy, B. A.Performance Evaluation and Self-Designated Benchmark Indexes in the Mutual Fund Industry.” Journal of Financial Economics, 92 (2009), 2539.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shleifer, A., and Vishny, R. W.. “The Limits of Arbitrage.” Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 3555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sirri, E. R., and Tufano, P.. “Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows.” Journal of Finance, 53 (1998), 15891622.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Song, Y.The Mismatch Between Mutual Fund Scale and Skill.” Journal of Finance, 75 (2020), 25552589.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, J. C.Why Are Most Funds Open-End? Competition and the Limits of Arbitrage.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120 (2005), 247272.Google Scholar
Vuolteenaho, T.What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns?Journal of Finance, 57 (2002), 233264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, J.A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information.” Review of Economic Studies, 60 (1993), 249282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wermers, R.Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock-Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses.” Journal of Finance, 55 (2000), 16551695.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wermers, R. “Is Money Really ‘Smart’? New Evidence on the Relation Between Mutual Fund Flows, Manager Behavior, and Performance Persistence.” Working Paper, University of Maryland (2004).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yan, X., and Zhang, Z.. “Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?Review of Financial Studies, 22 (2009), 893924.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Lan et al. supplementary material

Internet Appendix

Download Lan et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 157.7 KB